Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Skullzrulerz

Possible storm/wind event - 9th December onwards

Recommended Posts

Hello everyone and welcome!

 

As we go head first into the depths of the start of this winter there seems to be a storm on the semi-reliable (or whatever you want to call it) time-frame.

 

At the moment the strongest winds looks like to hit Scotland and some of the western coasts of England. (According to the gfs 12z run)

 

ukgust.png

 

This is 8 days out through so however because its not in the reliable time frame just yet major changes are expected at the moment becuase i think we know what models like to do.

 

For extreme fans this might be a good storm to check out (if it happens)

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Winds looking very strong, severe gales likely, especially down the west of Scotland and through the Irish Sea.

 

post-21143-0-97725000-1417542877_thumb.ppost-21143-0-50224100-1417542878_thumb.p

 

The Central Belt also looks to get a fair blow, bridges will definitely be restricted.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lets hope the ECM doesn't come off.

 

ECU1-168.GIF?02-0

 

Spawns a nasty secondary low off the original and also a tad further south.

Edited by SN0WM4N

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sling shot secondary depressions do have a habit of being very intense , certainly can do without it on the run up to Christmas !....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last thing we need TBH, hope it does not cause the chaos it could.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last thing we need TBH, hope it does not cause the chaos it could.

At this precise time Scotland and NI will bear the brunt of the very strong winds. Not the most populated areas, therefore I doubt this will get much media coverage, let's say if this was down sarf the news channels would be all over it...we've not had such potent LP systems since last winter? :bomb:

Regardless of the above what the ECM shows could pose a danger to life...flying debris, fallen trees.

So close attention in the upcoming days lets hope it downgrades...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A deep depression could be a good thing as could open the gates for a cold incursion albeit a maritime one ...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ECM Global Surface at 18z is still running with low with gusts of 70kts in western Ireland but there is so much discrepancy between models it's really just a matter of a watching brief at the moment.

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ECM Global Surface at 18z is still running with low with gusts of 70kts in western Ireland but there is so much discrepancy between models it's really just a matter of a watching brief at the moment.

I'm guessing you mean 18z GFs? Anyway looks like a nasty low moving in next week could be quite troublesome! Gusts of 70-80mph currently showing with 50-60mpb further south. We await coming runs to see what they say as we getcloser.

A deep depression could be a good thing as could open the gates for a cold incursion albeit a maritime one ...

Absoutely, though alternatively could see a wave of depressions move this way similar to last winter, this looks the less likely option given output at minute as Explosive Cyclogenisis doesnt (currently) look as bad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A deep depression could be a good thing as could open the gates for a cold incursion albeit a maritime one ...

Seem to recall similar postings last year.  No one needs any reminders as to what subsequently transpired. If this season turns out anything like the previous "winter", I for one will fast come round to looking upon the winter season with a sense of loathing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seem to recall similar postings last year.  No one needs any reminders as to what subsequently transpired. If this season turns out anything like the previous "winter", I for one will fast come round to looking upon the winter season with a sense of loathing.

Does not have a December 2013 look just yet, more a typical Winter set up in the offing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Any weather is dangerous, I, for one,  love a good storm!  Is it me or does this storm seem to be forecast slightly further south on this morning GFS run?  And seems to be upgrading too, this could be a noteable storm for sure.


Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hopefully this storm will do one and downgrade, really dont want repeats of last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd take a storm!

Ian F did mention a few weeks back that a few 'not your average lows' were showing up on models that we don't get to see, this may well be one of those! It's worth watching for sure but it comes down to whether the developing low can hitch a ride and interact with the jet at the right time. Cyclogenesis over the UK, before it makes it ashore, or whether it's after it exits (assuming it is still showing up over the next two to four days)

Something that is interesting (on the GFS for example) - the duration of strong winds is quite remarkable. It'll certainly change though, let's see how it pans out?!

Edited by Mapantz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not sure about hitching a ride as this morning's ECM had it forming at the left exit. Hopefully this won't happen quite like this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hopefully this storm will do one and downgrade, really dont want repeats of last year.

 

I'd actually say that last year was notable for the frequency of moderately strong winter storms, rather than the strength of individual ones (except maybe the one that caused the Met Office red alert for North Wales in February)

 

Certainly there was no wind event in my locality that would have given a statistical recurrence, in terms of strength, of more than a one in five to one in ten year return.

 

I definitely want this to fizzle, as although I like experiencing the feeling of the power of nature, it is more than tempered by the death and destruction that is caused. In my youth I didn't really worry about this last bit, but I've changed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd actually say that last year was notable for the frequency of moderately strong winter storms, rather than the strength of individual ones (except maybe the one that caused the Met Office red alert for North Wales in February)

 

Certainly there was no wind event in my locality that would have given a statistical recurrence, in terms of strength, of more than a one in five to one in ten year return.

 

I definitely want this to fizzle, as although I like experiencing the feeling of the power of nature, it is more than tempered by the death and destruction that is caused. In my youth I didn't really worry about this last bit, but I've changed.

 

 

Well a couple of those storms hit the southwest with force, a couple of the storms were certainly more powerful than anything I can remember since the Burns Day Storm.

 

Snow causes death and destruction, so does extreme heat....are you a fan of just grey days lol?!

 

I certainly don't want anyone to be hurt so if they put appropriate warnings out hopefully people will listen be careful.

Edited by TwisterGirl81

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well a couple of those storms hit the southwest with force, a couple of the storms were certainly more powerful than anything I can remember since the Burns Day Storm.

 

Snow causes death and destruction, so does extreme heat....are you a fan of just grey days lol?!

 

I certainly don't want anyone to be hurt so if they put appropriate warnings out hopefully people will listen be careful.

 

Due to weather forecasts, I deliberately took a short notice holiday and went to the SW Coast for a week (firstly to Bude, when there was a severe flood warning and subsequent local tidal flooding and then popped across to Fowey, which had flooding as well and my accommodation had a long lasting power cut) so experienced the worst of your storms last year...

 

Constant grey days (which my area has now been suffering all week) are the most depressing of weather types IMHO.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd actually say that last year was notable for the frequency of moderately strong winter storms, rather than the strength of individual ones (except maybe the one that caused the Met Office red alert for North Wales in February)

 

Certainly there was no wind event in my locality that would have given a statistical recurrence, in terms of strength, of more than a one in five to one in ten year return.

 

I definitely want this to fizzle, as although I like experiencing the feeling of the power of nature, it is more than tempered by the death and destruction that is caused. In my youth I didn't really worry about this last bit, but I've changed.

 

That Feb storm was a humdinger here. Some pretty widespread structural damage. Best storm in years from an active weather enthusiast's POV.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That Feb storm was a humdinger here. Some pretty widespread structural damage. Best storm in years from an active weather enthusiast's POV.

 

Yes, IIRC it spread from North Wales and into the North of England. There is something exciting about being out and experiencing the force and noise of such events. We had about half an hour of very strong winds from the St Jude's storm earlier in the season (the worst winds of the season in my locality). I deliberately left my house early that morning, as I was waiting for the sound of a falling tile etc. Thankfully I returned home to no structural damage, blown down fences or any such other p.i.t.a.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well a couple of those storms hit the southwest with force, a couple of the storms were certainly more powerful than anything I can remember since the Burns Day Storm.

 

Snow causes death and destruction, so does extreme heat....are you a fan of just grey days lol?!

 

I certainly don't want anyone to be hurt so if they put appropriate warnings out hopefully people will listen be careful.

Cold snowy winters cause more deaths than storms, this is a fact  there was a news report recently that showed thousands of lives were saved last year due to the mildness , mainly the elderly off course 

finally some weather to look forward to

Bring the storms on :good:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cold snowy winters cause more deaths than storms, this is a fact there was a news report recently that showed thousands of lives were saved last year due to the mildness , mainly the elderly off course

Bring the storms on :good:

Storms are fleeting though. For single weather events I'm pretty sure gales have claimed more lives than say individual snowfall events.

47 died in the Burns 'Day storm, 20 odd in the January 1976 storm.

Edited by Weather-history

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Storms are fleeting though. For single weather events I'm pretty sure gales have claimed more lives than say individual snowfall events.

47 died in the Burns 'Day storm, 20 odd in the January 1976 storm.

 

Yes, in my locality there have been what I'd classify as three major windstorms in my life; January 1976, October 1987 and January 1990.

 

I was a young child in '76, but remember it well - it struck during the first part of the night. In my locality I'd guess that '76 and '87 had similar strength winds, which were probably marginally higher that the Burns Day Storm. The '76 storm had very high wind gusts slightly further north of my locality - 100mph in Norwich, I think 105mph at a recording station in Cambridgeshire (inland and low lying) and 114mph in Middlesbrough. I can remember reading a local newspaper cutting many years ago, which suggested that winds were thought to have gusted to 110mph on the North Norfolk coast too.

 

It'd be pretty scary to have a forecast with those sort of windspeeds mentioned in this area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking interesting too early to get excited about. Plenty of upgrades and downgrades to come yet. Will get excited on Monday evening if it's still there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...