Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas

[Cheshire Freeze]

Check out days 9 to 11 on the GFS parallel. Snowpocalypse.

Yep a stunner of a run. Up there with some of the best model output I've seen churned out.

Gets better towards the end too as the high looks to be sheared off successfully towards Scandi with a reload of cold looming from the east. Vortex in tatters.

Edited December 18, 2014 by CreweCold

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

GFS Parallel 00z = Absolute Magic! 

 

If things stay as they are, then this looks a contender for 62/63 if ever I've seen it! Might be getting a bit carried away there, but hey! 

 

Best charts I've ever seen for a December output, rivalling 2010 with ease.

[The Eagle]

Parallel run = too good to be true. Stunning. But it ain't a patch on the certainty and sheer madness of the 2010 output.

Edited December 18, 2014 by The Eagle

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS Parallel 00z = Absolute Magic! 

 

If things stay as they are, then this looks a contender for 62/63 if ever I've seen it! Might be getting a bit carried away there, but hey! 

 

Best charts I've ever seen for a December output, rivalling 2010 with ease.

IF IF that GFS P run came off, Jan 2010 would feel tropical in comparison. Length of cold plus lying snow and time of year combined, I genuinely believe the UK cold record would be under threat given any clearance of showers and slackening of winds.

[Roger J Smith]

GEM on the same course something like a compromise of GFS and GFSp but rather slow and plodding (typically Canadian I guess) ... probably delivers snow by the day 10.5 that isn't on the charts.

 

I noticed earlier on that the GME as far as it goes seemed to be wanting to get the cold air building reasonably quickly.

 

No telling what the ECM might have in store but there are many strong hints in these models of west Atlantic blocking -- the GFS op just has that look of being too quick to relax the block, if it's going to build up gradually over five or six days then why would it just shift east and collapse? Anyway, the ECM might try to blend these themes with an Atlantic with a bit of fight left in it, which could be even better.

 

Guess we can reconvene at 0700 when the verdict is known.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

How about this for an early Christmas Present..

 

 

 

                 

Edited December 18, 2014 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[SMU]

Morning All

Slightly easier model runs today with as suggested a beaut of a gfs (p) all the way from 150-384

Also the GFS + GFS control + GEM have moved away from the atlantic spoiler shortwave moving NE & spoiling the show -

A word of warning though - that NE track is still apparent in around 45% of the ENS & NAVGEM op -

( the cold & very cold solutions have that atlantic spoiler system moving west or North west under the block.

So a very distinct split today, we await the ECM we need a swing from that model to instill confidence - especially as this has been the leader of the NE track.

A model face off of which I hope the ECM loses-

Not long to wait........

[snowangel32]

Hi steve learnt alot from you the past year, from your experience which way do you think that shortwave will track no pressure lol. And is there any hints from noaa as this will surely also effect the states.

[TobyT]

Morning all.

Nice bit of eye candy to wake up to this morning. Still out in FI but I think we just may be on the cusp of a major pattern change and this could become a memorable winter event not seen for many a year...No ramping intended ;-)  Well fingers crossed and great model watching indeed!!!!

[Polar Maritime]

As has already been said, Another stunning run from the GFS this morning for cold prospects Christmas onwards. With High Pressure being pumped way up into Greenland, Drawing a bitter cold N/N/Ely over the UK.  

 

Edited December 18, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[The Eagle]

ECM @ 192, st stephen's day, pretty good.

[chris55]

GFS para looking rather nice this morning. Perfect Xmas pressie for (most) of us lot on here. Still tentative though. Interesting to see where we are on the 12zs.

[Abyss]

To my untrained eye the 3 look pretty similar at 192

ECM

 

GFS(P)

 

GFS

[timboy666]

Looking very good for the 27 onward

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM gives a few classic crisp and sunny winter days. But snowfall would be restricted to coast areas of western Scotland in any showers produced.

Again that west based -NAO appearing with the next wave of cold air engaging that Atlantic low.

The GFS/Parallel and GEM show a more significant ridge from the Azores which aids and re-enforces the northerly. The ECM shows a weaker and more rounded feature.

Summed up by the day 10 chart which is mild and wet for most away from northern Scotland.

Edited December 18, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[ITSY]

ECM spoiling the party right now. Good to see gem on board but I'm always uncertain if ECM

Doesn't follow. Seems reluctant...

GFS P is so ridiculous id take it with a pinch of salt!

[winterof79]

Ok that pinch of salt I was talking about last night has now become a bag of grit salt.The models now firming up on a true white Christmas period.Patience required in specifics remember.Ecm would come good as the mid Atlantic ridge is building.

Edited December 18, 2014 by winterof79

[terrier]

Think until the ECM comes on board we should be very sceptical. The gfsp should in my opinion ignored this morning it just looks totally out of kilter. ECM seems to be following a west based nao which isn't great for the uk. Maybe the gfs gfsp will move towards the ECM towards the weekend.

[Man With Beard]

As has already been said, Another stunning run from the GFS this morning for cold prospects Christmas onwards. With High Pressure being pumped way up into Greenland, Drawing a bitter cold N/N/Ely over the UK.  

 

And may I point out, again, that this is now I think the fifth time in a row that the GFS(P) has picked out this scenario for December 27th - incredible that it could be so consistent at such long range.

A bit of a contrast with the ECM op which, while not terrible and still has snow hope for some, is going to delay a major cold push until at least 29th, if it makes it at all!

[Abyss]

ECM Day 10, if that were to verify would it not turn rapidly colder from the NW? I don't think it's bad

[bluearmy]

again, latter parts of op runs (and that includes the gfs) is to be taken with lots of pinches of salts. What I would add is that the gfsp seems far more in line with the ECM ens mean than the ECM op. However, the higher res of the op is causing issues in the Atlantic and the op could be onto something. looking at the overall day 10 profile, even if this initial Atlantic fellow turns into a spoiler, what we're left with at day 10 shouldn't be overlooked (re NH profile).

it WILL turn colder. Whether that means snowfall before year end or we have to wait until the new year, it certainly looks good overall.

more caveats relate to the gefs where it seems we may end up with an MLB - again, if the NH profile is becoming primed, that would not be a terrible place to be.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think in this instance a well placed shortwave could be our friend - in the GFS P we see the secondary low tracking southeastwards, pulling the jet south and keeping us on the colder side. The problem with the ECM is that we see too much ridging from the south when the main low giving the northerly passes through, which forces the jet north. I still think the ECM would end up cold past D10 because the Greenland high is still in place and the low pressure has nowhere else to go but east but it would be a lot cleaner if we could see lower heights getting into the continent.

It also isn't really a west based NAO on the ECM as some are saying, certainly not in the classic sense where we end up with low pressure stuck in the Atlantic and south westerlies.

Edited December 18, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[West is Best]

So, ECM is currently failing to play ball: cold but crisp for a few days then a hasty breakdown rather than the snowiest of GFS, especially GFS P which is pretty remarkable. Am I right in thinking that GFS P will be their new gold standard model run in 2015?

 

It seems strange to be in a position where the GFS is the most mid-Atlantic blocked output compared to ECM which rushes back to zonality.

 

Pattern changes are rarely successfully picked up on by outputs and they do this yo-yoing. I cannot see how the evolution on ECM from T168 to T192 to T216 is occurring. They have a LP west of the Azores which breaks through to the north of Scotland at T240 very very fast? It's odd to see a LP coming from that deep south. On the GFS at the same timescale the low is held by the mid-Atlantic block, sheers off north-west and fills.

 

My hunch is that ECM isn't right: it looks odd to me. Low pressures from as far south as the Azores need a jet pattern to match and I can't see it. But that could be wishful thinking.

 

 

(By the way I've had doubts about ECM for a couple of years. It seems very volatile.)

Edited December 18, 2014 by West is Best

[Polar Maritime]

The ECM is only just catching up with the GFSP towards the end of the run. Both good runs this morning, It will be interesting how the ECM handles the Greenland High in future out-put. I expect many more variations yet with detail still being left to one side.

 

Edited December 18, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Mother Goose]

BBC not buying into any prolonged cold spell. 6-10 day forecast from Darren Bett has just said milder air again on boxing day! I sincerely hope he is completely and utterly wrong!!