Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

[John Cox]

Hi folks my name is Steve. I'm new on here.i have studied charts and data for over 30 years .I live on the North East coast of the uk in Bridlington. I'm expecting on and around the 27th to experience snow of which will include squally hail and maybe even thunder. I'm using a Samsung galaxy S5 so excuse some mis typing I love the technical aspects used on this site but I keep my forecasts of an easy read and never go beyond T+144 hrs for long range. For a living in the winter I plough and grit railway property .and weather and chart data plays a vital role in my job .sorry about posting here if it's the wrong thread. Many thanks Steve.

Welcome Steve,

 

With over 30 years of charts and data studies I'm sure you will be a become a valued contributor to the forum.

[SteveB]

Hi Steve and welcome.

 

Great job, bet you've seen your fair share of snow.

[tinybill]

The experts are now mentioning the word stormy with increasing frequency now so it does look like we will get a battering next weekend, a stormy mix of heavy rain, severe gales and don't rule out leading edge snow as fronts bump into the newly formed cold pool covering the UK and depending on the track, all points north of the low centre could have snow since they would stay in cold air which would then be sweeping south as the low tracks away eastwards.

all i say to that fun times ahead  and a  many late  night  model watching  glad im off work   till jan5 !!!

[sorepaw1]

Thanks for making me feel welcome I've seen lovely sunny days as well as some major snow storms up here . I'm happy to offer help to anyone with this approaching storm.I would say that the media will have there hands full on this one in relation to potentially damaging wind speeds and snow even to low levels. With high pressure in the Atlantic around this time it will be interesting to see whether an high pressure easterly forms.theres certainly a lot of low pressure activity north of Greenland this year making a Greenland high difficult to become established above 1048mb which we need for a sustainable cold spell .or of course a scandi high.in my years of study any high pressure system below 1035mb which acts as an Atlantic block rarely makes the grade foe a sustainable cold spell.looking forward to seeing snow this year.thanks again.

Edited December 21, 2014 by sorepaw1

[Barry12]

GFS 12z has moved towards ECM at 120

 

[Banbury]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014122112/gfsnh-0-138.png?12

 

GFS 12z has the LP much further North compared to this mornings run

[Matty M]

GFS OP moving towards the much malinged ECMWF, with the low further to the northwest but still set to bash eastern Britain..

 

 

 

The parallel will be interesting to see..

[Muffelchen]

Hi folks my name is Steve. I'm new on here.i have studied charts and data for over 30 years .I live on the North East coast of the uk in Bridlington. I'm expecting on and around the 27th to experience snow of which will include squally hail and maybe even thunder. I'm using a Samsung galaxy S5 so excuse some mis typing I love the technical aspects used on this site but I keep my forecasts of an easy read and never go beyond T+144 hrs for long range. For a living in the winter I plough and grit railway property .and weather and chart data plays a vital role in my job .sorry about posting here if it's the wrong thread. Many thanks Steve.

Welcome to the forum Steve. Living in Bev, I hope you are right  but I have to say that I am losing the faith this year. The recurring return of cold zonality and the persistence of the PV (or bit thereof) in the Greenland area has been a surprise, given the synoptics in October, but it is still there and those model-biased modelled Greeny heights never seem to materialise inside T120, so I think we will get much of the same for the remainder of the winter, unless there is a major pattern-change. This has been much-touted but each and every time it has then receded back into FI.

 

NW winds are useless for snow here as I am sure they are in Brid: we need an easterly component and this has been and continues to be missing this winter...

[Weathizard]

In all honesty, this is a pretty poor chart.

There was so much potential a few days ago, that it seems has gone. Polar vortex appears to be wanting to move back over Greenland In the longer term amongst the ensembles & the ops, and with pressure high to the south that spells trouble during winter.

Edit: perhaps poor is not the correct word, but considering what was offered a few days ago, it is

Edited December 21, 2014 by Weathizard

[Joe Levy]

Cold uppers from the GFS(P) in a potent Northerly. 

[IDO]

Rain to snow event on both the GFS op and P with the different tracks of the storm next weekend:

 

P: 

 

UKMO trying to flatten upstream: 

[SE Blizzards]

In all honesty, this is a pretty poor chart.

There was so much potential a few days ago, that it seems has gone. Polar vortex appears to be wanting to move back over Greenland In the longer term amongst the ensembles & the ops, and with pressure high to the south that spells trouble during winter.

Edit: perhaps poor is not the correct word, but considering what was offered a few days ago, it is

 

Completely disagree.

 

I think you have made the cardinal sin and commented on a run wayyyy to early.

 

This chart screams potential if you ask me....

 

[Joe Levy]

Heights trying to make their way into Greenland on the GFS 12z OP - very different to the previous run

[snowice]

In all honesty, this is a pretty poor chart.

There was so much potential a few days ago, that it seems has gone. Polar vortex appears to be wanting to move back over Greenland In the longer term amongst the ensembles & the ops, and with pressure high to the south that spells trouble during winter.

Edit: perhaps poor is not the correct word, but considering what was offered a few days ago, it is

-8 uppers in parts I don't know how you can say it's poor? Edited December 21, 2014 by snowice

[Matty M]

Some agreement, the UKM backing up.

 

A deep depression near the UK around the 27th.

 

[sorepaw1]

Welcome to the forum Steve. Living in Bev, I hope you are right  but I have to say that I am losing the faith this year. The recurring return of cold zonality and the persistence of the PV (or bit thereof) in the Greenland area has been a surprise, given the synoptics in October, but it is still there and those model-biased modelled Greeny heights never seem to materialise inside T120, so I think we will get much of the same for the remainder of the winter, unless there is a major pattern-change. This has been much-touted but each and every time it has then receded back into FI.

 

NW winds are useless for snow here as I am sure they are in Brid: we need an easterly component and this has been and continues to be missing this winter...

Nice to meet you I was in Beverley today.i have to agree in part.lots of low pressure activity in the far North this year .no establishment of high pressure over eastern Europe. But this makes for a roller coaster of a winter which will be very interesting indeed. The charts will throw out alsorts of projections in FI.low pressure over southern Europe would make an interesting model watch.

[swfc]

Much better nh and ridging on the 12z control!!!!

[ukpaul]

Much better nh and ridging on the 12z control!!!!

 

Control hasn't even started its output yet.

[Ice Day]

228 and the op is looking very interesting.  Setting up an decent easterly maybe???? 

 

 

[swfc]

Here we go again lol!!! Up she goes and another storyline begins

[Duane S.]

Much better nh and ridging on the 12z control!!!!

Do you mean parallel?

[Muffelchen]

Nice to meet you I was in Beverley today.i have to agree in part.lots of low pressure activity in the far North this year .no establishment of high pressure over eastern Europe. But this makes for a roller coaster of a winter which will be very interesting indeed. The charts will throw out alsorts of projections in FI.low pressure over southern Europe would make an interesting model watch.

Agreed, and the UKMO is modelling this at the mo. However, this was the situation for about three weeks earlier this autumn/winter and we had an Easterly draw as you will remember. However, the low strength of the wind (hardly turned a turbine in our turbine infested part of the country!) and the warmth of the continent prevented this from developing into anything of note. As I posted earlier, this seems to be the pattern this winter: missed opportunities that came close but no cigar. I am a believer in patterns and I think this one is set now sadly.

 

However, I do still have a little hope (and the model biases for Greeny highs in FI are showing themselves again this afternoon) as I remember the pattern change in early January 2011 from the deep cold we had been having to mild mush that lasted the rest of the winter. This could happen in reverse but the signs this year are always fleeting and disappear from run to run.

Edited December 21, 2014 by Muffelchen

[Blizzardof82]

IF this storm does come off on the 27th, hats off to GFSp and GFS for consistently modelling. 

[Ice Day]

Out at 210 on the parallel, the PV is looking in a state of some disarray!

 

Edited December 21, 2014 by Ice Day

[swfc]

Do you mean parallel?

sorry meant op