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Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas


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The models are in good agreement for the next few days for the UK to see a continuation of Atlantic dominated weather - Low Pressure to the North or North-West, and High Pressure to the South-West/South. A flow between the South-West and North-West brining a mixture of cooler and milder days. There will be further spells of rain and showers, especially to the North-West, but with some brighter periods, too. Some of the showers could be wintry on the hills to the North and North-West, especially this Friday and into the weekend as we pick up a Polar Maritime flow from the North-West. Maybe a chance of frost during the night, too, particularly during clearer skies from polar North-Westerly flows. Northern areas will tend to see the coolest conditions and be at most influence from cooler flows from the West or North-West, while those further South generally experiencing less-cold conditions.

 

Then, there is the possibility of developing amplification towards our West around Christmas, with many models hinting at some kind of mid-Atlantic ridge with possible build up of High Pressure over Greenland. This of which, if amplified enough, could force Lows to drop down to our East and deliver something chilly and wintry from the North-West or North, but some questions about how long it could last. But does seem to be a trend that's continuing. Or, perhaps, the cold and snow fans might even get something chilly from the East should the 06Z GFS's Parellel idea of Lows to our South undercutting High Pressure to our North be correct. Having the trough of Lows being negatively tilted against a possible blocking High to our North or North-East could certainly help with the latter. 

 

With the 12Z runs coming out now, could definitely provide a lot of suspense and excitement for those after cold weather and/or pattern changes.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Unfortunately, there needs to be a recognition that if we share at *this tentative juncture* the exact nature of what we have as Ops Centre guidance, certain individuals will inevitably extrapolate/wa

If the UK can't get cold from an upstream pattern with a negatively tilted troughing setting up over the ne USA , indeed the best set up since two winters ago then I will seriously consider throwing m

The good news just keeps on coming!   Upstream pattern is falling into place to deliver what many people in this thread want to see, NCEP give us the best update since winter 2012/2013,  indeed I'm

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The ecm extended ens and 6z ens do show a more volatile outlook regard to the position of the pv and move it more towards canada.Whether the rise in pressure towards xmas towards greeland"if it happens"will be strong enough to advect much colder air over the uk looks imo on a knife edge.Given the back ground signals for later in january it may be the first attempt to dislodge the pv totally so whatever the next 14 days bring may be the starter before the main course .Either way the outlook from last year is vastly improved and a much more positive outlook in that regard. :good:

Edited by swfc
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The GFS 12z is quite messy beyond Christmas day, but it maintains a cold theme right through to New Year with frontal/trough activity over the country under embedded cold air, and heights remaining strong over Greenland - with low heights trying to undercut these.

 

Indeed it would be quite a snowy picture for the north depending on where precipitation takes place.

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The GFS 12z is quite messy beyond Christmas day, but it maintains a cold theme right through to New Year with frontal/trough activity over the country under embedded cold air, and heights remaining strong over Greenland - with low heights trying to undercut these.

 

Indeed it would be quite a snowy picture for the north depending on where precipitation takes place.

Where are you viewing it? It hasn't reached Christmas day yet, let alone New Years

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An annoying lobe of the vortex hanging around greenland http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014121712/gfsnh-0-162.png?12 We need to see the yellows and greens up there. Dont get me wrong though this is a decent start to the afternoon and plenty of opportunity for some to have a white xmas. Not sure for me though as i usually need an eastern element to the wind. 

 

Not sure if the 12z is as amplified as the 6z seems to be less ridging to greenland just one run however and we all know the gfs bias. 

Edited by Continental Climate
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Barry95



Posted Today, 14:47


Things have changed a lot for Christmas day from a couple of days ago.

 

This is the chart from 3 days ago:

 

gfsnh-2014121400-0-276.png?0gfsnh-2014121400-1-276.png?0

 

This is the chart today:

 

gfsnh-0-204.png?6gfsnh-1-204.png?6

 

From +6 uppers for some to -6 uppers...

 

wasn't long ago that people were mentioning a mild Christmas day :nea:

 

oh barry you are a card! YOUVE just posted mild charts for christmas day! which is WHY people were mentioning it! :D

Edited by mushymanrob
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The GFS 12z is quite messy beyond Christmas day, but it maintains a cold theme right through to New Year with frontal/trough activity over the country under embedded cold air, and heights remaining strong over Greenland - with low heights trying to undercut these.

 

Indeed it would be quite a snowy picture for the north depending on where precipitation takes place.

Is it out beyond Xmas Day as I type , I am at 168 hrs 24/12 ????

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Hmmm Am i going mad or is Christmas on 25th Dec this year :)

 

It wouldnt take many tweeks to get a clean northerly with snow for all on the big day!  good start so far!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=174&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

Edited by Tim Bland
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UKMO at 144 is pretty good too - If we could see future frames we'd see heights building West as low pressure moves East into Scandinavia, similar to the GFS

 

post-7073-0-28553400-1418833835_thumb.gi

 

Lets just hope the ECM begins to back this idea with tonights output

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The GFS 12Z still trying to get heights into Greenland, not much has changed since the 06z.

It's all good IMO because all we want to see at this stage is heights building in Greenland which is exactly what is being played out on the latest GFS run (and the last few previous runs) and to a certain extent the last ECM run.

The detail doesn't matter at this stage, it's all about getting the greens and yellows into Greenland.

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Exciting times ahead i feel!! Gfs and ukmo pretty similar at 144 hours!! If the models are right then make the most of the next 7 days cos by end of next week we could be in the freezer!!
 

Edited by ajpoolshark
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Interestingly the ECM and GFS are pretty similar at T240. A trend towards height rises over Greenland is now more prominent. A big snow event on 27th from GFS which i can guarantee will happen because i am due to travel from the north to London via train..  

gfsnh-0-240.png?12ECH1-240.GIF?17-12

Edited by Mark Bayley
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BOOM!  loving the 12Z GFS.   amazing synoptics.  Low pressure running south Bringing a snow event from 27th. Then look at that stagnant low pressure over us and scandi while WAA is pumping up the greenland high!  It is 2 years since we have seen charts like this!!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=264&mode=0&carte=1

 

Let's pary the GFS(P) and ECM is similar !

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