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Skullzrulerz

Possible storm/wind event - 9th December onwards

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:bomb:  Well thought I would pop in to say hello for those peeps that know me... 

 

Thursday night into Friday looking wild... 

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Not mine, But off the Butt of Lewis.

 

10488072_10202414966810283_1317174282810

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:bomb:  Well thought I would pop in to say hello for those peeps that know me... 

 

Thursday night into Friday looking wild... 

Hello Lukey hope you are well.  How is this going to affect us in the South East.  Sorry for ignorance but only just started following this today. 

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Hi @ all

I hear talk of bombogenesis :bomb:

 

Theres no balls like snowballs wrote:

 

Ferocious jet stream N.Atlantic. Developing wave mid Atlantic. Will cross central UK Thu night. Gales S. Snow N.Eng.

post-115-0-65458700-1418215551_thumb.png 

post-115-0-67811300-1418215641_thumb.png

 

very interesting second chart, cheers for posting :good:

Note the back bent occlusion, one of the signatures of a Keyser-Shapiro type cyclone..... somebody was asking about the possibility of a Sting Jet event...

We shall have to watch the IR Satpic closely for an obvious  dry intrusion then.

 

regards

 

Ralph

 

Edit: @ Luke: Nice to see you in the forum again mate!

 

Edited by Generalelectrix

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Well there is nothing wild about the GFS

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

post-12275-0-34701400-1418227208_thumb.p

post-12275-0-38333500-1418227215_thumb.p

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Top Wind Speeds So Far Today

 

83mph Cairn Gorm Summit

67mph Bealach Na Ba

66mph Aonach Mor

64mph Cairnwell

62mph Great Dun Fell 2

 

Top Gusts So Far

 

106mph Cairn Gorm Summit

106mph Bealach Na Ba

99mph Aonach Mor

95mph Cairnwell

 

The winds are expected to stay strong for the rest of today and tonight start dropping in speed but still staying strong.

 

Satellite image taken today,

 

post-6686-0-58727800-1418228491_thumb.pn

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I hate play Daddy here but references to "wild" weather does make me think that some in here are heading for a disappointment once again. The above GFS output is suggesting that this will be a normal autumnal windstorm at the moment. Having read a comment about the "St.Jude disappointment" (two big trees down and a power cut in my village thank you very much) is it too much to ask that we stick to the models and what they are telling us instead letting the media hype get our hopes up.

 

This is Britain, extreme weather is rare but variety is the norm. I'm sure the Mods don't want to spend Friday afternoon picking up everyone's toys.

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Wind gusts have really picked up again in the past 20 minutes. 

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Wise words Wiven. I am keeping an eye on this as throughout today Met Office raw data has been slightly increasing gusts down here on coast. Current max gust is 63mph but we do get some shelter from the Downs. My advice to everyone keep an eye on this so as to be aware but still time for changes.

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What horrendous weather. I have just arrived home and I am absolutely soaked to the bone, and my wheely bin just took off again.

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What horrendous weather. I have just arrived home and I am absolutely soaked to the bone, and my wheely bin just took off again.

 

It's not pleasant today, is it! Traffic looks horrendous tonight. 

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MetO 1500z analysis has a 955mb low just north of the Faroe Islands, with the 1004mb line across N Ireland and N England, that's some tight pressure gradient.

 

Pretty impressive lightning strike rate across Scotland over the last 24hrs from the heavy wintry showers, particularly northern and western Scotland, but also through the central belt. Sort of rates you see from summer storms, rarely in December.

 

post-1052-0-42964700-1418230193_thumb.pn

Edited by Nick F
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Hi @ all

I hear talk of bombogenesis :bomb:

 

Theres no balls like snowballs wrote:

 

Ferocious jet stream N.Atlantic. Developing wave mid Atlantic. Will cross central UK Thu night. Gales S. Snow N.Eng.

post-115-0-65458700-1418215551_thumb.png 

post-115-0-67811300-1418215641_thumb.png

 

very interesting second chart, cheers for posting :good:

Note the back bent occlusion, one of the signatures of a Keyser-Shapiro type cyclone..... somebody was asking about the possibility of a Sting Jet event...

We shall have to watch the IR Satpic closely for an obvious  dry intrusion then.

 

regards

 

Ralph

 

Edit: @ Luke: Nice to see you in the forum again mate!

 

Don't want to see another one of those sting jet things, 87 was more than enough.

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The GFS 12Z is a slight upgrade in terms of a wider area seeing the stronger gusts.

It deepens slightly further south as well.

06Z:

post-15177-0-83971900-1418230276_thumb.ppost-15177-0-51248000-1418230285_thumb.ppost-15177-0-39468700-1418230225_thumb.ppost-15177-0-59563800-1418230237_thumb.p

12Z:

post-15177-0-07030700-1418230185_thumb.ppost-15177-0-09467300-1418230195_thumb.ppost-15177-0-29075900-1418230296_thumb.ppost-15177-0-86470800-1418230304_thumb.p

The GFS-P is a slight upgrade too. I'm not touting this as anything other than a deep and strong wave but it does need to be highlighted that it may potentially cause minor disruption.

Edited by Mapantz

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It seems that a 63ft wave was detected yesterday evening in the Atlantic.

attachicon.gifB4gk5YfCAAACqtc.png large.png

 

That's not a million miles away from where we measured an 86 foot wave many moons ago. Do i hear the violins playing.......................

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I still maintain that the system tomorrow night is going to be a lot more interesting than people on here think.

 

EC sticking to it's guns and GFS now showing the potential.

Feel 80mph gusts as it exits the east coast are increasingly possible, this is at the high end of the scale, but 50-60mph gusts hitting the populated southeast England region is quite significant and I feel there is scope to push this to 65-70mph inland.

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Not sure If I've got this totally right, but if you flick through the GFS you'll see where where our secondary low comes from out in the Atlantic 

 

Anyway, If this is right, the wave is slightly further north and 3mb deeper than the GFS had forecast for this time

 

I've backtracked the GFS and surface charts, and this wave does seem to be our low for Friday

 

low2_zpsf25e8db2.png

 

low_zps3243d3c9.png

 

Correct me if I'm wrong anyone :) Still learning here!

 

Forgot to mention both images are from 1800 hours

Edited by Essex Easterly.

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