Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

[Man With Beard]

So we've gone from west based -NAO a couple of days ago, to a full-on northerly yesterday, and now a bit of everything today.

Boxing Day is still a long way out. I doubt any of the models has nailed the pattern just yet. I think things will start to get clearer by Saturday, when the models get down to T144. Will the ECM throw in a new development at that stage, or even at T120, as it often does? And I still remember January 2013, when the UKMO threw in an unexpected slider at just T120, and all the models followed in the next 48 hours.

No surprises to see adjustments at this stage, and I'm sure this will continue for a while. The thing is, the UK is at the edge of any cold pattern so small hemispheric changes alter the snow potential.

Personally, I'm still going for a west based -nao that slowly sinks over us shortly after Boxing Day, giving snow to the north and borderline for the south.

[A.J]

years and years and years and years of technical analysis of the model outputs and it's never changed.....A simple guide to predicting the weather in 10+ days in future.....

 

stage 1) Look at what the model output shows in Deep FI (T192+) 

 

stage 2) Carefully extrapolate the outputs into a forecast based on what the charts are showing

 

stage 3) Take your extrapolations, put them in a nappy sack and shove them in the bin

 

stage 4) Realise with a sense of irony that the actual weather to be experienced will be the exact opposite of what the FI charts are showing

 

stage 5) Relax and have a beer

 

Note of caution:

 

If you cannot follow stages 1 through 5, then see your local GP for a full frontal lobotomy, you're gonna need it  :smiliz39:

[Cloud 10]

Not often you see such a difference between day 10 ensemble means when comparing the ECM 00z and GEFS 12z,with the newer GEFS showing the much maligned western based -NAO.

 

ecm..  gefs..

 

A middle ground solution would do the trick.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

An I the only one thinking that the ECM Synoptics could deliver a great solution further down the line? Short term pain for long term gain?

 

Trouble is it's miles in FI, so nothing guaranteed, on ECM at least Xmas day and boxing day look cold and frosty in the South

[Captain Shortwave]

years and years and years and years of technical analysis of the model outputs and it's never changed.....A simple guide to predicting the weather in 10+ days in future.....

 

stage 1) Look at what the model output shows in Deep FI (T192+) 

 

stage 2) Carefully extrapolate the outputs into a forecast based on what the charts are showing

 

stage 3) Take your extrapolations, put them in a nappy sack and shove them in the bin

 

stage 4) Realise with a sense of irony that the actual weather to be experienced will be the exact opposite of what the FI charts are showing

 

stage 5) Relax and have a beer

 

Note of caution:

 

If you cannot follow stages 1 through 5, then see your local GP for a full frontal lobotomy, you're gonna need it  :smiliz39:

All out of beer and I don't trust the doctors round here  :smiliz19:

The ECM is fine if we give it time, but to be honest if we have the Greeny high then we might as well extract cold from there instead of rain and gales as cold polar air collides with warm air from the Azores to our west. I think most would like snow over the festive period as opposed to a washout.

Still a long way to go though and the output will probably be completely different tomorrow.

[nick sussex]

An I the only one thinking that the ECM Synoptics could deliver a great solution further down the line? Short term pain for long term gain?

In the UK its normally short term pain for long term pain!  If that ECM chart was at T24hrs then possibly however the ECM is having a laugh at our expense by throwing in the last frame tease to placate cold lovers.

 

It's a long slog to cold from the T168hrs chart, for that reason I think we need to see changes at T144hrs onwards rather than chasing " pot of gold at the end of the rainbow" charts at T240hrs.

 

At this point uncertainty is good, the fact that theres not cross model agreement means the picture is still volatile.

[Abyss]

Well all this uncertainty is playing havoc with my sleep routine, waking up to check charts and waiting for the next set etc. I hope by tomorrow we can have "closure" of some sort and cross model agreement is met one way or another.  

[blizzard81]

The JMA is decent for cold on tonight's run. Not eye popping but compared to the other volatile output, I would certainly bank that run.

Edited December 18, 2014 by blizzard81

[snowy weather]

Well all this uncertainty is playing havoc with my sleep routine, waking up to check charts and waiting for the next set etc. I hope by tomorrow we can have "closure" of some sort and cross model agreement is met one way or another.

its playing havoc with my revision. its such a distraction. I have six final year exams at end of January :/

[Bristawl Si]

Anyone that trusts weather model output, generated by a computer, past 5 days should visit a doctor!

[Eugene]

Well all this uncertainty is playing havoc with my sleep routine, waking up to check charts and waiting for the next set etc. I hope by tomorrow we can have "closure" of some sort and cross model agreement is met one way or another.  

 

 

We won't have closure until March 1st. :smiliz19:

[Weathizard]

Hmmm the ensembles have taken a really bad turn in the last 24 hours, the 0z ensembles this morning looked in firm agreement for a good cold snap/spell, now it appears a new trend has been found.

Don't mean to be the bringer of doom just what I've noticed

(Can't post a comparison as I didn't save the 0z ones but the latest ones are far worse than the 18z from yesterday & today's 0z

Edited December 18, 2014 by Weathizard

[Banbury]

Hmmm the ensembles have taken a really bad turn in the last 24 hours, the 0z ensembles this morning looked in firm agreement for a good cold snap/spell, now it appears a new trend has been found.

Don't mean to be the bringer of doom just what I've noticed

(Can't post a comparison as I didn't save the 0z ones but the latest ones are far worse than the 18z from yesterday & today's 0z

From GFS of course ..................luckily there is more than one model to swap stories with

[blizzard81]

Well, unlike many other members in here tonight, I am going to nail my colours to the mast. The GFSP is barking up the wrong tree. I will explain my conclusions shortly. Firstly though, assuming I am correct, you really do have to question these so called upgraded models. The GEM and now the GFS! How are they being upgraded and what so called improved mechanisms are being implemented? Okay, so now on to the reasonings behind my conclusions. Two ECM 12z ops on the bounce showing anticyclonic breakdown leading to west based negative nao. Last night's GFS 18z control agreeing with this solution and now tonight's GFS 18z op and control agreeing. Final nail in the coffin being the meto view which concurs with the above. I, along with most on here, hope I am terribly wrong with my analysis.

Well, I know there is still time for a change but I have to say that since my post last night, there is a fair bit of denial going on in here this evening. The west based neg nao trend is gaining momentum and I feel the gfsp is going to have a massive dollop of egg on it's face within the next day or two lol.

[snowice]

From GFS of course ..................luckily there is more than one model to swap stories with

Tomorrow they will flip again lol!

[Essan]

The JMA is decent for cold on tonight's run. Not eye popping but compared to the other volatile output, I would certainly bank that run.

JMA has long been regarded by the pros as a reliable model.

Which does not, of course, mean it is right!

[snowblizzard]

With such massive swings & shifts in such a short time scale, how can anyone possibly take any notice of what the models & ensembles churn-out!

It's absolute nonsense. Luckily, I've learnt in the past not to expect anything that's showing until it's within T96hrs and the METO are backing it, just like Nov/Dec 2010 

[blizzard81]

JMA has long been regarded by the pros as a reliable model.

Which does not, of course, mean it is right!

Yeah, I only believe that when it shows cold synoptics though lol.

[karlos1983]

It's frustrating viewing indeed, I await to see what the ensembles show, but from my own experiences of these situations, when they show pretty much cross model back track agreement, we don't generally see them flip back again, so as much as I admire some peoples optimism, I just cant see it.

 

The ECM went wrong way before the 216 chart, so how we expect it to get to the Beaut of a chart at 244 is beyond me, it's nice to see and all that, but i wont be taken down that path, or tomorrow morning I'm liable to be in a massively bad mood when it is no longer there!

 

Yes it could change back, but reality and past experiences tell me it wont. That said, with the Strat taking a battering, more opportunities will come, it's going to be a big test of patience that's all.

 

Cheers  :smiliz23: 

[Long haul to mild]

It's the 18th December but you would think it's the end of March judging by some of the posts on here. When I was growing up, I was taught that winter didn't start until 21st December! The fact that I have seen more snowy Easters than Christmases further backs it for me!

Anyone calling a winner from the models for synoptics ten days hence is very brave and liable to portions of a certain pie somewhere down the line!

Edited December 18, 2014 by Long haul to mild

[bluearmy]

the ecm 00z suite had approx 15% chance that the 00z and 12z op are in the right ballpark with T2 maxes for london in excess of 6c day 10.  the big question will be whether the 12z ecm suite begins to drift that percentage upwards.

 

fwiw, the pattern on the ecm op by day 10 looks great - just in the wrong place for us!  more changes to come on the modelling. the atlantic trough continuing to wreak havoc with the evolution as was the comment this time yesterday evening. plus ca change!

Edited December 18, 2014 by bluearmy

[ANYWEATHER]

Cutting a long story short, both ecm and gfs show some wintry potential , but not the dream charts of the last 48 hours.! :smiliz57:  Nothing new from the models then, Tease and Torment  There is going to be a lot of changes before Christmas that's for sure  but it does look like cold will be a feature for most during the festive period.... :smiliz34:

[bluearmy]

ecm op looks like a sypnotic 'outlier' again - not checked the spreads as yet

Edited December 18, 2014 by bluearmy

[draztik]

Stunning ecm ensemble mean! All to play for, and as BA says the op appears to be an outlier.

[karlos1983]

Well well well, encouraging 

 

 

Edited December 18, 2014 by karlos1983