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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

The low is deeper at T120 but the pattern is not further west up until this point. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight

Hmm the heights on this run over Greenland isnt as far west as the 06Z, if anything its slightly further east and sort of South, interesting run so far, this could go anywhere!

 

12z

gfsnh-0-162.png?12

 

18z

gfsnh-0-156.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Well well gfs nit following ecm at all!! Infact its even better than the 12z with a shallower low crossing the uk further south! ! Maybe snowfall north of the low!!

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Looking good at 174, this could get interesting!!!!

 

gfsnh-0-174.png?18 gfsnh-1-174.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Valencia, Spain or Angmering, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: 22-38C in summer with storms, cold in winter with some snow/or 15-25C
  • Location: Valencia, Spain or Angmering, West Sussex

Low situated further south and with a nice clean northerly shot, should be an interesting run.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Well well gfs nit following ecm at all!! Infact its even better than the 12z with a shallower low crossing the uk further south! ! Maybe snowfall north of the low!!

 

amazing, was just thinking shaky will be on soon mentioning the low/shortwave, crossing on boxing day! yeah definitely shallower

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Looks a little suspect upstream with that low getting much further northeast than on most other runs but certainly a good outcome here, in fact no milder air manages to make it in at all for northern Britain on Boxing Day or the 27th and some real snow potential from the shortwave tracking south:

gfsnh-0-174.png?18

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Tasty pub run coming out, no phasing, all secure AND SNOW.

 

gfs-2-180.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight

That low at 180, would sure to bring snow to quite a few places, even as far as the south coast as passes through as the colder air gets sucked down all over the UK! very interesting run indeed!

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border

Looking good at 174, this could get interesting!!!!

 

gfsnh-0-174.png?18 gfsnh-1-174.png?18

 

yes very :)

gfs-2-180.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Now that is a lovely looking chart at 180!!!

 

gfsnh-0-180.png?18

Edited by Ice Day
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

Southerly tracking low, bringing in the floodgates of cold weather from the North and also a snow event for wherever the boundary of cold and mild air sits.

 

If we can carry on from this theme of the low tracking south then the odds are in our favor. 

 

Hopefully some model consistency by Monday. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

Dangerous storm not too far off south-east coast. 

 

But so many changes ahead, it is poised so delicately with that block over the Atlantic and whether a short-wave can get to the poleward side of the jet

 

gfs-0-186.png?18?18

Edited by Matty M
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Interesting that GFS 18z cuts off the mid-atlantic low at T144 as UKMO does. I'm guessing this will allow an easier build of heights to our west and hence less risk of west based -nao. Will await the rest of the run with interest.

Up to T186 as I write and indeed it has happened, the North Sea "bomb" already in place by 27th December, good grief that looks calamitous and not just because of snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Interesting that GFS 18z cuts off the mid-atlantic low at T144 as UKMO does. I'm guessing this will allow an easier build of heights to our west and hence less risk of west based -nao. Will await the rest of the run with interest.

Up to T186 as I write and indeed it has happened, the North Sea "bomb" already in place by 27th December, good grief that looks calamitous and not just because of snow.

 

I'm assuming this is the severe weather event that Ian Ferguson alluded to earlier today?  It looks both exciting and worrying in equal measures!

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

So another variation from gfs 18z.For me the change on the nh chart from the 12z is way to diff for me and the high slips south way to quickly.Another run and none the wiser imo so see what tom brings???Also the 850s arnt great

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

I think this run is a safer run to bring a Northerly albeit it is quite a brief affair on this run but i'm not too bothered about that personally... A lot of change is to be expected regarding the detail side of things so no doubt there be more variations from run to run. 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFS continues to show a very Stormy period around the 27th, With bitter temps gales and blizzard conditions in places on a cold N/E flow. A proper winter storm, Also seems to fit in with Lorenzo/Chio's thought's.

 

180-602UK.GIF?19-18gfsnh-5-192.png?18gfsnh-0-180.png?18

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Seems as though the GFS has cranked up the Vortex 300% nothing changes after all these years.

 

I've seen enough of this run but I shall rest well with the shift in the models.

 

*Hoping* to see the ECM move towards the others (heh never normally say that) in the morning. Also peeps don't worry about what happens AFTER the northerly.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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