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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

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Can't remember ever seeing a chart like the 216 hrs from tonight's ECM.

 

attachicon.gifECH1-216.GIF

 

I challenge someone to find one like it from the archives. :smiliz23:

Yes very bizarre looking together with the T192hrs. I'm minded to call it synoptic garbage, I've see many western negative NAO set ups but nothing like the drivel dished out by tonights ECM.

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ECM has chained itself to the gates of frigidness and is protesting loudly.

 

Time for the GFS and UKMO to get the bolt croppers out and remove him !

Tbh the ukmo is almost identical to the ecm up to its 144 hour limit.That said the ecm beyond that does at best look dubious!!!

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Check Mat Hugo's latest tweet - 'ECM mild Outlier'.

'Very Interesting later in period'

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Why anyone is getting hang up on ECM post 144 is beyond me , the ECM that gave us " that ECM " within 92 hrs should be taken at face value , clearly models are struggling post 144 so expect good / bad cold solutions ,the fact that we've had two M class flare within a week and that impacts HLB in NH we should wait at least another 48 hr before we know what next week brings

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I couldn't analyse anything about what happens after +192 because it's just really weird... 216 is something I've not seen before at all!

Mind you, at d10 we have -8c uppers touching E Scotland with shortwaves and heavy snow across Scotland and N England- but regardless, it'd be best (for the UK) to summarise the EC as this:

-cool and windy today and tomorrow, some wintry shrs on high ground (mostly above 500m)

-turning milder by Monday, up until around the 23rd; with cloudy and warmer conditions likely to prevail

-turning colder by Wednesday, especially in Scotland and the northern areas, with wintry shrs from first the NW, turning to the N by Christmas Day itself, perhaps some snow shrs moving to lower levels at times, but mostly dry and sunny

-by Boxing Day, it turns milder again from the W; and on the 27th a transient blowtorch SWly comes into play with high pressure nearby

 

for the love of sanity I couldn't go further as NE England goes from +5c 850s at 216 to -7c 850s at 240; but I think it's definitely all to play for, and it's fair to say the ECM op will again be a milder outlier between D7 and D9... for me the points of interest are too varied to pinpoint an exact problem- shortwaves, Euro heights, Icelandic lows, Greenlandic heights etc... but I'm very wary of the 12z ECM, and that's not just because it doesn't set in the deeper potent cold that other models suggest... but the evolution after Christmas is just weird

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Think the ECM belongs in the bin, it is so out of sync with the GFS/GFS(P)/UKMO

But is it not possible that it may have calculated something that the other models haven't yet? Yet again more runs needed...

Never mind...just read that it was a mild outlier above...

Edited by Chris K
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I like a bit of drama, since when did the UK ever have smooth sailing to a very cold outlook? This is going to make the final victory all the sweeter and I still have every confidence we are going to see a major pattern change later next week.

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Yes very bizarre looking together with the T192hrs. I'm minded to call it synoptic garbage, I've see many western negative NAO set ups but nothing like the drivel dished out by tonights ECM.

I don't know what's happened to the ECM over the past year or so. It used to be so dependable but it seems to be leading merry dances recently. Obviously this doesn't mean tonight's offering is wrong, however...

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I don't know what's happened to the ECM over the past year or so. It used to be so dependable but it seems to be leading merry dances recently. Obviously this doesn't mean tonight's offering is wrong, however...

Maybe when it had its upgrade the technician was secretly a GFS employee and they  simply uploaded the  GFS's program. :D  

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I don't know what's happened to the ECM over the past year or so. It used to be so dependable but it seems to be leading merry dances recently. Obviously this doesn't mean tonight's offering is wrong, however...

Yes its fallen from grace,regardless of its top billing upto T144hrs it's fallen off a cliff after that. I can accept a western based negative NAO but its outputs especially at T192 and T216hrs are on very shaky ground.

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Think the ECM belongs in the bin, it is so out of sync with the GFS/GFS(P)/UKMO

Unfortunately the cold arctic air has the choice to dig south into the Atlantic and hence build heights again over Europe and it can't be discounted. Plus it's more fun to have a chance of blizzards at day 8 as well as possible record breaking mild conditions :p

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Maybe mr bean has been tampering with the ecm tonight..anyway we've all been here before so we should be used to it by now.. start with a clean slate when the ecm ensemble mean feeds through and then round off the night with a stellar 18z.

Edited by Frosty.
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One thing that's striking to me across the output is that actually there is next to no signal for height rises to our North / northeast. Very odd really given what we are seeing. Also where ensembles are building a Greenland high many of them (not all though) are disposing of the heights and reverting to zonal very quickly.

I keep expecting to see big booming easterlies deep in FI but nothing's really showing. Personally, I actually think the end game may still be the big easterly in the first week of January.

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What if, say, the GFS(P), UKMO & JMA all showed mild conditions but the ECM showed cold. Would those who are discounting the ECM at the moment, side with the mild solution? I'm not so sure. Don't discount that ECM run just yet.

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The ECM is doing my head in!

 

You either want the shortwave ejection early or not at all. And it all unravels and leaves a mild sw'erly! Desperate stuff from the ECM, everything that can go wrong does!

 

I thought the 00hrs was a pain this is truly gruesome stuff, so tonight I'm afraid still no resolution and its either cold and snow or barbecues!

 

ECM don't bother with any last frame teases! we don't want to know!

The problem is that the ECM was the first model to introduce the shortwave drama and then the other models followed so the extremely west based -NAO solution could be a new trend.

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Yes its fallen from grace,regardless of its top billing upto T144hrs it's fallen off a cliff after that. I can accept a western based negative NAO but its outputs especially at T192 and T216hrs are on very shaky ground.

I was following the ECM through late summer and into the early/mid stages of Autumn and have to say past day 7 and it was pretty poor...so maybe some hope.

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ECM op has been warmer than the mean for 3 or 4 runs. IMO, when this has happened before, it normally only goes on so long, before - if the op has been consistent - the mean follows. So its a little spanner in the works for me tonight.

I still think if you take all model output into consideration from the past week, the most likely outcome remains a short period of westerlies before the -nao moves eastward introducing cold before new year.

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I was following the ECM through late summer and into the early/mid stages of Autumn and have to say past day 7 and it was pretty poor...so maybe some hope.

But the issues are apparent from day 6 and ECM is top of the board for 144 verification, it has also been rather persistent the past couple of days in offering a different view of the situation.. ECM is known to flip flop day 8 onwards but is one mighty steady eddy under 168'

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It looks like those solutions last night that the GFS was coming out with - just a total mess in the Atlantic which contrives to ruin a good upstream pattern. Usually the less convoluted solution tends to win out, which would be any of the other model runs other than the ECM, but it's not impossible to see total messes which look synoptically unlikely verify:

archives-2012-12-12-0-0.png

However, I certainly think that some kind of northerly-type looks the form horse for the 27th onwards based on the current output. As much as there have been instances where one model has scuppered potential cold spells there's been very little consistency from either the ECM or the GFS other than a tendency to throw out a number of mild outlier solutions at points, so I think the general consensus is probably closest to the mark.

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Can't remember ever seeing a chart like the 216 hrs from tonight's ECM.

attachicon.gifECH1-216.GIF

I challenge someone to find one like it from the archives. :smiliz23:

Lol westerly from the Carribean to Russia, good effort

Edited by karlos1983
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One thing that's striking to me across the output is that actually there is next to no signal for height rises to our North / northeast. Very odd really given what we are seeing. Also where ensembles are building a Greenland high many of them (not all though) are disposing of the heights and reverting to zonal very quickly.

I keep expecting to see big booming easterlies deep in FI but nothing's really showing. Personally, I actually think the end game may still be the big easterly in the first week of January.

 

The ensembles (particularly GFS) are keen to move the PV back west in deep FI but as noted earlier this goes against the background signal that conditions will be conducive for height rises in the Greenland area end of Dec/early Jan.

All along way out and for now we need to look to get the Atlantic blocking secured and cold uppers in in the earlier time-frame. If and when that happens I think we will start to see some extremely interesting winter solutions develop within the ensembles for FI.

Let's get the cold in for latter part of Dec first though before worrying about any possible upgrades/downgrades of severity and longevity too much.

Edited by Mucka

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Apologies if this sounds like an inane ramble but the chart output, in general, at the moment just doesn't 'look 'right'. Woefully unscientific, the sort of comment I hate seeing but there it is. Can't put my finger on it

In other periods of similar pattern change periods there are almost always weird, wonderful, inconsistent and wildly varied charts in the lead up to whatever the eventual pattern change ended up as but some of these charts aren't making any sense (neither am I in all likelihood I realise) but if it tuned out there were major missing elements in the data periodically it would explain it at least. Not for one second do I think that that is actually the case (considering it would be cross-model as well), just saying it would explain some of the subtly strange output we have seen of late.

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I think nothing has really changed and people are again making the mistake of micro-analysing each run.

I think the potential for very dramatic weather is there for next weekend. Okay nothing may happen, but remember what learned posters have said here; don't get too excited or downhearted until the new working week. :)

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