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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Rhoose, South Wales

How have the METO seen the 12Z Russell?

The BBC have a TARDIS at their disposal !

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Posted
  • Location: North of Glasgow 105 msl
  • Location: North of Glasgow 105 msl

Have to say I was baffled by Russell's comments also

sorry... I thought if it was issued at 12.00 they might have access to it/them before the wider population?

apologies if I'm barking up the wrong tree ...or just barking!

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh

How have the METO seen the 12Z Russell?

 

i think he means the METO have "already" seen the pattern waxing hence their update today...

 

*edit*

 

...or not then!!!!!

Edited by New Forest Gump
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

sorry... I thought if it was issued at 12.00 they might have access to it/them before the wider population?

apologies if I'm barking up the wrong tree ...or just barking!

 

the runs are initialised at noon russell. i doubt they are available much before we see them. . if i was paying hundreds of thousands of pounds for the ecm data, i would expect to see it as soon as anyone.

 

oh lord, i sense another chinese whispers event coming on !!!

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: North of Glasgow 105 msl
  • Location: North of Glasgow 105 msl

the runs are initialised at noon russell. i doubt they are available much before we see them. . if i was paying hundreds of thousands of pounds for the ecm data, i would expect to see it as soon as anyone.

 

oh lord, i sense another chinese whispers event coming on !!!

so bluearmy are the Met Office all gathered round a table at 3.30pm awaiting the download of the GFS and their own model (12zs) and then after tea and biscuits the 12z ECM downloads from 6pm onwards... ? 

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

Last night there was a -10 showing up in the ENS for 2M temps in central England.

 

Now there is a -13.

 

gefstmp2mmaxbirmingham.png?cb=924

 

I wonder if we can go lower than that on the next set?

 

Updated AO forecast 18thDec:

 

ao.sprd2.gif

 

Equally there are a couple +13 ensembles. Sorry lol

 

Quite a nice downward trend though which is what matters for this range, amongst the uncertainty.

 

Oddly there seem to be 2 operational, control and mean lines (and perhaps 2 of each ensemble?) on that chart 

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

The ECM ensembles suggest we are moving more toward a plain vanilla toppler.

 

EDM1-240.GIF?18-12

 

Are we in a better or worse position than yesterday? I would say, on balance, we have gone backward a little bit.

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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

Equally there are a couple +13 ensembles. Sorry lol

 

Quite a nice downward trend though which is what matters for this range, amongst the uncertainty.

 

Oddly there seem to be 2 operational, control and mean lines (and perhaps 2 of each ensemble?) on that chart

One op line will be for the old GFS and the other for the GFS P most probably.

The GFS ensembles are presented more clearly on Meteociel IMO.

Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Regarding the ECM, our company pays for the data and we start seeing it roll in at 05:40/17:40, so I highly doubt anyone else gets to see them earlier.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Last night there was a -10 showing up in the ENS for 2M temps in central England.

 

Now there is a -13.

 

gefstmp2mmaxbirmingham.png?cb=924

 

I wonder if we can go lower than that on the next set?

 

Updated AO forecast 18thDec:

 

ao.sprd2.gif

To add to this, the CFS extended NAO forecasts agrees with a notable drop next week but it goes back to positive ground in time for January.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/naoindex.png

Edited by karyo
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Posted
  • Location: North of Glasgow 105 msl
  • Location: North of Glasgow 105 msl

Regarding the ECM, our company pays for the data and we start seeing it roll in at 05:40/17:40, so I highly doubt anyone else gets to see them earlier.

and the GFS and your own model?

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

and the GFS and your own model?

 

The GFS the same time as everyone else, and the company I work for (MetDesk) doesn't have its own model...not in the conventional sense anyway.

Edited by Nick L
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The ECM ensembles suggest we are moving more toward a plain vanilla toppler.

 

EDM1-240.GIF?18-12

 

Are we in a better or worse position than yesterday? I would say, on balance, we have gone backward a little bit.

For those searching for snow filled nirvana by new year, the ecm 00 suite is definitely a little too Far East with the block and flat upstream. As the gfsp 06. However, that would still be v cold and for the time being , it isn't yet a trend . Of course, even this less amplified suite promises some snowfall before year end so no need for coldies to be downbeat.

And remember the 06 gefs anomolys were an upgrade on the 00z set so again, no trend evident in either direction.

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Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

To add to this, the CFS extended NAO forecasts agrees with a notable drop next week but it goes back to positive ground in time for January.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/naoindex.png

 

I wouldn't worry too much about the extended CFS NAO forecasts Karyo. I'm pretty sure a while ago it didn't spot this upcoming drop we're about to have, so i would have little faith in what it's showing past 2 - 3 weeks.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

I wouldn't worry too much about the extended CFS NAO forecasts Karyo. I'm pretty sure a while ago it didn't spot this upcoming drop we're about to have, so i would have little faith in what it's showing past 2 - 3 weeks.

They will change rapidly due to any effects from happenings in the stratosphere anyway. We're heading into a real dynamic period NWP wise I think.

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

I wouldn't worry too much about the extended CFS NAO forecasts Karyo. I'm pretty sure a while ago it didn't spot this upcoming drop we're about to have, so i would have little faith in what it's showing past 2 - 3 weeks.

Yep you're right I saved one from just 6 days ago the only real drop was later in winter towards March- so it goes to show these can't be very accurate even at shorter range

post-10303-0-38981600-1418915960_thumb.p

Edited by Kentspur
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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

Yep you're right I saved one from just a few days ago the only real drop was later in winter towards March- so it goes to show these to can't be very accurate even at shorter range

I was under the impression that the NAO, B & Q, DFS etc follow the op's anyway, so in effect they are only as goods as the ops make them? Which would figure as it is only the last few days (after the NAO chart you show) that the actual op runs have started to show a -NAO

Edited by No Balls Like Snow Balls
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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset, UK
  • Location: North Somerset, UK

so bluearmy are the Met Office all gathered round a table at 3.30pm awaiting the download of the GFS and their own model (12zs) and then after tea and biscuits the 12z ECM downloads from 6pm onwards... ? 

Ha! Er, no. Obviously the UKMO-GM is seen fairly rapidly (much quicker than it goes to public websites etc). Anyway, 12z's awaited with usual interest, albeit there's really no particular alarm bells being expressed here re next week's developments. Just a watching brief, but anything noteworthy continues to look a low PROB solution, as others here have rightly stressed.

Edited by fergieweather
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Posted
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow/Blizzards in Winter, Cool Summers. (I'm allergic to heat)!
  • Location: Currently Southminster, Essex (but original home town Northampton)

They will change rapidly due to any effects from happenings in the stratosphere anyway. We're heading into a real dynamic period NWP wise I think.

 

Agreed CC.

 

A fascinating period of model watching coming up i feel over the next few days/weeks. Fully anticipating it to be miles better than the crud we constantly had to put up with last 'Winter'... (from a cold perspective, of course)

Edited by SE Blizzards
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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

There will be big changes over the next 7 days, so if your a mild aficionado I'd suggest making the most of the mild weather over the next few days. Things gradually turning colder as we go through the Christmas period. There will be snow for many in my opinion, including to lower levels in the south.

 

Friday

 

33-582UK.GIF?18-633-7UK.GIF?18-639-779UK.GIF?18-6

 

By Friday Afternoon, the mild air will have moved out of the UK, it will be cold in Scotland and Northern Ireland with snow returning to higher ground over Scotland.

 

Saturday

 

57-582UK.GIF?18-654-7UK.GIF?18-657-779UK.GIF?18-6

 

On Saturday temperatures will be around average for the south and below for the North. It looks like being a relatively dry day.

 

Sunday

 

81-582UK.GIF?18-681-7UK.GIF?18-684-779UK.GIF?18-6

 

Sunday will be mild for the south and around average for Scotland, it will be wet to the NW.

 

Monday

 

102-582UK.GIF?18-6108-7UK.GIF?18-6108-779UK.GIF?18-6

 

On Monday it will remain mild for England and Wales, but it will be rather cold in Scotland.

 

Tuesday

 

132-582UK.GIF?18-6132-7UK.GIF?18-6126-779UK.GIF?18-6

 

On Tuesday it will be mild for most, with parts of Scotland below average. There will every wet and windy weather.

 

Christmas Eve

 

150-582UK.GIF?18-6156-7UK.GIF?18-6156-779UK.GIF?18-6

 

On Christmas eve evening is when the cold air starts moving in, the south will manage another mild day but it will start to get cold for all as we move into the early hours of Christmas day. It will be a white Christmas eve for parts of higher ground over NW Scotland.

 

Christmas Day

 

174-582UK.GIF?18-6180-7UK.GIF?18-6180-779UK.GIF?18-6

 

On Christmas day it will be around average for the South, but below average for the North. It will be a white Christmas for parts of Scotland and NW England.

 

Boxing Day

 

192-582UK.GIF?18-6192-7UK.GIF?18-6192-779UK.GIF?18-6

 

Boxing day morning will be cold with temperatures just above freezing, more snow for parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland and NW England.

 

So...

 

It will be mostly average to above average over the next 6 days, before a cold front moves in on Christmas Eve bringing snow to Scotland, and lowering temperatures for all. Christmas at the moment looks seasonal but nothing severe, with snow for Scotland and NW England. Although, given it's 7 days away there's still time for change. The next 5 days are pretty much nailed on, so if you like the mild weather make the most of it. The Christmas period into the New year will be below average with snow. Very positive outlook from the Met Office supporting the operational models we are currently seeing. The 12's are rolling out, so hopefully some upgrades for Christmas day.

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Posted
  • Location: North of Glasgow 105 msl
  • Location: North of Glasgow 105 msl

Ha! Er, no. Obviously the UKMO-GM is seen fairly rapidly (much quicker than it goes to public websites etc). Anyway, 12z's awaited with usual interest, albeit there's really no particular alarm bells being expressed here re next week's developments. Just a watching brief, but anything noteworthy continues to look a low PROB solution, as others here righly have stressed.

Thanks Ian, so what time lag is there between your access to the NWP and the General public? 

Apologies for the tea and biscuits!

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Posted
  • Location: Chilwell, Nottingham, UK
  • Location: Chilwell, Nottingham, UK

<the type of alluring GFS output we are currently seeing in FI may become more and more plausible sooner rather than later

.

<all bets are off as stated in the extended period.

<we could do with treading water in GWO phase spacing 1/2 right into the first week or so of the New Year so that the indicated amplification potential is maximised whilst negative frictional torque longevity sustains the strength of the Azores High. ..

<could it be that the amplification signal being picked up in the last week of this month leads us to simultaneous timing of vortex demise and flip in the NAO from the persistently + signal we have been seeing... early in January?

<There are dominoes to fall that need a little luck (for coldest outcomes) to get to that Havana - but the retrogressed Pacific pattern and quieter Atlantic profile represents very promising progress at mid month on the basis that further vortex assassination has re-commenced in good time after that annoying blip. Hopefully the troposphere/stratosphere relationship (allied with the atmosphere calling in a favour for us) will do the rest....

Edited by Tamara תָּ 16 December 2014 - 19:05

 

'Havana' as in big fat cigar, Tamara, or as in 'Nirvana'... paradise?!!

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