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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Why use the old GFS when the GFS P is the upgraded version soon to become live?

 

You've answered your own question :p it's not fully officially operational yet and it's performance as of yet is questionable, compared to years of GFS OP verification stats. It may have a higher resolution, but in my book that doesn't mean it's better, there's been many models run at higher resolutions than the GFS, yet we follow the GFS, ECM & UKMO year in year out, there's good reasoning for it!

Edited by Backtrack
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Going to be an interesting few hours methinks - nothing ever straightforward in the world of model watching!

It's complicated isn't it. Shortwaves and bits of energy everywhere. Other than '09 and '10 I can't remember a clean evolution to cold!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

One step forward, two steps back. 

Twas ever thus chasing wavering cold signals.

 

If things go as they usually do then two lackluster GFS efforts will be followed by ECM producing a deep freeze.

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

Downgrade at present for Christmas day cold, but this could easily revert back to cold on the next runs. As we all know, fickle is an understatement for charts!!

 

We await with Intrepid interest for the next two days or so when the situation can begin to firm up a little more!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Those of you preying to your model God to remove any chance of a west based -NAO are rewarded with the pattern too Far East !!!

The anomoly looks akin to yesterday's exm 00z mean in week 2. Just more evidence that the envelope remains very broad.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Would be nice if some stepped back and thought a little before posting. Let's keep discussion friendly please ☺

Thanks PM

Precisely PM.The running commentary is comical.162 is a ball breaker and looking fine at the same time.?Chill pills in cabinet.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

It's complicated isn't it. Shortwaves and bits of energy everywhere. Other than '09 and '10 I can't remember a clean evolution to cold!

 

Yes all the very amplified GFS runs relied on two pulses of WAA firing up the Atlantic ridge to Greenland. The GFS op on the 12z doesn't succeed with either and the P now only really gets one cycle. We see from what follows neither will sustain a block and at the best, with one wave of WAA we get a toppler (P).

 

We then have to wait for another ridge at the end of December before we can have another shot: post-14819-0-16091200-1418920878_thumb.p

 

The P becomes flat again by d9 UK wise: post-14819-0-21476700-1418920943_thumb.p

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Quite frankly the 2 12z gfs runs are horrid and shows just how wrong it can go. Can the situation be saved though or has the rot set in for the Post Christmas day period? Another day or two to be sure. Expect nothing and you won't be too gutted if nothing is what you get!

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Posted
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt

Why use the old GFS when the GFS P is the upgraded version soon to become live?

Because the parallel is not the soon to be come live operational. It's the parallel of an unfinished model. Don't be fooled into thinking your viewing the new, finished, operational gfs.

Edited by garbagebags
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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Classic GFS - the op gets the upstream pattern right and messes up the Atlantic while the para decides to get the initial northerly in fine then manages to mess up the upstream :laugh: :

gfsnh-0-168.png?12 gfsnh-0-168.png

GEM looks closer to getting its act together (although of course the upper air temperature modelling for it is a mess too):

gemnh-0-180.png?12

The other problem we have really is the refusal of heights to clear from the south. If we could just get that first trough to dig in a bit further south it would definitely help matters.

Edited by LomondSnowstorm
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The GFS makes the most of the shortwave to the sw and delivers zero in terms of cold interest. The GFS P better but then goes downhill.

 

The problem upstream is this flattens quickly which allows that troughing to phase with the slow moving low off the eastern USA, this then pulls energy eastwards and the sum total is the GFS P which although miles better than that horror show delivered by the normal GFS is still very disappointing.

 

Overall the GFS outputs so far are akin to being told you've won a prize and then go onto find out its a week at the local Butlins compared to 2 weeks on Hawaii!

 

The UKMO is okay at T144hrs although could be better, lets hope the ECM can turn up with its Santa hat on!

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Such stark contrasts between the 06Z and 12Z op, xmas & post xmas. I'd suggest waiting for the GEFS before jumping to conclusions, surely?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GEM a carbon copy of the ECM except it takes the shortwave SE across the UK in a west based NAO background....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=150&code=0&carte=1&mode=0&archive=0

S

 

 

It is certainly the pick of this evenings output so far.

 

gemnh-0-222.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

Just need the Huge Medi High to bugger off to allow a nice flow from the North!!

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

That's the Parallel Run..... apples and Pears

They always seem to be so different, wonder if the new one is actually more accurate :)

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

Why use the old GFS when the GFS P is the upgraded version soon to become live?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121812/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

 

Use it if you want but you still wont get a snowfest , we are clearly in a complicated pattern that changes by the day .....................link FI of course

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I urge people not to start making assumptions about the GFS, it has ( as usual ) gone from being consistent to throwing all the toys out the pram.

 

Now we have UKMO / GEM / ECM in range we don't have to rely on the GFS- it should be said though ALL models have moved towards the ECM solution presented yesterday- ( that's bigger picture ) the shortwave will ultimately decide the pattern....

 

S

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

You've answered your own question :p it's not fully officially operational yet and it's performance as of yet is questionable, compared to years of GFS OP verification stats. It may have a higher resolution, but in my book that doesn't mean it's better, there's been many models run at higher resolutions than the GFS, yet we follow the GFS, ECM & UKMO year in year out, there's good reasoning for it!

 

The statistics suggest your post is perhaps not correct?

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Viewing the output this evening, one gets the impression this has come too early in terms of stratospheric state. It's just not conducive enough for HLB establishment yet. It's extremely frustrating watching the stubbornness of the vortex this year given on the face of it it has little working for it!

It's always just one more blow away from being taken out but then inexplicably stumbles back to its feet.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121812/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

 

Use it if you want but you still wont get a snowfest , we are clearly in a complicated pattern that changes by the day .....................link FI of course

I am not using it to get a snowfest. I am using it because it is the GFS upgraded version. Whether it turns out to be on the money or not it certainly has been the most consistent of the models in the past few days that is for sure.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I urge people not to start making assumptions about the GFS, it has ( as usual ) gone from being consistent to throwing all the toys out the pram.

 

Now we have UKMO / GEM / ECM in range we don't have to rely on the GFS- it should be said though ALL models have moved towards the ECM solution presented yesterday- ( that's bigger picture ) the shortwave will ultimately decide the pattern....

 

S

 

not strictly true Steve, the upper air pattern wil ldecide what happens to the low level system?

but best I go and look what all this is about, if I can discover what time frame is causing so much interest?

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

The statistics suggest your post is perhaps not correct?

 

But John, years of GFS at standard resolution, vs what, a month of GFS Parallel? Quantifiable evidence to currently use the GFS OP over the parallel, despite the higher resolution, surely?

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

I am not using it to get a snowfest. I am using it because it is the GFS upgraded version. Whether it turns out to be on the money or not it certainly has been the most consistent of the models in the past few days that is for sure.

Are you sure , I saw something from Brian on TWO saying the current GFS was verifying much better up to x hours

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