Winter 2014-15 thread

[Thunderbolt_]

I think this winter will turn into one of those winters that are brilliant for some and very poor for others, a bit like how summer 2010 is viewed. For me it's not been too bad - a couple of ice days, snow, frosts, fog and some lengthy settled spells.

[SMU]

All-

 

Have a good one. Im signing off for the year- Winters over.

 

Have a good year everyone.

 

No need to reply.

 

Cheers

S

[chionomaniac]

Definitely due 1 more cold spell now........

[johnholmes]

Since I have been watching the weather (from mid 70s) I have not had a single snowless winter. Last year was one of the two closest as I only saw a few flakes in February and this year counts as poorest as well with three snow events producing a maximum depth of 5mm. There have been several winters that have been snowless until April, the classic being 1980/1 when I had to wait until something like 26th April and then I got what was probably my second best ever snow event. The best was Jan 82 when I got about 14 inches.

 

Welcome to Net Wx and the site offers, hope you enjoy it.

good to hear about your snow but it means nowt to me as you have not said where you live-may we have that in your avatar please?

[karyo]

Manchester Winter Index

1978-79: 262

2009-10: 197

1985-86: 159

1981-82: 149

1976-77: 141

1984-85: 140

1995-96: 135

1990-91: 126

2010-11: 119

2008-09: 105

2012-13: 102

1986-87: 100

1977-78: 90

1989-81: 90

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82

1993-94: 78

2000-01: 77

1996-97: 72

2014-15: 69 (up to 3rd February)

1979-80: 66

2005-06: 59

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

1994-95: 45

2002-03: 44

1992-93: 43

1975-76: 41

1991-92: 40

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1973-74: 30

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

1997-98: 25

2006-07: 21

1988-89: 20

2013-14: 7

Very interesting to see the comparison of different years.

I see that 2013/14 is at the bottom of the list but for me 1997/8 was by far worse as it was milder and drier. It actually felt like spring.

[Thunderbolt_]

I fail to understand why people always moan at high pressure systems. Yes they may be meteorologically boring, but they can actually bring some pretty useable weather with them. There's nothing useable with damaging winds and heavy rain lashing against the window. I'm personallly really looking foward to this February and it's high pressure-fest.

 

Roll on!

[summer blizzard]

Very interesting to see the comparison of different years.

I see that 2013/14 is at the bottom of the list but for me 1997/8 was by far worse as it was milder and drier. It actually felt like spring.

 

Winter 2014 was offensive in that not once did we get lying snow. I mean that happens in London or Bristol but we're in the north!!!!

 

This winter has been average. 3 snow spells, 1 front, 1 snowfall in the 5-10cm range. Could be better on that front but meh..

 

I fail to understand why people always moan at high pressure systems. Yes they may be meteorologically boring, but they can actually bring some pretty useable weather with them. There's nothing useable with damaging winds and heavy rain lashing against the window. I'm personallly really looking foward to this February and it's high pressure-fest.

 

Roll on!

 

I agree. If you can get the sun out then it's brilliant. 

[Daniel*]

I refuse to think so

Seasons are meddled in recent years

I see legroom for a very cold final third Feb into early March

It will not take much for this winter to go from average/poor > good

I can just feel it - this winter is not going off on a hurry

There tends to be a balance

[Peter H]

Looks like I'm going to have an opportunity to cut the grass sometime this week. There's been slight growth throughout the winter, and I think that really shows how mild overall it's been.

A couple of skiffs of snow, but nothing to write home about, so in that respect it was slightly better than last year.

I think this is the earliest I've ever needed to cut the grass in this house, and I've lived here now nearly 20 years.

Charts over the next couple of weeks seem pretty benign so I can't see any more prospects of snow this winter.

[Snowshine]

I refuse to think so

Seasons are meddled in recent years

I see legroom for a very cold final third Feb into early March

It will not take much for this winter to go from average/poor > good

I can just feel it - this winter is not going off on a hurry

There tends to be a balance

I really hope so.

[Bristawl Si]

We've had one week of cold weather down here and that is the past week.

No snow, bar a 10 minute shower last Thursday evening.

A v average winter here (imby), although i'd add that Bristol usually gets a couple of snow lying days even in an average Winter.

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index

1978-79: 262

2009-10: 197

1985-86: 159

1981-82: 149

1976-77: 141

1984-85: 140

1995-96: 135

1990-91: 126

2010-11: 119

2008-09: 105

2012-13: 102

1986-87: 100

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82

1993-94: 78

2000-01: 77

2014-15: 73 (up to 7th February)

1996-97: 72

1979-80: 66

2005-06: 59

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

1994-95: 45

2002-03: 44

1992-93: 43

1975-76: 41

1991-92: 40

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1973-74: 30

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

1997-98: 25

2006-07: 21

1988-89: 20

2013-14: 7

It is notable how this winter has been described as "poor" is infact comfortably above those poor winters from late 80s to mid 2000s.

Considering the lack of northerly blocking, it has to be said that to get a score like this is an indication that we must have squeezed a fair bit of wintry juice out of the synoptics we were given.

Edited February 8, 2015 by Weather-history

[Snowyowl9]

I would swap 1996/97 with 2000/01 here on that list on that for here.

Need to have a closer look to check 2000/01.

I`ve just done mini winter index of those 3 years.

1996-97:100 and that's not including November which has 25 alone.

2001-02:77

2014-15:76

Lack of early frosts this winter hasn`t helped here.

Edited February 8, 2015 by Snowyowl9

[johnholmes]

Manchester Winter Index

1978-79: 262

2009-10: 197

1985-86: 159

1981-82: 149

1976-77: 141

1984-85: 140

1995-96: 135

1990-91: 126

2010-11: 119

2008-09: 105

2012-13: 102

1986-87: 100

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

1982-83: 85

1983-84: 82

1993-94: 78

2000-01: 77

2014-15: 73 (up to 7th February)

1996-97: 72

1979-80: 66

2005-06: 59

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

1994-95: 45

2002-03: 44

1992-93: 43

1975-76: 41

1991-92: 40

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1973-74: 30

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

1997-98: 25

2006-07: 21

1988-89: 20

2013-14: 7

It is notable how this winter has been described as "poor" is infact comfortably above those poor winters from late 80s to mid 2000s.

Considering the lack of northerly blocking, it has to be said that to get a score like this is an indication that we must have squeezed a fair bit of wintry juice out of the synoptics we were given.

 

I would agree with your comment WH, for here it is certainly a good deal better than any long term average using your figures. This winter is currently 5th out of 18 winters.

[Gustywind]

Think it's been a better winter the further north you've been, places like Yorkshire seem to have done pretty well.

Away from high ground however and it's been a pretty poor winter from the Midlands South, with no sign of any late winter consolation prizes either.

[feb1991blizzard]

The Vortex either over the pole or Greenland right the way out to 384 right the way from the top of the strat to the trop, this winter has been bo||ox. see you all next year, unless a really freak event happens in late March or April like 2013 or 1981.

[Summer of 95]

I'm surprised it ranks above some of those winters, I wouldn't rate it any higher than 1994-5 (which actually had a couple of ice days before Christmas). Certainly nowhere near 1996-7 which had 10 days of snow cover around New Year or 2000-1 which hit -10 in late December.

That index really does show how awful 2013-14 was though, not even half as good as 1988-9!

[nick sussex]

Compared to last winter this one has been far better although all the interest has really come in the last week. Snowfall wise the best winter since 2011/2012, again though that winter had all the interest in early February with that very cold two week spell although with less snow.

 

The last week has seen several snowfalls, the best coming overnight Monday into Tuesday with 12 cms falling, then throughout the week several further coverings although amounts were small.

 

Its not been the coldest temperature wise, a few days remained below freezing, generally though temps have edged above freezing, coldest nightime was -6c.

 

The Pyrenees though have done great with some stunning skiing conditions once the resorts opened up, they were closed for 3 days in this part of the Pyrenees because of the high avalanche risk.

[Norrance]

Mmh family home in Highland Perthshire has had snow lying for 8 days in December, 18 in January and 8 so far in February. However these stats do hide the fact that there have been few decent snow events and only one significant snowfall, much of which was washed away the next night. There have been numerous frosts but again no severe ones below -10C. To put this up from an average Winter to a good one it needs one more significant snow event.

Here near the coast we have had a few days with lying snow but never over a few cms and a lot of frosts. Snow piles are still in car parks from mid January as we missed the more recent events. Again we need one good event to bring it up to par, preferably from the East (but this not looking likely any time soon).

[johnholmes]

I'm surprised it ranks above some of those winters, I wouldn't rate it any higher than 1994-5 (which actually had a couple of ice days before Christmas). Certainly nowhere near 1996-7 which had 10 days of snow cover around New Year or 2000-1 which hit -10 in late December.

That index really does show how awful 2013-14 was though, not even half as good as 1988-9!

 

Our differing figures simply show how variable the weather is in different parts of the country even if geographically they look quite close.

[Weather-history]

I'm surprised it ranks above some of those winters, I wouldn't rate it any higher than 1994-5 (which actually had a couple of ice days before Christmas). Certainly nowhere near 1996-7 which had 10 days of snow cover around New Year or 2000-1 which hit -10 in late December.

That index really does show how awful 2013-14 was though, not even half as good as 1988-9!

As regards to 1996-97, how wintry was February 1997? It wasn't, it was very mild and stormy so effectively pulled down any winter index value regardless of location.

[Snowyowl9]

There was a massively long gap between the first half January 1997 and may 1997 for memorable snow events.

[damianslaw]

As regards to 1996-97, how wintry was February 1997? It wasn't, it was very mild and stormy so effectively pulled down any winter index value regardless of location.

 

 

Winter 96/97 was very much one of two halves. The first half being predominantly cold following on from a chilly November. It had a notably cold latter part to December and first 10 days of Jan. Thereafter in the main it was predominantly mild with a couple of shortlived colder interludes in late Jan and a very mild wet Feb with no snow to speak of and barely any frost. It was a similar winter to 10/11 in this respect, albeit not with the depth of cold or snow amounts December 10 produced.

 

I think of the 95-97 period a bit like the 09-11 period, an ineffectual atlantic and airstreams from the north and east.

[Don]

Winter 96/97 was very much one of two halves. The first half being predominantly cold following on from a chilly November. It had a notably cold latter part to December and first 10 days of Jan. Thereafter in the main it was predominantly mild with a couple of shortlived colder interludes in late Jan and a very mild wet Feb with no snow to speak of and barely any frost. It was a similar winter to 10/11 in this respect, albeit not with the depth of cold or snow amounts December 10 produced.

 

I think of the 95-97 period a bit like the 09-11 period, an ineffectual atlantic and airstreams from the north and east.

 

Yes, the 95-97 period was a bit like the 09-11 period, although like you say, 09-11 was colder and I did far better for snow.  As I've mentioned before I missed out on most of the snow events during Winter's 95/96 and 96/97.

Edited February 8, 2015 by Don

[Dunstable Snow]

It is interesting to read the different perspectives on this winter so far and where it sits against others. It certainly seems that the further north you are, especially with elevation, the more palatable this winter has been.

 

I have a very simple view on whether a winter has been a good one or not for my location sat about 550 ft up in the Chiltern hills. The question I ask myself is this ' Has the winter produced weather that is very highly unlikely to be repeated in any other season ? This, in my view, means the following :-

A reasonable number of days ( say minimum 8 of which the snow element to be minimum 4) across the 90 day period of the following weather experiences :-

1) Falling snow that accumulates and then has at least 1 day without any thaw in the shade.

2) A frost that lasts all day in the shade and starts to reform as soon as the sun sets.

Although I have experienced a number of days with snow falling and several frosts the sum total for this season is currently 0. Looking at the current charts it seems highly unlikely that the score will get to 1 within the next 10 days and that will leave c 10 days of winter left ! I therefore suspect that I will be assessing this winter as very poor overall.

 

I do appreciate that this winter has been better than what was delivered for the 90 day period from 1st December 2013- 28 February 2014 but quite why anyone would want to compare this winter against that period and use it as a benchmark is beyond me. I can't even bring myself to call it a winter season as to my mind we had an extended autumn that then moved uninterrupted into Spring.

 

No doubt there will be a bit of a post mortem once winter is over. I have to say however that I will be hard pushed to read a better summary of the frustrations surrounding this years non delivery than that posted by Matt Hugo on the Strat thread yesterday. If you have not read it then I suggtest that you take the time to do so. It sums up my views/feelings entirely.

 

I do admire anyone who has taken the time to put together a seasonal winter forecast. So much work goes into so many of them and they all make a lot of sense. It seems to me that there are just so many variables and it seems as though only one needs to work against us for the whole blxxdy cold potential to dissapear and the dial to swing towards mild or cool rather than deep cold. I have to say that when we got to the Christmas period and there was no real sign of a strong and deep cold pool building to our East across Western Russia, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe I was starting to worry. If you look back at a long of the historic cold winters the vast majority had this characteristic in place. The hype back in the late Autumn suggested that this would happen and I was certainly hoping that a strong cold block would establish in aforementioned areas and start to influence Western Europe. It was not to be.... I will be looking for the same characteristics in early winter next year, and again if they do not materialise I will start to worry. Already it seems that the QBO will be West based next year and that will be expected to work against us. Whatever the signals I will be back for another season and will thoroughly enjoy the reading and learning experience.

 

I do hope we have some very late winter and early Spring cold to send us all into the spring and summer period in better spirits.