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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Would the ECM be such a bad thing. At least we wouldn't see coastal flooding storms heavy rain. Would suit a lot of people that suffered last winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

ECM almost a carbon copy of the 0z.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Well at 192 hours ecm seems light years from the other models???Pressure to the south is higher but how can there be so much distance ie output????

 

There isn't. It is all about the timing of the shortwave energy and how they merge with the longwave pattern.

If they do not merge together as with ECM a cold spell is pretty much locked in. If they merge a milder Atlantic spell is pretty much locked in. (at least for a time though I believe we would have another opportunity fairly soon within the New year but don't want to keep chasing when we have cold spell so close we can almost feel it)

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything even slightly exciting & less Vanilla.
  • Location: Kent

ECM says no, with a very west based neg NAO and a screaming SW flow over Britain by Dec 27

 

ECM1-192.GIF

That HP could be around for some time if it verifies.

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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

The ECM is out on it's own tonight, that's not to say it's wrong of course. A look at the other models at day 8...

 

gfsnh-0-192.png?12gfsnh-0-192.png?12JN192-21.GIF?19-12ncmrwfnh-0-192.png?00

 

ECM:

 

ECH1-192.GIF?19-0

 

Based on this I would say the ECM solution is very unlikely, if the ECM mean looks more like the other models, we could almost discount this. But you never know.

Edited by Barry95
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Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

Lol, colds off again. It does make model watching exciting though as no sooner do you think you've got a consensus then one of the main models does a U turn. All aboard the merry go round tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

Tonight's ECM demonstrates why I don't share the excitement on here today.

GFS has been all over the place recently while ECM has been a little more consistent, yes the MetO is on board to a limited extent but this route to cold is extremely unusual and extremely risky with forecasted uppers ranging from -9c to +9c at day 9!

It's all FI and I suspect we will get a less severe but still cold outcome in the end .

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Yes disappointing from the ECM.The ridging held further west leaving the UK on the milder side of the Atlantic jet.

It looked underwhelming early doors with poor warm air advection into Greenland

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014121912/ECH1-120.GIF?19-0

Everything then is delayed and we get a poor orientation and placement of the Atlantic high later.

The uncertainty continues,all eyes on the later ens.

Edited by phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Can't remember ever seeing a chart like the 216 hrs from tonight's ECM.

 

 

I challenge someone to find one like it from the archives. :smiliz23:

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Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

I personally would have been very surprised if we had cross model agreement at T192 and even if we did, there would inevitably be a model tomorrow morning that dumped the idea of cold instead!

 

ECM goes wrong between T144 and T168 and doesn't allow the block to ridge between the lows, causing them to phase together instead. We end up with a belt of low pressure stretching from the southern mid Atlantic right up to Siberia! It looks wrong to be honest, but that doesn't mean it is of course.

 

Plenty more solutions to be played out over the weekend I imagine!


Can't remember ever seeing a chart like the 216 hrs from tonight's ECM.

 

attachicon.gifECH1-216.GIF

 

I challenge someone to find one like it from the archives. :smiliz23:

Yes, that huge elongated belt of low pressure just looks so odd, I really can't remember seeing anything like it before. For that reason, I hope it's got it completely wrong!!

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Lots of nice deep snowdrifts with all the strong winds and arctic air, something we were not able to say of the poor recent winters. Another day and what a difference to the mood in here 24 hours ago..I think a major wintery spell is on the way with prolonged longevity once we get through the mild start to next week..then let the good times roll,frost, snow, ice, blizzards, drifting = Heavenly :-)

Where? When? Wheres the charts to support this? It is not a done deal id have thought youd have learned that by now! :p

 

Edited by Osbourne One-Nil
Well do the moderating thanks!
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

It's lucky theres a swear filter in here otherwise I fear I may have got a ban! lol

 

At this point given every other output has the shortwave about to be ejected at T144hrs then I think we should view tonights ECM horror show as someone sitting down and plotting every synoptic interaction that would lead to the worst possible outcome and dishing it out as the operational run.

 

It's very unlikely this operational run will verify, sadly the ECM after a big move from the other models has decided to deliver a big let down.

 

As the key shortwave is showing at T144hrs I'm sure this will be resolved in the morning. It's a nerve shredding wait for many in here but in all honesty I cannot see this run verifying as shown, it might be an initial western based negative NAO but not the series of events from tonights ECM.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

Can't remember ever seeing a chart like the 216 hrs from tonight's ECM.

 

attachicon.gifECH1-216.GIF

 

I challenge someone to find one like it from the archives. :smiliz23:

The ECM is very messy even half way through, I think it's trying to flip to a more believable solution and getting lost along the way.  Well, it's a solution, but I don't like it :-D 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Is not the ecm 12z severely out of sync with met office update..I rest my case..next please..seriously, the ecm has been wrong so often, me thinks it's wrong again,over to mogreps met office fergie bbc expert.

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Posted
  • Location: Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything even slightly exciting & less Vanilla.
  • Location: Kent

ECM has chained itself to the gates of frigidness and is protesting loudly.

 

Time for the GFS and UKMO to get the bolt croppers out and remove him !

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Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

T240 on ECM looks a bit colder again from the North but where have all the Greenland heights gone?

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014121912/ECH1-240.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

Remember 24 hours back re ecm op all?

Best judge where it sits in the ensembles before reaching for nicks new and improved 2014/2015 prozac pills..

Mild outlier again let's hope :)

Wise words

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

It's lucky theres a swear filter in here otherwise I fear I may have got a ban! lol

 

At this point given every other output has the shortwave about to be ejected at T144hrs then I think we should view tonights ECM horror show as someone sitting down and plotting every synoptic interaction that would lead to the worst possible outcome and dishing it out as the operational run.

 

It's very unlikely this operational run will verify, sadly the ECM after a big move from the other models has decided to deliver a big let down.

 

As the key shortwave is showing at T144hrs I'm sure this will be resolved in the morning. It's a nerve shredding wait for many in here but in all honesty I cannot see this run verifying as shown, it might be an initial western based negative NAO but not the series of events from tonights ECM.

Indeed nick,guess its a red for you then!!!
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Can't remember ever seeing a chart like the 216 hrs from tonight's ECM.

 

attachicon.gifECH1-216.GIF

 

I challenge someone to find one like it from the archives. :smiliz23:

Yes very bizarre looking together with the T192hrs. I'm minded to call it synoptic garbage, I've see many western negative NAO set ups but nothing like the drivel dished out by tonights ECM.

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