Winter 2014-15 thread

[MP-R]

It's been very average here so far this month, in fact after the last 2 days we're now 0.2C above the December average here. Bearing in mind it's going to be mild for most of next week, any cold spell beyond will just bring the monthly average back to 'average'. Not often we have just an average December these days.

[Hocus Pocus]

I keep getting a feeling that this winter will be one where no pattern dominates for any length of time ECM is still showing this out to day 10 with a bit of everything from mild spells to average to cooler

It's looking that way,  a sort of heinz 57 outlook.

[Don]

I believe some of the long range models have recently trended towards a colder final 3rd of Winter (after consistently showing mild conditions throughout) which would tie in with Cohen's latest blog with any SSW not likely until towards the end of January, possibly leading to a colder February. Whilst this is disappointing, particularly after the promising early background signals, a cold late Winter would be better than nothing and I still feel things are looking far more promising than they were this time last year.

I think for the next month or so any cold spells are likely to be short lived, but hopefully there will be some interest to at least keep the coldies semi happy!

As ever, time will tell, but I won't be throwing in the towel for another 5 or 6 weeks!

[Summer Sun]

Jamstec is going for below average temperatures for winter

 

 

Precipitation looks to be around average

 

 

The Beijing climate center is going for around normal temps for the January to March period

 

Average to slightly drier than average away from the far north of Scotland, ROI and NI

 

[Mark Neal.]

The Year Britain Froze is on More 4 currently, about the winter of 2010. 

[Richard2901]

An exceptionally poor start to winter. Ridiculously awful with barely even a frost. On top of what we endured last year this is intolerable.

 

To get to the winter solstice with just 16.2 hours of frost and nothing lower than -1.1C is unbelievably pathetic. Even by this stage last year there had been 62.4 hours of frost and a low of -2.0C. April 2013 managed 38.9 hours of frost in the first 13 days and a low of -2.7C which has not been beaten since 

 

Even a December as grim and gloomy as 2002 managed a three day frosty spell so will have accumulated more frost than this sorry affair. 1994 is the probably the last time there had been so little frost and no snow by this stage of winter

 

The longest any day has managed below freezing point is just 4.3 hours on 3rd December. Shocking considering that in the lighter half of the year, and in a spring with one of the highest mean minimums on record, there were 6.1 hours of frost on 26th March 2014 and a low of -1.8C.

[summer blizzard]

Yup. Despite feeling seasonal this December could well join 2002, 2006 and 2013 as a a snowless December. Only a little over two months until i want March sunshine and heat back (2012 really ruined me for other March's).

[cheeky_monkey]

An exceptionally poor start to winter. Ridiculously awful with barely even a frost. On top of what we endured last year this is intolerable.

 

To get to the winter solstice with just 16.2 hours of frost and nothing lower than -1.1C is unbelievably pathetic. Even by this stage last year there had been 62.4 hours of frost and a low of -2.0C. April 2013 managed 38.9 hours of frost in the first 13 days and a low of -2.7C which has not been beaten since 

 

Even a December as grim and gloomy as 2002 managed a three day frosty spell so will have accumulated more frost than this sorry affair. 1994 is the probably the last time there had been so little frost and no snow by this stage of winter

 

The longest any day has managed below freezing point is just 4.3 hours on 3rd December. Shocking considering that in the lighter half of the year, and in a spring with one of the highest mean minimums on record, there were 6.1 hours of frost on 26th March 2014 and a low of -1.8C.

everything is always awful and shockingly distgusting in your world no matter what season it is...there is a moaning thread you know elsewhere?

[picog]

Yup. Despite feeling seasonal this December could well join 2002, 2006 and 2013 as a a snowless December. Only a little over two months until i want March sunshine and heat back (2012 really ruined me for other March's).

We still have one third of December yet to come, and with some charts showing cold and snow, I wouldn't be writing it off as a snowless month yet!

[damianslaw]

Always believe the Christmas-new year period is a pivotal time in the year, setting trends and signals for the main core period of the winter ahead. Typically the northern hemisphere beds itself into its winter state around the end of December.

 

This year we have weaker polar vortex compared to last year, and there remain signs that it will weaken further through the winter which is par for the course despite putting up a fight at present. We have also had quite an amplified flow, with the jet meandering with swings from cold to mild, this theme is going to continue through the Christmas-new year period.

 

Looking ahead wouldn't be surprised to see January produce more of the same, but more marked swings in cold and milder weather, greater depths of cold in the second half, and as is traditional come February a more favourable base state will have developed for higher latitude blocking with the polar vortex retracting..

 

Just some thoughts.

[Thunderbolt_]

Quite an interesting video from Gavin Partridge looking at the post-Christmas period and into the start of January.

 

[Weather-history]

Yup. Despite feeling seasonal this December could well join 2002, 2006 and 2013 as a a snowless December. Only a little over two months until i want March sunshine and heat back (2012 really ruined me for other March's).

Last time I saw lying snow in December was 2011 and that was the last time I saw falling snow in December as well.

[Banbury]

Yup. Despite feeling seasonal this December could well join 2002, 2006 and 2013 as a a snowless December. Only a little over two months until i want March sunshine and heat back (2012 really ruined me for other March's).

And that isn't certain , bit of an odd post considering we are only 3 weeks into Winter

[Summer Sun]

BBC giving 2 scenarios for the low this weekend

 

1) low tracks west to east, potentially stormy & heavy rain with some disruption

 

2) moves south wards bringing cold air in bringing the risk of snow

 

After that next week they are going for a calmer chillier week with frosty mornings

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/30583805

[hillbilly]

This last week is bringing back all last years memories for me,maybe we are in for a repeat!

[Summer Sun]

BBC are now suggesting we could be seeing the coldest air of winter so far by Sunday after a wind and windy Saturday with some hill snow it looks sunny for most on Sunday though the south could see some rain a a bit of snow. Next week they are going for it to be cold with the winds easing allowing some frost and fog

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30594705

Edited December 23, 2014 by Summer Sun

[whiskers]

Snowstorm,britains big freeze is on more 4 now,might be the nearest we get to it! Those were the days!

[Summer Sun]

Wind and snow warning out from Friday afternoon to Saturday afternoon

 

Issued at: 1124 on Wed 24 Dec 2014

Valid from: 1500 on Fri 26 Dec 2014

Valid to: 1500 on Sat 27 Dec 2014

 

Wet weather is expected to spread into and across most of Scotland, England and Wales during Friday afternoon and evening. Over Scotland and northern England snow is expected in areas above 200 or 300 metres, especially in Scotland where in excess of 10 cm of snow is likely. Over northern England snow is likely to be confined to areas above 200 metres and may turn to rain in areas between 200 and 400 metres. Over Scotland, however, there is a risk that snow may affect lower lying areas through the Central Belt. Wind is expected to increase through Friday evening and night, exacerbating any disruption. The public should be aware of the potential for disruption, especially where increasing winds are combined with heavy snowfall. Please watch for updates to this warning over the coming days, especially those who have travel plans.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A deepening depression is expected to affect the UK on Friday Saturday. There remains greater than average uncertainty regarding the track of this depression, but the most likely scenario is for this depression to track eastwards across the UK rather than just north of Britain. The exact track of this depression is critical to snow risk, especially for the Central Belt of Scotland with snow here more likely should the centre of this depression track across the southern Uplands or northern England. The main hazard associated with this depression is expected to initially be snow, especially over ground above 200 metres in Scotland and northern England. Wind then increasingly becomes a hazard during Friday night and Saturday as this depression deepens, the strongest winds then expected on the northeastern, and more especially, the southwestern flank of the depression. This would leave coastal areas in North Wales, northern England and eastern Scotland likely to experience the windiest conditions.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1419638400&regionName=uk

[feb1991blizzard]

OH dear.

[Summer Sun]

Cold weather alert issued by the met office

 

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

 

Issued at: 0832 on Thu 25 Dec 2014

 

There is an 80% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 1500 on Friday and 0000 on Wednesday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

 

A spell of wet and windy weather is expected to develop over the UK on Boxing Day and at first on Saturday 27 December. Snow is likely in some northern and central areas, more especially on hills, with some significant accumulations possible. There is also an increasing signal for snow to affect some southern areas. The areas currently at greatest risk are parts of the Midlands, and southern parts of northern England. More settled conditions are expected thereafter, although it is likely to remain cold with widespread night frosts, and with mean temperatures widely 2C or less.

 

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

[Summer Sun]

Snow warning updated

 

Issued at: 0956 on Thu 25 Dec 2014

Valid from: 1100 on Fri 26 Dec 2014

Valid to: 0600 on Sat 27 Dec 2014

 

An area of rain, sleet and snow is expected to spread eastwards across parts of Northern Ireland, England and Wales during Boxing Day before clearing during the evening and overnight. A lot of uncertainty surrounds how much snow will occur, but there is the risk of several centimeters even at low levels. As precipitation clears, roads could turn very icy. The public should be aware of the potential for disruption from snow. Please watch for updates to this warning. especially if travelling.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A depression developing over the Atlantic Ocean is expected to track east then southeastwards across the southern half of Britain during Boxing Day. A spell of snow is likely, even to lower levels, on the northern flank of this depression. South of the depression centre, rain will fall, heavy at times. There remains much more uncertainty than average regarding the track of this depression which in turn leads to uncertainty about the location of the heaviest precipitation and how much snow there will be. Where snow does occur accumulations of 2 to 4 cm are likely even to lower levels and in excess of 10 cm possible.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1419638400&regionName=uk

 

Sky New story on this

 

Weather Alert As Four Inches Of Snow Expected

 

A cold weather alert has been issued - with a warning that more than four inches of snow could fall in some areas on Boxing Day.

 

The Met Office said the conditions could "increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services".

 

More follows...

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1397524/weather-alert-as-four-inches-of-snow-expected

Edited December 25, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Much milder but more unsettled weather for the new year according to the beebs latest forecast

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30605120

[Bristawl Si]

Much milder but more unsettled weather for the new year according to the beebs latest forecast

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30605120

And pretty much in line with the Meto contingency forecast for Winter, released a couple of months ago.

2nd half of meto Winter to look for that genuine pattern change maybe?

Edited December 26, 2014 by Bristle boy

[MP-R]

More weeks of winter's core wasted. The only crumb of comfort I can find at the moment (barring the fact it's Christmas and the models always show zonal regardless), is that Jan 2013 started far from favourably then things changed after the 10th. I really hope we don't get stuck in a zonal rut for days and days on end, would certainly go against thoughts for this winter.

[boywonder]

Not sure if mentioned , Braemar recorded -8.5C last night which is the coldest of the year.