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Winter 2014-15 thread


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Posted
  • Location: Nottingham, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and sunny
  • Location: Nottingham, UK

Currently snowing in Northumberland, big flakes are coming down, which were not forecast.

Edit, now there's thunders ow..something I've not witnessed before.

Edited by Ninman
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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

I think we might be seeing the beginnings of the type of synoptics that brought us last winters train of storms? The NOAA appear keen on seeing the US under similar conditions to last winter ( cold centre/east coast warm west coast/Alaska ) Should we again see Arctic cold spilling into the Atlantic then we should expect to see this leading to depression after depression heading our way? Maybe we'll get lucky and the rain will be much further north and we'll just get wind and mild conditions as they pass to our north?

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Posted
  • Location: Nottingham, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and sunny
  • Location: Nottingham, UK

I think we might be seeing the beginnings of the type of synoptics that brought us last winters train of storms? The NOAA appear keen on seeing the US under similar conditions to last winter ( cold centre/east coast warm west coast/Alaska ) Should we again see Arctic cold spilling into the Atlantic then we should expect to see this leading to depression after depression heading our way? Maybe we'll get lucky and the rain will be much further north and we'll just get wind and mild conditions as they pass to our north?

That would seem to tie in with many of the long range seasonal models and met office contingency planners update back in oct/nov that many on here were dismissing?

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

I think we might be seeing the beginnings of the type of synoptics that brought us last winters train of storms? The NOAA appear keen on seeing the US under similar conditions to last winter ( cold centre/east coast warm west coast/Alaska ) Should we again see Arctic cold spilling into the Atlantic then we should expect to see this leading to depression after depression heading our way? Maybe we'll get lucky and the rain will be much further north and we'll just get wind and mild conditions as they pass to our north?

 

A period of mobility looks likely now, though it wont be on the scale of last year. Zonal wind speeds and vortex energy are much reduced in comparison.

 

However it looks to me as though it might be a temporary situation. I have been rather unimpressed by the trop impact of this year's distressed vortex: I am unclear of the reasons why the siberian high has been so weak this year having had such a good start in terms of October snow cover... but its weakness one way or another has prevented height rises around the UK or Scandy from being able to ridge further to the NE, and at the same time we have lucked out on the split energy of the vortex with the majority moving to Canada/Greenland in the near term. But I'm sniffing a change: the vortex continues to be weakened, and forecasts suggest now that conditions are going to become more favourable for height rises on this side of the globe.

 

So I guess I'm agreeing with a week or so of mobile weather - rainfall totals like last year??? I doubt it... - but I dont see it lasting long.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Benson, Oxon, fell to -7.6C overnight making it the coldest night of the year in England so far

Another very cold night not far from Benson. I think -8c somewhere tonight

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Also mentioning my nearby observation station 'Benson' is in a frost hollow so quite often gets low readings. A chilly one though as -4.2c here just 6 miles North of Benson. 

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Another very cold night not far from Benson. I think -8c somewhere tonight

-8.4c here this morning coldest since April 2013.

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Posted
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim

Sorry to put a damper on all this, but what the hell happened to the "cold heated winter" Net weather were predicting at the end of November ????? :(

The next couple of weeks are looking decidedly mild, wet, and windy with little prospect of any prolonged cold or snow events. Apart from a couple of days of perpetual frost at the weekend, and a wee skiff of snow on the hills, this one is shaping up to be another snowless stinker.

Can't see the models changing drastically over the next couple of weeks. That takes us up to mid January and the half way stage of the winter.

Unless something happens suddenly at the end of January, I can't see anything much different forom last year, apart from the winds not being as strong.

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

Sorry to put a damper on all this, but what the hell happened to the "cold heated winter" Net weather were predicting at the end of November ????? :(

The next couple of weeks are looking decidedly mild, wet, and windy with little prospect of any prolonged cold or snow events. Apart from a couple of days of perpetual frost at the weekend, and a wee skiff of snow on the hills, this one is shaping up to be another snowless stinker.

Can't see the models changing drastically over the next couple of weeks. That takes us up to mid January and the half way stage of the winter.

Unless something happens suddenly at the end of January, I can't see anything much different forom last year, apart from the winds not being as strong.

 

Well what happened if i may say is that maybe the forecast for a 'cold heated winter' might of been wrong no offence to net's forecasters

 

Yeah the models are showing if a say a cool 'zonal' weather type at the moment and everyone seems to be upset and depressed.

 

Besides the mini cold spell we just had according to some people mid-jan may be the next cold spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington

Sorry to put a damper on all this, but what the hell happened to the "cold heated winter" Net weather were predicting at the end of November ????? :(

The next couple of weeks are looking decidedly mild, wet, and windy with little prospect of any prolonged cold or snow events. Apart from a couple of days of perpetual frost at the weekend, and a wee skiff of snow on the hills, this one is shaping up to be another snowless stinker.

Can't see the models changing drastically over the next couple of weeks. That takes us up to mid January and the half way stage of the winter.

Unless something happens suddenly at the end of January, I can't see anything much different forom last year, apart from the winds not being as strong.

Hi Peter 

 

I was just wondering where your LRF is? If you could direct me too it that would be great thanks.

 

The netweather forecast took a long time to prepare and a lot of work was put into it. So to come on and say what the hell has happened is disrespectful to say the least. Maybe next year you could spend weeks putting together a detailed forecast for us all to enjoy.....

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Sorry to put a damper on all this, but what the hell happened to the "cold heated winter" Net weather were predicting at the end of November ????? :(The next couple of weeks are looking decidedly mild, wet, and windy with little prospect of any prolonged cold or snow events. Apart from a couple of days of perpetual frost at the weekend, and a wee skiff of snow on the hills, this one is shaping up to be another snowless stinker.Can't see the models changing drastically over the next couple of weeks. That takes us up to mid January and the half way stage of the winter.Unless something happens suddenly at the end of January, I can't see anything much different forom last year, apart from the winds not being as strong.

The current output goes to the middle of winter time wise but given march's propensity to be cold and Decembers to be less so then maybe not really the middle of winter. Anyway, Exeter are unsure that the zonality will last till mid month (despite their forecast saying so). I'm surprised that some on here can't wait a few more weeks to pose the question you ask.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds

well here in Leeds the temperatures are up and the drizzle is back then the wind will get going again oh how I have missed it NOT !!!. This winter isn't as bad as last years constant wind and rain I couldn't live through another like that very depressing we have had a least snow and frost and less rain lately.I long for the very cold of a few years ago but looking ahead its not likely ,only up side is a lower heating bill but I like a winter to be just that ,I hate wet and windy weather !!.

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Posted
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day

I have to jump on the bandwagon and put my feelings out there shoot me down if you like..... Winter 14/15 is nothing like 13/14 the vortex has Bern displaced numerous times yes it comes back to the starting point bit to say it's the same as last year is chain reactrem. Last year here in the south I recorded 134 information warnings between 15th Dec and 31st Jan. The set up is not the same the pressure gradients and temps are not the same and us and Canada are as far as I am concerned not in the freezer. The fact is we either hunt snow or storms, anything in between won't suffice. Think back over the Winter last year had 3,or 4 notable storms eve Xmas 28th Dec then the valentines day storm. All more than what we have had do far this winter.

The experienced posters show time is on our hand. I for one am calm about the winter.

One final point mild not sure it will b all that mild and it has the propensity to get colder

End of my bible lol

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Posted
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
Winter 14/15 is nothing like 13/14

 

Not much better at this end so far. The winds aren't quite a strong, and the low pressure systems not as vigorous but that's about it. 2/3 days of frost and a couple of flakes of snow and that's been it. Hardly anything to write home about. Most of western Europe is also pretty mild so that's not a good sign either.

 

The charts for the next couple of weeks, up until the 13th January, are real stinkers. No hint of anything remotely coming from the east, northeast, or north. and a decidedly south westerly feel to things.

The BBC long range forecast has hinted at the slight possibility of something colder at the end of January, but I don't hold out much hope. Once the weather gets itself into this kind of rut it really is very difficult to shift.

 

Still, the winter of 1947 didn't start until the last week in January so you never know.


 

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Posted
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day

Peter 3 days frost is still better than last year. Actually saw sleet on 27th December. That has not been a single windstorm to report. I want snow or storms or frost just hate rain and doing nothing

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Posted
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim

Peter 3 days frost is still better than last year. Actually saw sleet on 27th December. That has not been a single windstorm to report. I want snow or storms or frost just hate rain and doing nothing

 

Well, we saw sleet last year as well so it's not much better Jimmy.

 

This winter has gone pear shaped now, in my opinion. Charts up until the 14th and showing nothing but a westerly/south westerly flow for the foreseeable future. So much for a cold hearted winter and a colder than average January(which we've not really had since 2010).

 

We were spoiled with a couple of good ones, notably 2009/10 and the exceptional December 2010 cold spell.

 

Now I fear we've reverted back to the dreaded "modern" snowless winter.

I could be wrong, and the Atlantic flow could slow down (at the moment it stretches well into Europe) but I'm not optimistic.

 

I've even given up looking at the BBC long range forecast now

 

 

 

Edited by Peter H
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

The 6z CFS run from 31st Dec 2014 shows you just how we COULD still have a below average Jan but this chance receding with every OP run from the reliable timeframe models.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I have also thought that the first half of Jan has been set in stone (barring a couple of EC EPS runs), has been set in stone in terms of maritime influences for a good few days now, you only have to look at the GEFS consistency in terms of the lack of wide ranging solutions on the spreads, it also seems very likely that we will get some snow at times for Northern areas (polar air injected on the western side of lows by the Jet digging south), although I don't think that is what floats many peoples boats further south, indeed it doesn't really float mine, the last bit of snow on the peaks went overnight although I still had lying snow yesterday morning even at my 600ft altitude, which was good considering we only had an inch anyway, typical that a few years ago I had to rush my decision to move from Salford (mate splitting with his missus) that I couldn't even consider altitude, at least he let me choose area though and a lot better than Salford after missing a pasting by 5 miles on 1st-2nd feb 2009!

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Posted
  • Location: Stockport
  • Location: Stockport

January is when the atlantic is most active, February onwards is when the atlantic quietens down and allows prevalent northerly blocking, i'm expecting a really cold mid February to mid March period.

I hope so, I love late winter cold with the longer days.

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Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl

Trouble is we thought that last year but it never did turn colder, even in March or April!

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Posted
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim

Tescos are still selling snow shovels.

 

I wonder what they know that the Met Office / BBC weather centre doesn't ?

 

Or maybe they've just been listening to James Madden's Exacta Weather nonsense.

Edited by Peter H
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Posted
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim

It's actually been so mild this winter my grass needs cut.

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