Winter 2014-15 thread

[johnholmes]

I have said before with much criticism that lrforcasts are a bit pointless.The met office don't do too bad over a 2 week period but to forcast 3 months ahead is nothing more than guesswork.By all means I have no problem in someone giving a 4 week forcast that is something reasonable to aim at but anything longer is pointless!!

they are not pointless, what is pointless is some folk on weather sites who seem to feel that trying to predict is a waste. Only if scientists whatever their ...ology keep trying to advance their science will science advance. See my post above on possible time scales.

Everyone should accept that trying to forecast several months, say a season in advance, is highly speculative but as the post above this shows there is progress. In my day as a forecaster the monthly forecast was done solely on what they thought the jet stream would do and ordinary forecast in the mid to late 70's went only 3 at most 5 days ahead. So progress is being made.

[Peter H]

Well, we're rapidly running out time for this winter to be anything other than a soggy snowless mess.

Long range models kept us going again for three or four runs until this morning. At one stage they even hinted at an easterly developing, and several charts were similar to December 2010, but this afternoon they all flipped again.

Last winter was similar, and we kept expecting something which never happened.

After we get to about mid February we can really forget about it in these parts. Late February more often or not is actually quite spring like. The sun is really too strong at that time of the winter.

[Peter H]

the NAO in UK Winters

Yep, the NAO appears to be the key to UK weather during the winter. This season (like the last)) it's been pretty much positive.

[Lake District Blizzards]

Shaping up to be another very mild winter here.

 

December was 1c above average and January is already over 2c abover average

 

There is going to have to be a very potent cold spell at the end of the month to even get it down to near average. 

 

Mean min for january is 3c above average and with all the wind i cant see any temps near freezing in the next week or so.

[Ninman]

Just for fun:

 

[damianslaw]

Shaping up to be another very mild winter here.

 

December was 1c above average and January is already over 2c abover average

 

There is going to have to be a very potent cold spell at the end of the month to even get it down to near average. 

 

Mean min for january is 3c above average and with all the wind i cant see any temps near freezing in the next week or so.

 

 

December overall wasn't far off average here, with a number of quite cold nights, maximum temps were often around average, sometimes below and sometimes above, certainly not a very mild December, but agree no real sustained cold weather neither - we did manage 24 hours sub 0 degrees on the 29th though.

 

Yes start of Jan very mild with no frost to speak of, and very mild maxima in the main - but we've had many such starts over recent years, last year for example, 2013 lesser degree, 2012 certainly so, likewise 2007 and 2008 -very mild starts.

 

The second half of winter on average is colder than the first half. A more average spell of weather is on the cards for the foreseeable future temp wise with a return to frost despite the wind, indeed winds look like slackening off next week and with much colder uppers mins will be very close to freezing with supressed maxes, watch mean temps take a tumble from Monday onwards.

[AderynCoch]

Today was and still is repugnantly mild. This squall line can't come through quick enough. (EDIT - don't think there is a squall line. So much for that)

 

Humberside Airport was still 16C at 9:30pm. Many days last August struggled to top that.

Edited January 9, 2015 by AderynCoch

[TonyH]

Phenomenally warm for mid Winter.

[feb1991blizzard]

I hope this spring is a meteorological fascinating one. It's 20 years since spring 1995, one of my favourite springs as it had all variations.

As for this winter, I t's been a strange feeling winter. It doesn't feel like it has been wintry even though I have seen more frosts than last winter thus far and the field behind me was snow covered from Boxing Day night to New Year's Eve, the longest period such period since December 2010.

 

I remember 1995 well, the winter was crap, we had a cold spell between xmas and new year and apart from an inch which quickly turned to rain on a Friday afternoon in late January (west midlands then) we didn't get nothing until a dumping of about 5 inches on a Thursday overnight into Friday in early March, just out of interest how much did you get from that late Jan snow to rain event, I remember watching an FA CUP tie on the Saturday between Burnley and Liverpool and the snow was piled at the side of the pitch even though it was about 9c, I thought to myself I would love to move up North, I just thought the North was best for snow end of, but in reality ive realised since that its very very localised, those March snow showers lasted right until the last 3rd of March as well, excluding spring though, the meteorological winter of 94-95 was garbage, I don't agree that the 90s was the worst decade though, the naughties was much worse, there were still some really decent events in the early nineties, the 90s was poor compared to the 80s but the 80s was a stonker right up until 89-90, even 87-88 gave me about a 6 - 8 inch fall in the second week of Jan and some showers in late February.

[Woollymummy]

I just popped out into the garden to watch the pine trees in the strong gusts, and saw a big pale moth fluttering about to get to the porch light, and trying to sit and rest on the wildly waving washing line!

[feb1991blizzard]

I just popped out into the garden to watch the pine trees in the strong gusts, and saw a big pale moth fluttering about to get to the porch light, and trying to sit and rest on the wildly waving washing line!

 

Ive got a phobia of moths (and spiders), just shows you how warm its been this last year, I had big house spiders right up until December, they normally die or hibernate by mid October.

[Dartmoor2014]

59 mph gust here today and 16.5c in Exeter on friday. High hopes for the storm of storms for snow to occure and making ready the wood supply here and generator for power

[Summer Sun]

The beeb are slowly firming up on a colder snap next weekend with the jet stream moving south the UK will turn colder with some wintry showers not just on the Scottish mountains they could become widespread and frost also becoming more widespread

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30761499

Edited January 12, 2015 by Summer Sun

[I remember Atlantic 252]

models must be going to change then, I really cannot see any cold for next weekend onwards, ECM especially showing mildish weekend, GFS shows coldish weekend, but uppers pants, but milding up on 19th

 

think meto may be wrong here, unless models suddenly flip, looks average Jan to me

[KTtom]

Not really, that video backs up exactly what the models show, a cold north westerly for Saturday with widespread wintry showers followed by a dry day Sunday as the Atlantic ridge collapses over the UK bringing a hard frost Sunday night.

[Weather-history]

models must be going to change then, I really cannot see any cold for next weekend onwards, ECM especially showing mildish weekend, GFS shows coldish weekend, but uppers pants, but milding up on 19th

 

think meto may be wrong here, unless models suddenly flip, looks average Jan to me

ECM shows entire country under -5C air for the bulk of the weekend, it has a little low zipping across the south that may bring a white covering to some parts early Saturday and you say it's mildish?

[KTtom]

After a bit of a trawl...I've found the most (well only) accurate(ish) winter forecast thus far...

 

http://www.ukweatherwatch.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=98&t=4564&p=74204#p74204

Edited January 11, 2015 by KTtom

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

BBC weather this morning were not very keen on the snow prospects this coming week, unless you are in the Highlands. Plenty of storm activity and rain if that floats your boat!     

[Gray-Wolf]

Yeah, i'd noted the MetO dropping the yellow snow warnings for here over today? Not looking forward to a repeat of last year myself i just hope the lows keep well north and spare the SW the kind of drenching it saw last year? I think the far north is far better at dealing with such rain events?

[Weather-history]

After a bit of a trawl...I've found the most (well only) accurate(ish) winter forecast thus far...

 

http://www.ukweatherwatch.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=98&t=4564&p=74204#p74204

Any members who are knowledgeable on classical music? They may have heard of "variations on a theme of" for titles of some classical pieces, well that forecast is the meteorological equivalent of because the old memory banks clicked in and I thought that sounds familiar. Previous forecasts have roughly said the same thing

"Two very mild months and the third one with a rex block" Variations on a theme of......

What do they say about a broken watch and twice a day?

[feb1991blizzard]

Blocking of sorts showing deep into FI on the 18z and some insanely frigid cold not too far away.

 

[syed2878]

@summer sun. personally i wouldn't class this as a cold sbell mor a cold snap. as for this winters turning out to be better than laster winter isn't surprising it wouldn't take much for that last winter was a 1 off an event in 250 years if i'm rite. as for the winter forecast so far it's not doing too bad for   nw parts of the u.k and scotland wich again no surprise most folks down south i don't  think had much snow if any so far. here in this part of brum we only had half an our of snow on the 27TH dec. as for this week I dont think from  birmingham south whill see any lowlevel snow apart from some wintery showers.

[TonyH]

After a bit of a trawl...I've found the most (well only) accurate(ish) winter forecast thus far...

http://www.ukweatherwatch.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=98&t=4564&p=74204#p74204

Puzzled how you had to trawl the net when you are that sites owner? Edited January 12, 2015 by TonyH

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

After a bit of a trawl...I've found the most (well only) accurate(ish) winter forecast thus far...

 

http://www.ukweatherwatch.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=98&t=4564&p=74204#p74204

A big ISH

 

BFTP

[feno13]

After a bit of a trawl...I've found the most (well only) accurate(ish) winter forecast thus far...

 

http://www.ukweatherwatch.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=98&t=4564&p=74204#p74204

After a bit of a trawl ?? . Come on mate, you own the site lol