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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas


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Why use the old GFS when the GFS P is the upgraded version soon to become live?

 

You've answered your own question :p it's not fully officially operational yet and it's performance as of yet is questionable, compared to years of GFS OP verification stats. It may have a higher resolution, but in my book that doesn't mean it's better, there's been many models run at higher resolutions than the GFS, yet we follow the GFS, ECM & UKMO year in year out, there's good reasoning for it!

Edited by Backtrack
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Unfortunately, there needs to be a recognition that if we share at *this tentative juncture* the exact nature of what we have as Ops Centre guidance, certain individuals will inevitably extrapolate/wa

If the UK can't get cold from an upstream pattern with a negatively tilted troughing setting up over the ne USA , indeed the best set up since two winters ago then I will seriously consider throwing m

The good news just keeps on coming!   Upstream pattern is falling into place to deliver what many people in this thread want to see, NCEP give us the best update since winter 2012/2013,  indeed I'm

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Going to be an interesting few hours methinks - nothing ever straightforward in the world of model watching!

It's complicated isn't it. Shortwaves and bits of energy everywhere. Other than '09 and '10 I can't remember a clean evolution to cold!

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One step forward, two steps back. 

Twas ever thus chasing wavering cold signals.

 

If things go as they usually do then two lackluster GFS efforts will be followed by ECM producing a deep freeze.

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Downgrade at present for Christmas day cold, but this could easily revert back to cold on the next runs. As we all know, fickle is an understatement for charts!!

 

We await with Intrepid interest for the next two days or so when the situation can begin to firm up a little more!

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Those of you preying to your model God to remove any chance of a west based -NAO are rewarded with the pattern too Far East !!!

The anomoly looks akin to yesterday's exm 00z mean in week 2. Just more evidence that the envelope remains very broad.

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Would be nice if some stepped back and thought a little before posting. Let's keep discussion friendly please ☺

Thanks PM

Precisely PM.The running commentary is comical.162 is a ball breaker and looking fine at the same time.?Chill pills in cabinet.

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It's complicated isn't it. Shortwaves and bits of energy everywhere. Other than '09 and '10 I can't remember a clean evolution to cold!

 

Yes all the very amplified GFS runs relied on two pulses of WAA firing up the Atlantic ridge to Greenland. The GFS op on the 12z doesn't succeed with either and the P now only really gets one cycle. We see from what follows neither will sustain a block and at the best, with one wave of WAA we get a toppler (P).

 

We then have to wait for another ridge at the end of December before we can have another shot: post-14819-0-16091200-1418920878_thumb.p

 

The P becomes flat again by d9 UK wise: post-14819-0-21476700-1418920943_thumb.p

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Quite frankly the 2 12z gfs runs are horrid and shows just how wrong it can go. Can the situation be saved though or has the rot set in for the Post Christmas day period? Another day or two to be sure. Expect nothing and you won't be too gutted if nothing is what you get!

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Why use the old GFS when the GFS P is the upgraded version soon to become live?

Because the parallel is not the soon to be come live operational. It's the parallel of an unfinished model. Don't be fooled into thinking your viewing the new, finished, operational gfs.

Edited by garbagebags
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Classic GFS - the op gets the upstream pattern right and messes up the Atlantic while the para decides to get the initial northerly in fine then manages to mess up the upstream :laugh: :

gfsnh-0-168.png?12 gfsnh-0-168.png

GEM looks closer to getting its act together (although of course the upper air temperature modelling for it is a mess too):

gemnh-0-180.png?12

The other problem we have really is the refusal of heights to clear from the south. If we could just get that first trough to dig in a bit further south it would definitely help matters.

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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The GFS makes the most of the shortwave to the sw and delivers zero in terms of cold interest. The GFS P better but then goes downhill.

 

The problem upstream is this flattens quickly which allows that troughing to phase with the slow moving low off the eastern USA, this then pulls energy eastwards and the sum total is the GFS P which although miles better than that horror show delivered by the normal GFS is still very disappointing.

 

Overall the GFS outputs so far are akin to being told you've won a prize and then go onto find out its a week at the local Butlins compared to 2 weeks on Hawaii!

 

The UKMO is okay at T144hrs although could be better, lets hope the ECM can turn up with its Santa hat on!

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That's the Parallel Run..... apples and Pears

They always seem to be so different, wonder if the new one is actually more accurate :)

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I urge people not to start making assumptions about the GFS, it has ( as usual ) gone from being consistent to throwing all the toys out the pram.

 

Now we have UKMO / GEM / ECM in range we don't have to rely on the GFS- it should be said though ALL models have moved towards the ECM solution presented yesterday- ( that's bigger picture ) the shortwave will ultimately decide the pattern....

 

S

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You've answered your own question :p it's not fully officially operational yet and it's performance as of yet is questionable, compared to years of GFS OP verification stats. It may have a higher resolution, but in my book that doesn't mean it's better, there's been many models run at higher resolutions than the GFS, yet we follow the GFS, ECM & UKMO year in year out, there's good reasoning for it!

 

The statistics suggest your post is perhaps not correct?

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Viewing the output this evening, one gets the impression this has come too early in terms of stratospheric state. It's just not conducive enough for HLB establishment yet. It's extremely frustrating watching the stubbornness of the vortex this year given on the face of it it has little working for it!

It's always just one more blow away from being taken out but then inexplicably stumbles back to its feet.

Edited by CreweCold
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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121812/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

 

Use it if you want but you still wont get a snowfest , we are clearly in a complicated pattern that changes by the day .....................link FI of course

I am not using it to get a snowfest. I am using it because it is the GFS upgraded version. Whether it turns out to be on the money or not it certainly has been the most consistent of the models in the past few days that is for sure.

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I urge people not to start making assumptions about the GFS, it has ( as usual ) gone from being consistent to throwing all the toys out the pram.

 

Now we have UKMO / GEM / ECM in range we don't have to rely on the GFS- it should be said though ALL models have moved towards the ECM solution presented yesterday- ( that's bigger picture ) the shortwave will ultimately decide the pattern....

 

S

 

not strictly true Steve, the upper air pattern wil ldecide what happens to the low level system?

but best I go and look what all this is about, if I can discover what time frame is causing so much interest?

Edited by johnholmes
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The statistics suggest your post is perhaps not correct?

 

But John, years of GFS at standard resolution, vs what, a month of GFS Parallel? Quantifiable evidence to currently use the GFS OP over the parallel, despite the higher resolution, surely?

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I am not using it to get a snowfest. I am using it because it is the GFS upgraded version. Whether it turns out to be on the money or not it certainly has been the most consistent of the models in the past few days that is for sure.

Are you sure , I saw something from Brian on TWO saying the current GFS was verifying much better up to x hours

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