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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

Days 8-10 will inevitably change tomorrow, so I think we should wait until this mornings runs to see where we are. If the model output is poor tomorrow then maybe we can throw in the towel for anything very cold before New Year. Still, the ECM is showing a cold Christmas and Boxing day, and snow is possible to lower levels in the North.

Edited by Barry95
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

West based negative NAO from the ECM, to complete the underwhelming outputs. Regardless of whether the ECM throws out some more appealing T240hrs chart the damage is already done.

 

Still enough time for changes thankfully as tonights outputs are giving me indigestion.

The ECM has been going for this west based -NAO for several runs now so that's very concerning and given that the other models are not as good as they were earlier (in particularly the GFS) then I think the cold spell is in danger of not happening.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

A nice chart to end the ECM, A few more frames and we would see a fantastic cross Polar Northerly. The theme remains as far as i'm concerned, Many more runs and skitty output to come :)  

 

ECH1-240.GIF

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

As we come to the end of the ECM run we can see there is a 2 wave attack on the vortex so all is not lost.

It is just that flatter Canadian trough doesn't do us any favours in the shorter term.We can see the WAA is too far west and leaves the UK facing a brief north westerly for Christmas before pressure rises from the Euro block and we return to a milder Atlantic flow.

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire

Possible Gales for the south east.

 

Maybe this is what Ian F mentioned earlier today re concern after boxing day, and nothing to do with snow!

 

ECM1-240.GIF?18-0

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

West based negative NAO from the ECM, to complete the underwhelming outputs. Regardless of whether the ECM throws out some more appealing T240hrs chart the damage is already done.

 

Still enough time for changes thankfully as tonights outputs are giving me indigestion.

The main comfort for me is that they all go wrong for different reasons - the ECM is probably the most encouraging because, other than being a bit too far west, it's almost perfect, so not huge corrections needed to get something from it. The GFS (P) needs to sort out the shortwaves upstream and slow the low exiting the US and the GFS op is just a mess. Anyway, doesn't look quite as far west as some of the worst west-based NAOs, almost back to cold by the end of the run:

ECH1-240.GIF?18-0

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

ECM sticking to it's earlier run, unfortunately a west based NAO now looks likely. What would the low north of UK do following 240hrs though? Icould it slip SE allowing the flood gates to open?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Nick Sussex tirade alert......Nick Sussex tirade alert....... :w00t:

 

attachicon.gifECH1-216.gif

Don't goad me! lol I will hold back until tomorrow morning! Overall its a lesson in frustration tonight coldiewise, but we have just enough time to see more changes. The ECM at least held back the horror till later in the output, the GFS had already sunk without trace by T144hrs!

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

Very festive**

 

**if you're on a boat in the N Atlantic

 

ECH1-216.GIF?18-0

I wouldn't worrie it's 3 runs in a row it's changed at 192hrs.If it were 144 then I'd chuck the towel in.GFS is drunk so I think we should not write it of yet!
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Posted
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, the very hot and the very cold.
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL

On radio glos, fergie was talking about a change to colder weather over Christmas. Wintry up north.

Those Koreans are at it again, cyber attacking Netweather and Sony.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Don't goad me! lol I will hold back until tomorrow morning! Overall its a lesson in frustration tonight coldiewise, but we have just enough time to see more changes. The ECM at least held back the horror till later in the output, the GFS had already sunk without trace by T144hrs!

 

Its not all bad news Nick,at least the santa smiley's are back,so take a deep breath,have a brandy,and wait

for the ecm ensembles. :smiliz19:

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Well we normaly expect things to move further East as we approach T+0, so still all to play for.

Well indeed. Just FYI (and this is pretty close to straw clutching), this was an ECM run before the December 2010 cold spell at a similar range to the prospective cold spell now:

ECH1-240.GIF?00

and that was one of the smoothest rundowns to cold I can remember! So definitely still time for corrections seeing as how there's still no real consensus on the pattern (and to be fair we're still looking at output that's relatively far out).

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

It's looking like a cool/cold shot over the Christmas period, Before a stronger push of Height's and stratt influences possibly (And much more likely) will deliver much better and deeper cold for the UK. As ever in these set-up's we have some very interesting and uncertain times ahead, Fantastic Model watching.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Fantastic wintry potential from ECM 12z final frame just as was the case last night. In the meantime, turning colder tomorrow into the weekend but then milder, wet and windy weather spreading from the west during Sunday and Monday..then a much more potent surge of cold air just in time for Christmas..good fortune for a change!

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Looks like it's GFS shortwave nightmare vs ECM perfect Greenland High again. Unfortunately for us GFS has almost always been right for these scenarios in the last few years.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

I have three positive thoughts at this point.

 

1. The GEM takes the western Atlantic low towards Newfoundland and it does not send any impulse through the blocking high, if its normal progressive bias is added, then you have a solid northerly by 26th.

 

2. There is often an oscillation in model output 5-7 days before a cold spell, we've seen them before, and this one is nicely timed because you want to be cold 8 days out, mild 6-7 days out, then cold 4-5 days out for a successful ride in these cases.

 

3. Lunar tidal momentum not programmed into models is all southward pull from 20th to 27th. That could be our ace in the hole. My research suggests it is a 10% variability sort of a factor, but given the knife edge situation we seem to be facing, take that 10% as a bit of insurance. I suspect we are looking at a scenario where positive change will creep back into the picture tonight and then gain momentum tomorrow and Saturday.

 

Would also say that the general run of model evolution suggests that major winter synoptics are more a question of when than if, and climatology suggests that 27-29 Dec or 3-5 Jan are good times for pattern change relative to other periods.

I can concur with point 2, I don't know enough about point 3 and with regards to point 1 well, how shall I put this? After it's recent upgrade, the GEM is performing as badly as ever lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

An I the only one thinking that the ECM Synoptics could deliver a great solution further down the line? Short term pain for long term gain?

 

Nope as i alluded a few post's back, To me it's looking like a stronger push of cold after the Christmas cool/cold shot.

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