Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

[Polar Maritime]

Tell me about it. Its like supporting the Palace, a rollacoaster out of control. 7 days out an no one has the foggiest for C day.

 

Nothing out the norm there then, Considering the synoptic set-up   

[joggs]

posting this without having read anything since about 1700 so not sure how this post will fit in with other comments/

 

the comments are my usual into my own daily file. so not in the best of English grammar/spelling!

Noaa

6-10 and the anticipated pattern change in the main  wavelength looks to be getting under way; trough nw pacific/w of Alaska and ridge Alaska along with reasonable sized +ve anomaly, the Canadian trough is now way west of the predicted position 3 days or so ago (then s Greenland, now suggested to be towards gr lakes, ridge now shown as off ssw Greenland and largish +ve anomaly with it thus the flow into the uk is still w’ly over the uk but as trough-ridge and associated +ve with ridge edge east so the flow will turn n of west into the uk, also the flat trough e of the uk is likely to react to thses changes by extending south/sharpening into Europe. Not even looked at the 8-14 but that is what is needed to be seen there if the colder shot is to be more than a short spell?

8-14 is much as 6-10 over most of chart, indeed all of chart, with not that much change in the flow over and e of the uk showing so far but I suspect the flow will turn more n of west and extend more into Europe over the next 2-3 runs. IF the trough edges back west to be west of 10 e then it really would suggest a deep cold spell of at least a week but that is not yet predicted to happen.

Going back to the EC-GFS and only the gfs actually shows this idea in its time frame (6-10). Again if my previous comment is to occur then by 2 days from tomorrow they should both be showing this prediction.

So a colder shot for sure 6 days or so from now, after the colder shot in the run ip to Christmas perhaps or will it merge into one-we have to wait and see?

link to noaa

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Appreciate these updates John,keep em coming.

[Man With Beard]

Massive massive difference between GFS and ECM ens tonight at T216. Which tells me there is some way to go in this saga yet. GFS fairly mild, ECM fairly cold. But the ECM is more consistent at the moment.

[Weathizard]

Massive massive difference between GFS and ECM ens tonight at T216. Which tells me there is some way to go in this saga yet. GFS fairly mild, ECM fairly cold. But the ECM is more consistent at the moment.

Crikey.. That's an astounding difference.

The drama is clearly still not over, although in fairness model watching would be boring without all the ups and downs

[Thunder Snow]

Off topic I know, buts it's nice to see the bbc forecast Are starting to mention, the chance of a cold festive period, with wintery showers over the hills in the north. with the small chance of weather coming in from the south west and bringing snow to lower levels, she did say unlikely but she also said is all to play for better than Darren betts mild rubbish lol

Edited December 18, 2014 by Thunder Snow

[frosty ground]

lol my names Dr Foster !!

Yesterday's time stamp

[inghams85]

Call me mad but for me that ECM 12Z is the best run of the winter so far!

 

Two very important reasons........

 

1) The ECM shows insanely good vertical advection at a decent timeframe

2) A pattern like this 99/100 will steadily be moved east. The timing of the current west best placement of the ridge over Greenland is perfect to set us up on the bullseye by the times the models hit 0hundred hours. Watch this edge east. I suspect sundays12z's to have a few of you excited......im extremely confident on this

[Cloud 10]

lol my names Dr Foster !!

 

Its a shame you weren't from Gloucester.

[SMU]

GFS OP 18z going to be back on track....

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121818/gfsnh-0-114.png?18

 

S

[Mucka]

18z out to 120h and thankfully it is at least looking better than the 12z Op in the early stages.

[Barry12]

GFS 18z is much better at day 5, far better heights moving into Greenland and colder air moving in quicker

 

 

Nothings over till the fat lady sings...

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Call me mad but for me that ECM 12Z is the best run of the winter so far!

 

Two very important reasons........

 

1) The ECM shows insanely good vertical advection at a decent timeframe

2) A pattern like this 99/100 will steadily be moved east. The timing of the current west best placement of the ridge over Greenland is perfect to set us up on the bullseye by the times the models hit 0hundred hours. Watch this edge east. I suspect sundays12z's to have a few of you excited......im extremely confident on this

 

Aye, slowly, three steps forward two steps back, but the outcomes in the longer range do seem to be increasingly supporting what was always the call for most of the winter forecasts i.e. no significant cold until 2015. Compared to where we were two weeks ago, the potential is clearly there for a much colder period post-Xmas. Whether it comes off, or is just the prelude to something more significant a bit further down line only time will tell, but there's no doubting that, at least going on current and recent output, the possibility of of a decent cold shot after Xmas is certainly a reasonable bet right now.

[shaky]

Early stages but gfs normal trends towards ecm but what the hell the parallel trends towards earlier gfs 12z in the early stages!! Wont make the Parallel run look any better stats wise!!

[Captain Shortwave]

Early stages but gfs normal trends towards ecm but what the hell the parallel trends towards earlier gfs 12z in the early stages!! Wont make the Parallel run look any better stats wise!!

Unless that solution is correct of course

I really don't like cut off lows, they cause a lot of hassle. Whilst the ECM ens are nice, I think we will be waiting until the end of the weekend until we can call a cold spell/snap/non event.

GFS op is still not very convincing as high pressure will likely cut out any chance of wintry showers by building in (again triggered by that low). The north and east of Scotland might do ok though.

GFS (P) does not look as good as previous runs.

All conjecture though.

Edited December 18, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[chionomaniac]

Unless that solution is correct of course

I really don't like cut off lows, they cause a lot of hassle. Whilst the ECM ens are nice, I think we will be waiting until the end of the weekend until we can call a cold spell/snap/non event.

GFS op is still not very convincing as high pressure will likely cut out any chance of wintry showers by building in (again triggered by that low). The north and east of Scotland might do ok though.

GFS (P) looks pretty poor.

All conjecture though.

I think that the cut off low here is critical to the pattern and the block holding up. With the ECM ENS forecast wave 2 tropospheric led strat splits from day 10 tonight, this whole pattern could be setting up for something special, with a prolonged cold spell a big possibility if they verify. 

[LomondSnowstorm]

Interesting that the GFS (P) looks very similar to the ECM 12Z but marginally further east. We've seen the initial northerly correcting eastwards in the past few days so perhaps a pattern currently modelled as being slightly too far west is the best thing at this stage...:

 compared to 

[Barry12]

Christmas day sure looks better on the 18z

 

 

Changed from +4 uppers to -4 uppers :smiliz19:

[inghams85]

Aye, slowly, three steps forward two steps back, but the outcomes in the longer range do seem to be increasingly supporting what was always the call for most of the winter forecasts i.e. no significant cold until 2015. Compared to where we were two weeks ago, the potential is clearly there for a much colder period post-Xmas. Whether it comes off, or is just the prelude to something more significant a bit further down line only time will tell, but there's no doubting that, at least going on current and recent output, the possibility of of a decent cold shot after Xmas is certainly a reasonable bet right now.

 

I agree completely, some of the best posters on this thread including Tamara and Chion have since the end of November said the real prolonged cold will be the beginning of January. The Christmas week teases were just a bonus and gave everyone something to ramp over but in all honesty this only was on display due to the models displaying far too much amplification over this period. The background drivers are only now coming together for the period spoken about for 3-4 weeks. The Greenland ridge wont be that far West. Im no meteorologist but from years of model watching you learn to read how an historical pattern will evolve. This pattern historically will be a good 300-500 miles further east putting us in the firing line. I think stage 2 is to see the low heights drop into western Europe and for a North Eastern and then Easterly pattern into January week 2

[Eskimo]

Here comes the Bartlett high!   

[The Eagle]

Tempted to say game set and match but still ample cross model confusion about the Christmas period which gives some, all be it fading, hopes. The profile of the jet stream is awkward but is consistent on the GFS which is why we see no height reductions through Iberia. Nearly game over for this attempt.

Edited December 18, 2014 by The Eagle

[inghams85]

Interesting that the GFS (P) looks very similar to the ECM 12Z but marginally further east. We've seen the initial northerly correcting eastwards in the past few days so perhaps a pattern currently modelled as being slightly too far west is the best thing at this stage...:

 compared to 

Absolutely! I think this is bang on the money. This pattern being modelled this far west at this stage is excellent news knowing how the models evolve

[shaky]

No matter how good the ecm mean is if the both the gfss look like they do this evening at 180 hours then there's real cause for concern!! And if the ecm shows the samw thing then i think we can say goodbye to cold snowy weather till the new year at least! !

[Captain Shortwave]

Here comes the Bartlett high!   

heh, the pub run has forgotten what month it is, it's December, not flaming June 

Edited December 18, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Mucka]

Well let's hope today is the low point for cold output and just a wobble.

Things edging toward the more reliable time-frame now so we need to see some decent op runs through tomorrow really.

[Eugene]

LOL, doesn't look too dissimilar to perturbation1 on GFS 12Z ensembles, cold and frosty xmas/boxing day  :smiliz19: 

Edited December 18, 2014 by Eugene