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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

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The only consistent theme I can see in this morning set of GFS runs at about day 10 is to have high pressure straddling the UK. 

 

With all the various options on the table it seems to be the only one I can see that tends to crop up a lot at around the 10 day mark, so possibly a settled and rather benign end to the year, it's all going a bit wrong, even the Strat chart seems reluctant to get any decent enough downwelling to get an official SSW. 

 

I think it's going to be another very long winter for us here on NW. 

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The only consistent theme I can see in this morning set of GFS runs at about day 10 is to have high pressure straddling the UK.

With all the various options on the table it seems to be the only one I can see that tends to crop up a lot at around the 10 day mark, so possibly a settled and rather benign end to the year, it's all going a bit wrong, even the Strat chart seems reluctant to get any decent enough downwelling to get an official SSW.

I think it's going to be another very long winter for us here on NW.

We cant write off the whole of winter on a few bad runs you have seen how volatile the models are at the moment i would say fi is 96hrs or so.

Edit After seeing the gefs it does look like we will have to wait until jan for our cold fix. Unless theres the mother of all turn arounds.

Edited by snowangel32

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ECM comes up trumps with a tantalising ending. Not  million miles from a very special chart.

 

GEFS running very late, lots of variance (some good, some not so) in the medium term though.

 

Looking pretty dire still for the Alps over Xmas though.

 

It does look like the period of interest is going to be between Xmas and the end of the year, the foundations of which are being formed. That could well mean that the weather on the ground will not be what everyone will necessarily want to see. Words like toys, prams and patience spring to mind but I'm sure that will fall on deaf ears in some quarters.

Edited by s4lancia

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The GFS P this morning has depressions running up from the south, initially to the east of HP mid Atlantic and then hitting the jet and boarding the circle line and trvelling E/SE. This has the effect of dragging warmer in from the south and above average temps until the end of the run when they dip just below average.

Charts courtesy weatherbell.

post-12275-0-11169700-1418973520_thumb.p

post-12275-0-39043100-1418973531_thumb.p

post-12275-0-73015600-1418973552_thumb.p

post-12275-0-60202000-1418973572_thumb.p

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The broad scheme of things still a pattern to cold with different outcomes which will continue to change.I think the gfs will bring things back east and in line with the ecm on the 12z.That said this is far from sorted with downgrades and upgrades to come.Enjoy the ride and look at the bigger picture.

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Gfs not great again this morning. ECM and we are once again looking at fi for some eye candy. not a great outlook overall.

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Not saw too many Synoptics like this , greeny high , Scandi trough and Azores high ! Think the models are having a wobble to be honest doesn't really teleconnect too the background drivers well at all. We saw the models do this in 09/10 and dec 10 , they drop it and then pick it back up much closer but it needs to change back this next 2 days really .

Otherwise yet another cold spell took from our noses and we never learn !

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Perhaps beginning to see the likely pattern but it's has a very complicated period days 6 to 10. another day or so of angst for many and if it pans out how I expect it to then probably more than a couple.

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Morning all,

GFS operational looks an outlier and propbably one of the milder (wrong)solutions,

gfsnh-0-186.png?0

 

 

Last nights 18z also an outlier as can be seen from the ensemble most runs below average 850 temps,

MT8_London_ens.png

Gem still looking cold for cold,

gemnh-0-138.png?00

UK met agrees,

UN144-21.GIF?19-06

So does ECM,

ECH1-144.GIF?19-12

ECM,GEM go on to build stronger blocks circa Greenland,

gemnh-0-240.png?00

ECH1-216.GIF?19-12

 

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Daddy GFS is not playing with the same scenario as junior but a variation on a similar theme. I would imagine moves are afoot to elevate the ECM to the peerage.

Charts weatherbell

post-12275-0-20845500-1418974358_thumb.p

post-12275-0-85778500-1418974367_thumb.p

post-12275-0-27315500-1418974381_thumb.p

post-12275-0-09643400-1418974393_thumb.p

Edited by knocker

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Still to far east and north for the UK to benefit.

However history has taught us that these lows are likely to be modeled further south closer to t0. Sometimes this ruins easterlies and we end up with a dry one or sometimes in dumps the south instead of the north in snow.

Shannon is high and fi is very close with so many different variations on those lows

Edited by SN0WM4N

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Stil waiting for the GEFS to complete. This is what we need to start seeing more of...

 

Vicious NNW sets up on the big day

post-5114-0-14146400-1418974523_thumb.pn

 

From that heights starting to lower in central Europe

post-5114-0-11513200-1418974532_thumb.pn

 

Southern Italian low forms after sneaking in under the Azores high

post-5114-0-85676000-1418974542_thumb.pn

 

Only going one way from there, the high ridges back east and we get a lovely little setup

post-5114-0-64880700-1418974551_thumb.pn

post-5114-0-57822500-1418974559_thumb.pn

 

Of course, I haven't just picked a member at random, there are plenty that show a poor festive period cold-wise but I do feel the chart outpus are not really being as 'dynamic' as IMO they ought to be, looking at the background signals. Too many meandering jaywalking 'meh' charts than I would have expected. Nevermind early January, the Xmas-NYD period is far from sorted, anything and everything! is up for grabs

Edited by s4lancia

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If your feeling gloomy about the weather prospects take a peek at the CFS daily and its continued trend for BONKERS Jan/Feb output  :bomb:  :cold:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=360&mode=0&carte=1&run=10  Do not stop after first page for full experience.

Edited by winterof79

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Not saw too many Synoptics like this , greeny high , Scandi trough and Azores high ! Think the models are having a wobble to be honest doesn't really teleconnect too the background drivers well at all. We saw the models do this in 09/10 and dec 10 , they drop it and then pick it back up much closer but it needs to change back this next 2 days really .

Otherwise yet another cold spell took from our noses and we never learn !

Yes and they flipped back at T120hrs so loads to play for!

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We are still heading in the right direction as far as I am concerned this morning, its all falling into place and as always in these situations there are different solutions offered up by the various models but the broad picture remains very positive, If we don't quite get the goodies this time around I don't think we will have to wait long for our luck to change, you only have to look at the whole NH pattern to see that.

 

Keep the faith and enjoy the ride.

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It looks like Fergie and the UKMO might have been right then when they were not very excited about the Xmas period

Still all to play for and I suspect some areas will get a lot of snow, but what I thought was party pooping from Ian seems closer to reality this morning

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The outlook this morning is much clearer to me and my observations are based on all the output.

 

So Xmas day a relatively weak N,ly across the UK. During Boxing day a ridge of HP from the S will bring settled conditions but still cold. The 27th/28th/29th will see the return of milder, unsettled W,lys as the HP sinks S and LP becomes centered towards the NW of the UK. Beyond into the New Year a much colder spell could develop.

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Morning all,

GFS operational looks an outlier and propbably one of the milder (wrong)solutions,

 

 

Not necessarily

Edited by TonyH

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I was about to post that I don't think it's at all clear. I really don't. We have ECM still going for something that would be very cold through Christmas leading to a stonking northerly and GFS showing wind directions 180 degrees the opposite.

 

We are in a pattern change and I suggest nothing at all is clear at the moment, and probably won't be until Monday.

 

100% agree WIB. Not sure how suddenly things are clearer?? The chopping and changing on the charts, as is always the case in these pattern chage periods, has got a while to run yet

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I think I know where we're headed but remains uncertain how we get there!

Remember, this all started around 7/10 days ago when the 2 week ECM ens picked out the scandi trough extending s and sw. Well I said that I thought there would be a snow event between Xmas and new year over a big part of the uk and more than a week later, that's still the case!

Edited by bluearmy

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Perhaps beginning to see the likely pattern but it's has a very complicated period days 6 to 10. another day or so of angst for many and if it pans out how I expect it to then probably more than a couple.

How do you see it going BA ?

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