Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

[IDO]

Countryfile Week Ahead sums it up, very uncertain with either or solutions for the low next weekend; a track E/NE or SE!

So even the pros are not calling it. Tomorrow will hopefully bring a clearer picture, but it should be no surprise, the storm we had earlier this winter was not resolved till a few days before, just the way it is.

[blizzard81]

I've never known the 'well respected' jma to ever 'rescue' any situation. If it's at odds with the other output, that's because it's wrong. Bit like when posters start putting up ensemble members to illustrate a cold solution. It means coldies are in trouble!

I will add that I find most of today's modelling very unconvincing but then we can't really start to imagine what the NWP could or should be showing. Where would that end? We can only comment on what it is showing.

I hope your comment with regards to JMA is akin to your ECM 4 op runs on the trot moment a couple of years ago lol :smiliz64:

[Su Campu]

Move along now, nothing to see here. Come back in January.

I still fail to see where the evidence for optimism sprung from. Maybe people are beginning to subconsciously become brainwashed by the likes of Jimmy Maddman's ramblings, because of course he says doesn't use the models! ;-)

ECM is king and has stuck to its guns. If I were a betting man I would go for a Rosenbloom northerly shift in the 27th's storm track. Too far north and too much modification for a proper snow event, apart from the north.

[mushymanrob]

It suggests the opposite of high pressure being more dominant.

Between your and West is best's posts I fear my head may explode.

I said more dominant then previously predicted, like the gfs they are edging away from low/jet dominated. Now of course it can alter, or it might be the start of a trend towards high pressure domination.

[Hocus Pocus]

Can we cut out the arguments guys everyone is entitled to their opinion on what the models suggest and thats why we are all here after all.

[Jason M]

Would be great (albeit very very unlikely) if JMA were correct on the linked chart. Big difference here is the jet looks like going south. If that rolled on id expect a very different outcome to what we're seeing everywhere else tonight.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php

[Biggin]

Agreed Joe. A short wintry storm followed by a continued mixed zonality.

All eyes than remain on the strat for a colder spell after mid January.

Ditched......... no chance of a chart to back that up ??

[Daniel*]

In fairness I think most folk are just pointing out inaccurate reading of the charts. It's not meant to be personal.

There are nearly 600 people reading this thread and when someone makes inaccurate or misleading comments it's only fair and right that they are pulled up. I think the more experienced chart readers have actually shown great restraint to be honest as there has been some crazy and completely unjustified ramping in recent days (and that's a general observation and not targeting anyone in particular).

It was only yesterday that I got pulled up for saying there was nothing massively snowy in the outlook by someone quoting four charts showing 'blizzards'. The slight issue was they were not showing blizzards and were actually showing 2 days of heavy rain!

No dig at you but to be frank you're being misleading! for the past few days GFS has been displaying 850s sufficient for snow across wide stretches of the UK, as the low pulls away colder air digs in whatever falls will likely be snow, albeit transient it is very real - however there runs the risk there might be no PPN about.

[cold snap]

Move along now, nothing to see here. Come back in January.

I still fail to see where the evidence for optimism sprung from. Maybe people are beginning to subconsciously become brainwashed by the likes of Jimmy Maddman's ramblings, because of course he says doesn't use the models! ;-)

ECM is king and has stuck to its guns. If I were a betting man I would go for a Rosenbloom northerly shift in the 27th's storm track. Too far north and too much modification for a proper snow event, apart from the north.

All models overstated Greenland heights

Look at the models now .no heights

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe Boxing Day at the most, probably Christmas Day, lots of uncertainty beyond with regard to the 'cut off' low scenario. Its a volatile set up, expect many further twists and turns making any longer range forecasting very difficult.

 

I'm keeping a very open mind, sudden developments likely to occur.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening Folks. A turbulent time in model watching, but Christmas day itself and has been consistently modelled as being cold and very seasonal with one or two places seeing a  white Christmas. After that the storm modelled especially from the gfs Should be taken seriously or though at this stage the details will definitely change, ecm is one step behind,  If youre  looking for Drama on the Tv this Christmas, Then look no further than gfs and ecm  thanks to Netweather :w00t:

[John Snow]

The weather will do what it wants to do,I have seen things go pear shaped hours before the event! so no point falling out over things

Edited December 21, 2014 by John Snow

[nick sussex]

Someone could make a mini series concerning the models for the last few days.

 

At times this has been like a search for the Holy Grail in terms of cold! It's heartening to see the UKMO just as uncertain as the outputs given the Week Ahead forecast.

 

In terms of which model is most likely to be wrong, at this point the UKMO. Having looked at the NCEP Duty Forecasters maps they show zero backing for its view of the pattern over there in the USA.

 

As for the rest its obvious theres not much love in here for the ECM, when its ensembles come out I would be surprised if theres not a huge spread of solutions to the west similar to the GEFS.

 

It would be great if we could just get some agreement upto T144hrs tomorrow morning, this saga has already gone on for too long....

[Jason M]

No dig at you but to be frank you're being misleading! for the past few days GFS has been displaying 850s sufficient for snow across wide stretches of the UK, as the low pulls away colder air digs in whatever falls will likely be snow, albeit transient it is very real - however there runs the risk there might be no PPN about.

image.jpgimage.jpg

Good luck with that. To be fair you have at least used some charts to attempt to back up your point, but precipation has already left by this point.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=156&mode=2

In fairness a few wintry showers are left in the NW which would be snow to higher ground over the mountains in the NW and Pennines, also bear in mind that snow will show wherever there is predicted to be snow somewhere in the plotted grid. So don't assume that because snow is shown its as widespread as it might appear from the GFS precip charts. At sea level you would be unlikely to get any laying snow.

Would there be a few flakes on the back edge of the rain as it departs, possibly. But unless you live high up, you might want to tape up your eyelids in case you blink and miss it :-)

A few further points, -8c 850s on a maritime flow with no embedded cold is extremely marginal at best, even if it coincides with something falling out of the sky. We can't even rely on evaporative cooling as it will be too windy. Furthermore, ground temps will be too high for anything that does fall to settle for any length of time (if at all).

As for being misleading, I'll let others decide who they want to believe and we can always review the position after the (non) event.

Edited December 21, 2014 by Jason M

[Stuie]

GFS P precipitation HD has pretty much gone from rain to snow for next Sat (Anglia). Pinch of salt maybe but pretty excited for the model week ahead.

 

[Team Jo]

With 500+ people reading this thread I think it would be nice in the interest of keeping things coherent and civil, we could perhaps best the following in mind:

- if you feel the ecm/GFS/jem/ whatever is 'rubbish' or you have a good, cognitive; scientific reason that you're writing off the entire winter, it would be wonderful if you could perhaps back your observations up with some fact/illustration

- if you feel the urge to post something inflammatory then perhaps consider if saying the same thing to a complete stranger in real life would result in a bar fight.. Just because we aren't all in the same room, doesn't mean it's okay to act like a jerk.

It's not about 'pulling people up' or 'telling off' - we are just trying to keep the conversation relevant, friendly,, informative and accurate.

[karlos1983]

Dunno, beats me too John. Just the latest fad if you ask me.

 

Strange thing this. I come home, look at the models and am gobsmacked at the cold setups and great festive fun we're about to have.

 

Then I read half the posts on here and it's like you are living in a parallel universe. I think a lot of it is reverse psychology: NW model addicts love cold weather and tell everyone else, and try and convince even themselves, that everything is just so awful it's hardly worth breathing before January. Then everything that actually occurs is a pleasant surprise.

 

Meanwhile in the real world: great cold setups ahead. It's going to be a lot of fun.

Not sure what charts your looking at, think maybe if you step back and take a non cold bias look, you will realise that from tonight's output things don't look great. Could change come tomorrow, but right now, UKMO and ECM are not good for prolonged cold

[blizzard81]

Well, the JMA is backed up by the mighty CFS week 2 anomaly. I don't know why but I have a gut feeling

that tomorrow's models are going to flip to cold at quite short notice with pressure rising to our north west.

 

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

This thread will be locked shortly and a new one will be made for the pub run. Time for a clean slate.

Edited December 21, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[karlos1983]

Ok, this thread will be locked shortly and a new one will be made for the pub run.

Good

[Hocus Pocus]

Well, the JMA is backed up by the mighty CFS week 2 anomaly. I don't know why but I have a gut feeling

that tomorrow's models are going to flip to cold at quite short notice with pressure rising to our north west.

 

wk1_wk2_20141220_z500.gif

It's happened before when there's been so much volatility in the models, lets face it if the pros are struggling then us mere mortals have no chance.

[Summer Sun]

GFS P again hinting at some fairly widespread snow next weekend

 

 

Although nothing too heavy next weekend could yet still save some going a full calendar year snow free

[Schmalex]

This thread will be locked shortly and a new one will be made for the pub run. Time for a clean slate.

Might it be possible to have a little less willy waving from some posters in the next thread?

[Captain Shortwave]

Thread locked

 

New thread here - https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82079-model-output-discussion-the-final-stretch-to-christmas/