The GFS countdown to Christmas 2014.

[Cloud 10]

Its that time of year again and the GFS has churned out its first Christmas day charts.

 

This is meant as more of a light hearted festive sort of thread to give an idea for the weather for the big day itself,and just using the 12z  GFS parallel to avoid chart overdose.

 

 

So,onto the first chart which is a whopping 16 days away.

 

 

A cool Westerly flow across much of the UK,and fairly unsettled, more especially in the North and little sign of any of the white stuff.

 

Just going to take the charts at face value,and obviously at this range there will be many changes to come,and lets hope so!

[Cloud 10]

15 days to go now and still no Santa smiley's.  

 

Today's chart for Christmas day from the 12z gfs.....

 

 

......is worryingly similar to yesterday's apart from the High to the Southwest being more influential,so would probably give a fairly mild and cloudy day in general.

 

Lets hope the trend doesn't continue.

 

 

[Cloud 10]

Only 2 weeks to go now,so what is today's chart suggesting?

 

 

The general trend remains the same with high pressure close to the South of the UK giving

a fairly mild  Christmas day with a breeze from the West.

 

All this consistency in FI is making me nervous.

[shetland islands]

Yep still looking like a mild Christmas. Average to below average further north, but very limited in terms of snow.

[Cloud 10]

13 days to go now...

 

 

Well,the GFS parallel was a bit late coming out this evening,but i can't say it was worth the wait.

 

High pressure in control over nearly all of the UK with a mild South-westerly flow.

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

13 days to go now...

 

gfs-0-312.png

 

Well,the GFS parallel was a bit late coming out this evening,but i can't say it was worth the wait.

 

High pressure in control over nearly all of the UK with a mild South-westerly flow.

 

 

 

oh well, 'at least it will be dry'

[Cloud 10]

12 days to go now,so what has the GFS cooked up for us today?

 

 

The general trend remains much the same with high pressure to the South of the UK

with a fairly mild Westerly flow,although it would be quite a wet day across the North

thanks to a frontal system.

[damianslaw]

As you say its conjecture at this range. Incidentally many models are suggesting a deep low from the NW on the 23rd and if this verifies no doubt it would introduce a much cooler airmass than suggested on the charts above, with the azores high shunted away..

 

At this range it may be better looking at the output for around the 22/23rd for signs of what may happen on the day.

 

In a week's time Christmas day will be within the reliable timeframe, plenty can happen between then and now.

[Cloud 10]

As you say its conjecture at this range. Incidentally many models are suggesting a deep low from the NW on the 23rd and if this verifies no doubt it would introduce a much cooler airmass than suggested on the charts above, with the azores high shunted away..

 

At this range it may be better looking at the output for around the 22/23rd for signs of what may happen on the day.

 

In a week's time Christmas day will be within the reliable timeframe, plenty can happen between then and now.

 

I would be staggered beyond belief if it continued counting down with the same consistency shown so far,as well

as being continuously irritated by the synoptic's.

[DAVID SNOW]

I would be staggered beyond belief if it continued counting down with the same consistency shown so far,as well

as being continuously irritated by the synoptic's.

 

Its done if before C 10, do you remember two weeks prior to Christmas day 2004? On and on it went, and closer and closer it got,  And  bingo(for many) it did indeed snow on THE day  (not here though)

[Cloud 10]

Its done if before C 10, do you remember two weeks prior to Christmas day 2004? On and on it went, and closer and closer it got,  And  bingo(for many) it did indeed snow on THE day  (not here though)

I will have to take your word for it DS as that was way back when i thought GFS was a sofa specialist.

 

 

Would certainly take another Christmas 2004 though.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2004/archivesnh-2004-12-25-12-0.png

[Cloud 10]

11 days to go...got all your presents yet?....didn't think so.

 

 

On the face of it,a very similar theme to previous days with high pressure to the south of the UK and a westerly flow with some rain around,especially for Northern and Western areas,however,some cold air would still be in place across the South-East thanks to a Christmas eve Northerly,so a cold and frosty start on Christmas day for some.

 

 

[knocker]

Beach barbie cancelled and NY looking dodgy. Dammit,,,,where oh where have I put those 'signals'?

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

[Gavin Hannah]

 

 

 

 

Tis the season for snow on Xmas Day!    

[Cloud 10]

Down to 10 days out now,so what has the GFS churned out this evening?

 

 

As hinted at in the post above,quite a change on today's chart from previous offerings with quite an unsettled Christmas day as a cold front heads down from the North with snow on the back edge for some higher parts of Scotland and possibly to lower levels later in the day,although probably just rain for England and Wales.

 

Hopefully this new "trend" will continue tomorrow.

 

 

[Cloud 10]

9 days to go,will we get snow.......maybe.

 

 

Today's chart from the GFS very interesting with a Low pressure approaching from the Southwest bringing rain to Southern areas early in the day,but as this moves North and engages the colder air then some snow would be likely over parts of Wales and Northern England especially in the evening and overnight.

 

A very cold day in Northern Scotland as well,with snow showers especially in the Northeast.

[Cloud 10]

Only 8 days to go now,and the tension mounts.........well,not really.

 

 

A very festive feeling day if this chart were to verify,with a cold Northwesterly flow established across the whole of the uk and some snow in some places,especially in the North and East of Scotland and also for parts of Northwest England with showers coming in off the Irish Sea.

 

Would definitely bank this for a Christmas day chart.

[Cloud 10]

A week to go now.....

 

 

 

The GFS still showing a cold Christmas for much of the UK with many parts of Scotland remaining below freezing,and still the best chance of some snow in the far Northeast of Scotland

 

The rest of the country probably cold and dry with some sunshine,although with some rain in the Southwest,and some showers clipping the East coast.

[Cloud 10]

Down to 6 days now so should be able to make a realistic forecast for Christmas Day.

 

 

 

Still looks like a cold Christmas day for the UK,and dry with some sunshine for many,although some wintry showers affecting the North of Scotland and maybe some clipping the east coast of England.

 

 

At least it will be cold.(probably).

 

 

[Cloud 10]

Down to just 5 days now.

 

 

Christmas day looks to be mainly dry and cold across the UK with plenty of sunshine,although showers will affect some Northwestern areas,some of which could be wintry.

 

A frosty start for many as well.

[Cloud 10]

4 days to go.....wasn't the office christmas party great...

 

 

 

 

GFS still going for a cold,dry and bright day across most of the UK on Christmas day,with a frosty start for many and the chance of some wintry showers down Eastern coastal counties and more especially in Northern Scotland.

 

[damianslaw]

Worth a flutter for snow to fall in Aberdeen I'd say..

 

From a local perspective, it looks a very seasonal Christmas Eve - Boxing Day period, chilly, with temps slightly below average, and the promise of a hard frost on Christmas Day night - the coldest since 2010. Hoping the fells see some white stuff and the low pressure can hold off until late on Boxing Day at least to return a cold frosty sparkling morning - good walking conditions..

 

Pity we are again enduring a very mild run in to Christmas - the 4th on the trot, pay back time it seems for 2009 and 2010. Lets hope for something better next year.

[Cloud 10]

Just 3 days left now.

 

 

 

 

A cold and bright day for most of the UK with a light Northwesterly breeze,but still a decent chance for some folk to sneak a white christmas,with the best chance looking to be in Northeast Scotland early in the day,and then a chance for some wintry showers running down eastern coastal counties as the day progresses.

 

 

 

[Cloud 10]

Just 2 days to go now....don't forget to get the turkey out the freezer. :smiliz19:

 

 

 

 

Forecast pretty much set now with a cold,bright and mainly dry Christmas day across the UK,although still with the chance of some wintry showers around coastal counties exposed to the Northerly/Northwesterly breeze.

 

Apologies to anybody reading the thread for the first time as i have accidentally erased all the charts from previous days thanks to an over-enthusiastic purge on deleting attachments.

 

Still,never mind,its Christmas....

[Cloud 10]

Santa comes tomorrow....... :smiliz19:

 

 

 

 

 

A cold,bright and mainly dry day across  much of the UK,with a chilly Northwesterly breeze,but there will be some wintry showers around in coastal areas exposed to the wind,and perhaps coming a bit further inland in Northwest England.

 

 

Merry Christmas to everyone and a happy (snowy ) new year.