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Skullzrulerz

Possible storm/wind event - 9th December onwards

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I still maintain that the system tomorrow night is going to be a lot more interesting than people on here think.

 

EC sticking to it's guns and GFS now showing the potential.

Feel 80mph gusts as it exits the east coast are increasingly possible, this is at the high end of the scale, but 50-60mph gusts hitting the populated southeast England region is quite significant and I feel there is scope to push this to 65-70mph inland.

Probably more like 50 mph, with 60ish on the coasts. The highest gust of the storm today was only about 85mph. We were expecting a lot more up here as the UKMO often underestimate wind strength in Shetland.

As there is uncertainty about this feature, then there may be some suprises...

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Hi, it is most probably going to boil down to a nowcast event in the end, Lets closely check out  the coming model runs and take it from there, see how things pan out, Vivensworld wrote a post pointing in a such direction. Too much can change at short notice before the anticipated event, we have witnessed this so often now. Things will get interesting as of tomorrow noon or so (model wise)

 

Regards

 

Ralph

 

@ Alexisj9: There have been a couple of Sting jet events since 1987, the event needent be termed as apocalyptical, it is just an area where even stronger winds get mixed down to the surface from the jet at high altitude and should be taken into account..

Edited by Generalelectrix

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Probably more like 50 mph, with 60ish on the coasts. The highest gust of the storm today was only about 85mph. We were expecting a lot more up here as the UKMO often underestimate wind strength in Shetland.

As there is uncertainty about this feature, then there may be some suprises...

The only uncertainty is the snowfall further north. The gales/severe gales are a given on the coasts, but as I've mentioned a few times, there is a good consensus with the models now.

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Ps: FAX charts are not hinting toward a back-bent occlusion, but two seperate warm and cold fronts, so a sting jet is unlikely. It does show signs of a back-bent occlusion as it heads to the near continent but as it's not a fully developed low, I'm not sure of an intrusion of dry air.

Worth watching satellite imagery close to, and during the event to see the signs.

Edited by Mapantz

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Not sure If I've got this totally right, but if you flick through the GFS you'll see where where our secondary low comes from out in the Atlantic 

 

Anyway, If this is right, the wave is slightly further north and 3mb deeper than the GFS had forecast for this time

 

I've backtracked the GFS and surface charts, and this wave does seem to be our low for Friday

 

low2_zpsf25e8db2.png

 

low_zps3243d3c9.png

 

Correct me if I'm wrong anyone :) Still learning here!

 

Forgot to mention both images are from 1800 hours

 

I don't think that is correct. At 18z on Thursday the ECM has the low forming about 100 miles SW of Ireland. By 06z Friday over Yorkshire

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Thanks for the correction, do you have a link? :)

 

Sorry it's paywalled. But you can see how the GFS upgrade is handling it. The low is forming in much the same place.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

post-12275-0-12346200-1418242698_thumb.p

post-12275-0-40522600-1418242707_thumb.p

post-12275-0-24386200-1418242718_thumb.p

Edited by knocker

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I don't think that is correct. At 18z on Thursday the ECM has the low forming about 100 miles SW of Ireland. By 06z Friday over Yorkshire

 

sorry knocker I think if you look at the Met Exeter or Met Northwood analysis you can see the centre much as Essesx Easterly suggested, so thanks ES I reckon you are correct. Above all do not be afraid to post, ask questions, someone will reply and try to help.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t24

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sorry knocker I think if you look at the Met Exeter or Met Northwood analysis you can see the centre much as Essesx Easterly suggested, so thanks ES I reckon you are correct. Above all do not be afraid to post, ask questions, someone will reply and try to help.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t24

 

Quite correct John. My apologies ES. Teach me not to look at the full Atlantic. As a matter of interest what's the driving force behind it's track? Does it latch on to the jet.?

 

post-12275-0-62938900-1418244983_thumb.p

post-12275-0-42861000-1418244997_thumb.p

Edited by knocker

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This system on Friday has potential to draw down some very strong winds from aloft.

 

A swathe of intense 850hPa winds cross the south of the UK.

 

Will be interesting to see how the 18z plays it.

 

Rtavn3612.gif

 

Rtavn4212.gif

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Latest from the 18z GFS and temps from the P.

Charts weatherbell

 

post-12275-0-71558600-1418250866_thumb.p

post-12275-0-30453700-1418250881_thumb.p

post-12275-0-99234500-1418250882_thumb.p

post-12275-0-13873500-1418251117_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
  • Like 1

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Had some very heavy wintry showers tonight certainly a stormy night again lots of surface water about on the roads. Hazardous with the gusty winds

Edited by Love Snow

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Winds here been slightly lower predicted max 39 gusts.  Odd burst strong winds then calming.

 

I am rather worried there chance storm surge east coast next week looking dodgy with very strong winds Thursday/friday.   Though got a lot time to shift.

 

14121918_1018.gif

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@ Mapantz: Thx for info, was it this chart you meant?: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif

In this case it shifts to Denmark, and thats why I will wait till lunchtime tomorrow, draw end conclusion then :)

Cheers

Ralph

Yep. If you run on to 36hrs (from time of this post) you'll see it becomes occluded after it exits the UK.

It seems like the parent low at 977mb would probably cancel out an injection of cold & dry air in to it, for a sting jet to occur. Suffice to say, I only have a small scope of knowledge on that, but I guess there is potential?!

Like you, I'll wait until tomorrow to see the updated charts. :good:

Again, I stress, the longevity (being relatively short) of this wave across the south coast is to be seen as a plus point because it continues to deepen throughout, so the south east could see some nasty conditions. It's good that the worst of those conditions will likely to be during sleeping hours to be honest.

Edited by Mapantz
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Yep. If you run on to 36hrs (from time of this post) you'll see it becomes occluded after it exits the UK.

It seems like the parent low at 977mb would probably cancel out an injection of cold & dry air in to it, for a sting jet to occur. Suffice to say, I only have a small scope of knowledge on that, but I guess there is potential?!

Like you, I'll wait until tomorrow to see the updated charts. :good:

Again, I stress, the longevity (being relatively short) of this wave across the south coast is to be seen as a plus point because it continues to deepen throughout, so the south east could see some nasty conditions. It's good that the worst of those conditions will likely to be during sleeping hours to be honest.

Yep it's a plus that it's coming through at night, I just hope it's cleared before the kids go to school, it should be unless it goes through slower than thought for some reason.

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The METO fx. Don't blink.

post-12275-0-08199500-1418295272_thumb.g

post-12275-0-57939000-1418295278_thumb.g

Edited by knocker

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