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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

Haha lets hope you've not cursed the run by praising it so early :)

At the point of post , the comment was a fair one, would you not agree , and at present anything after 120 could be considered FI

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The problem is not amplification, that will happen, it is where. GFS has shortwaves running on the northern edge of the jet cutting off the Atlantic ridge so it cannot build to Greenland: 

 

post-14819-0-50015800-1418984462_thumb.p

 

So the amplification will be further west and that kills a cold shot for the UK in that time frame.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

well ive not read through the last 6 pages since i was on, so apologies if this point has already been made ...

 

post-2797-0-96481400-1418983780_thumb.gi post-2797-0-14176900-1418983795_thumb.gi

 

reasonable agreement out to day 10 over the general unsettled, often mild, pattern to continue with the previously expected post crimbo freeze now all but gone. so no white crimbo is on the cards on this mornings op runs, in fact theres hardly anything cold at all.

but this is where things from my eyes get interesting... i deliberately posted charts from day 10 above, to highlight the conflicting message this appears to be sending

post-2797-0-48966900-1418983989_thumb.gi

this noaa 500mb anaomaly chart to me (please correct me if im wrong...john?...)  doesnt suggest a large greenland high ridging into the mid atlantic, and an upper mean trough to our east . it doesnt suggest high pressure over france, nor a southwesterly jet.

so theres a huge conflict going on... and itll be interesting to see which data source becomes reality, the current ops with their mixed, unsettled, average - mild, or the anaomaly which suggests a much colder,  blocked and very cold wintry spell the sorth the gfs has been championing from the post crimbo period.

this might surprise some of you, but im going to back the noaa 500mb anomaly solution and expect their colder outcome to 'win' out, because (as jh says ) when in agreement and consistent they are right c70% of the time. tbh i expected them this morning (didnt view last night) the 8-14 dayer to have backed down from the blocked/cold option, but it appears to have amplified.

so no, i havnt turned into a cold ramper, i just think that (assuming my interpretation of the anoms are correct) a cold solution is more likely then the milder one later next week going off current data.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

To be honest we are trying to predict shortwaves here at 144, which is pointless.

Is it though? Every run has the shortwaves over Iceland and southern Greenland. They appear time and time again and that's a huge stumbling block for us. 

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

I'd say the GFS is an improvement on its earlier run (and possibly even than yesterday's), the phasing of the southern low with the Icelandic one is a bit further east(thanks to a slightly better looking Atlantic ridge in the short term) with more amplification upstream, which gives us a better chance of getting the GH to be a bit more east based. It'll still probably go wrong in low res though  :laugh:

gfsnh-0-168.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Well well is gfs beginning to smell the coffee!! Energy going over the uk instead of over the uk!!Stronger heights across greenland at 180 hours!! Steve murr did say give the gfs 24 hours to play catch up so lets see!!

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Haha you couldn't make it up. gfs boarding the cold train at day 8.

 

441 very confused Model thread users and counting.. Not 1 of them is going to be any clearer today or even tomorrow in my opinion.  :wallbash:

 

EPIC gfsnh-0-228.png?6

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

It's a stunner at day 9. Big Greenland ridge and bitter arctic air sweeping down. What a turn around. Surreal situation this is turning out to be.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

Improved 06 GFS upto 120, small changes, but big impacts, very much a nod to the ECM and UKMET. GFS has struggled with the strength of the ridge being thrown up by the cut off low mid atlantic.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121906/gfsnh-0-228.png?6

 

Great shout

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Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

Flip Flop Flip Flop - Gibby is so right about the models being all over the place. Not taking it at face value as it will no doubt be different come the 12z

Edited by festivalking
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

As expected GFS follows the ECM.

Differences at the end of the High res run T192, all stem from the very small changes upto T120. Which GFS has been rather alone in coming up with, that's its moved significantly at T120 is a big plus for today.

post-6326-0-59136300-1418985252_thumb.pn

post-6326-0-94231600-1418985258_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

This really is going to be one heck of a roller coaster ride in emotions and trying to predict the outlook.

 

Went to bed last night thinking things are looking good, after steve murrs excellent post explaining why.

 

Woke up this morning to a dire gfs thinking here we go again... Then the ECM produces a belter! lol

 

 

 

Anyone who claims to know for certain what will happen is a liar, delusional or just Piers Corbyn.........

 

I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the ride :)

 

gfsnh-0-228.png?6

 

By the way Perfect gfs 6z ;)

Edited by Harsh Climate
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

This run is a good match to the NOAA height anomolay charts thats Mushy Rob posted this morning, and we finally will have a cold/colder solution as an operational so it will be interesting to see where it sits within the ensembles. Maybe the ECM will finally not be a mild outlier on tonights 12zs.

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

I seem to remember well the cold periods of 2013 being much like this ECM picking up a pattern then the GFS would join in then UKMO would join the party and the GFS would go off on one for maybe 6-8 runs then it would slowly start to come back towards the others....I think it happened every single time...now im not saying that this is the case for the up coming period but I think it is certainly something to bare in mind....

posted this just an hour ago.....classic backtrack by the GFS so it would seem...you just couldn't make it up...

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

441 very confused Model thread users and counting.. Not 1 of them is going to be any clearer today or even tomorrow in my opinion.  :wallbash:

 

EPIC gfsnh-0-228.png?6

If you've been around long enough (which most of us have) then this is standard model chopping & changing.

 

I suspect there will be plenty more to come, I'm reserving judgement on the final outcome of what Christmas & post Christmas weather will be until I see what the models are showing on Sunday/Monday.

 

Until then, sit tight & enjoy the ride.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

GFS(P) is UGLY!

gfsnh-0-156.png?6

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

MORNING GANG ,gfs normal [old ] is not updating on my computer its still showing 00hrs ,or am i missing something ,dont want to miss a good run ,cheers .

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