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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter


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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Hi CC

    I just went back & reviewed the ECM 240 & FWIW as we know the speed at which any breakdown occurs is related to the pacific jet pushing back through the states -

    So it was very pleasing to see another strong -EPO high at that time ( slightly further east ) with signs that wanted to ridge into the pole as well.

    Also of note was the 240 chart moved deep artic cold into england ( north ) & a low in the SW approaches - this was signalling a big snow event for the UK ( more significant than the 216 chart )

    Probably further south as well

    However those finer details can wait - its still the big picture at the moment

    We need these stella charts at 72/96/120

    S

    Completely agree with you. The overall LW pattern is important for now and the micro features and fine tuning can wait. However, even if it's ultimately a bust, how refreshing is it to see such charts after last year's nightmare?!

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    A few of you have asked today about rationale for the (tail-end of) UKMO latest 30-day outlook. There is, of course, a dedicated thread elsewhere for this but I'll just confirm that GloSea5 output rem

    Thanks for this Barry   You are however wrong on both counts you suggest :   1) I have explained in extended detail, as much as I am able, the progress of the patterns thus far from autumn (see firs

    Hopefully a timely interjection, but UKMO caution (again) that medium range NWP may not be adequately reflecting ultimate broadscale outcome. First tentative signs emerging, they suggest, of *possible

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Ellon 70m
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Ellon 70m

    So its more about getting the cold in first and then worry about the detail later??? some very good looking chances from the current out put tho.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    So its more about getting the cold in first and then worry about the detail later??? some very good looking chances from the current out put tho.

     

    Yes Big S, Lets hope to see this pattern continue and get the cold here as you say, There will be many variations over the coming days so no concern yet reg detail. 

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    ooooooo the ecm has a eagle flying south and sw look at them cold uppers but the ecm has now joined the coldie party but the problem is that the ecm has been a little wobbly just lately.

     

    but best winter chart seen for a fair few years.

    fingers crossed lows diving sw wow incredible not far of a 63 jobby 

     

    ECH0-240.GIF?17-12

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    Hi CC
    I just went back & reviewed the ECM 240 & FWIW as we know the speed at which any breakdown occurs is related to the pacific jet pushing back through the states -
    So it was very pleasing to see another strong -EPO high at that time ( slightly further east ) with signs that wanted to ridge into the pole as well.
    Also of note was the 240 chart moved deep artic cold into england ( north ) & a low in the SW approaches - this was signalling a big snow event for the UK ( more significant than the 216 chart )
    Probably further south as well
    However those finer details can wait - its still the big picture at the moment
    We need these stella charts at 72/96/120
    S


    Newbies should take note of SM last line. A long time before T0. Nothing remotely nailed other than it is miles better than last year. Interesting times but would like to see meto on board as well.
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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Some very nice looking output this morning. Seems like the ECM now wants to join the gfs cold party. But im still going to air on the side of caution. Think we need to see the met office come on board. Until then let's hope these charts move towards the reliable timeframe. Because here in good old Blighty if it can go wrong it probably will.

    Some very nice looking output this morning. Seems like the ECM now wants to join the gfs cold party. But im still going to air on the side of caution. Think we need to see the met office come on board. Until then let's hope these charts move towards the reliable timeframe. Because here in good old Blighty if it can go wrong it probably will.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

    I think the title "The Great Boxing Day Blizzard" has quite a ring to it, don't you think?

    Would be nice to see a chart like this just a couple of days before, I know the colder weather seems to keep getting moved forward?

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204&runpara=1

    What an amazing set of runs! Even if they don't happen, I always go to work happy that morning, with fantasies of being stranded in a blizzard, then finding a little wooden shack in the woods, with a blazing fire and.......... Basically 'Good King Wenceslas' (spelling??) :-D

    post-9095-0-70222000-1418804156_thumb.jp but the link has no Boxing Day blizzard , snow in the northwest with a rain event for the rest of England .

    Far too early to be analysing ppn charts at t200 away , the ecm looks way over the top with them lows like that , probably much further south as Steve m says , but pointless at minute lets all just look for trends .

    Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I hope the ECM tones down those two lows nearer the time, whilst it might look fun for those north of the centre on the southern flank theres some pretty vile winds. Who needs all that drama at Christmas!

     

    Of course at that range these lows might well disappear by this evening or be much weaker, overall though we're still not seeing a clean transition to cold with alot going on by way of shortwaves in the Atlantic especially on the ECM.

     

    The pattern is also just  a bit too far west, the GFS P with a western based negative NAO, regardless of any eye candy that might appear past T240hrs its pretty underwhelming, the ECM at least holds the troughing over eastern Canada which would hopefully keep the pattern from going further west although its still too close for comfort.

     

    Overall nothings agreed on today in terms of whether Christmas is white or green, and certainly the ECM needs to get more festiive, yes deliver some snow but really whats with the wind?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Braintree, Essex
  • Location: Braintree, Essex

    I hope the ECM tones down those two lows nearer the time, whilst it might look fun for those north of the centre on the southern flank theres some pretty vile winds. Who needs all that drama at Christmas!

     

    Of course at that range these lows might well disappear by this evening or be much weaker, overall though we're still not seeing a clean transition to cold with alot going on by way of shortwaves in the Atlantic especially on the ECM.

     

    The pattern is also just  a bit too far west, the GFS P with a western based negative NAO, regardless of any eye candy that might appear past T240hrs its pretty underwhelming, the ECM at least holds the troughing over eastern Canada which would hopefully keep the pattern from going further west although its still too close for comfort.

     

    Overall nothings agreed on today in terms of whether Christmas is white or green, and certainly the ECM needs to get more festiive, yes deliver some snow but really whats with the wind?!

    Its because of the vast quantities of sprouts consumed during xmas day.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    To be fair to ECM, the gfs colder period was always Boxing Day onwards at the earliest so I doubt if can be accused of being 'late to the party'! today is the first Boxing Day chart issued. the extended ECM ens anomolys have been in the same place as the gefs - infact I'd say they were just there first as they picked up a nw euro low anomoly a run or so before ncep.

    a very long way before we can put any meat on the bones and the envelope still too wide to be popping open the champagne. however, it's not like the op charts we now see should come as a surprise.

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    Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

    Post Xmas on the GFS P is an absolute stonker! It is rapidly becoming my new favourite model. The key difference to the 18Z is that the ridging is extends further east which puts the uk right in the firing line rather for heavy snowfall rather than just missing out.

     

     

    h850t850eu.png

    00Z

    h850t850eu.png

    18Z

     

    The presence of a few shortwaves off the north west coast also aid in setting us up for some really fantastic FI charts if cold and snow is your thing.

    Edited by IBringTheHammer
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    I hope the ECM tones down those two lows nearer the time, whilst it might look fun for those north of the centre on the southern flank theres some pretty vile winds. Who needs all that drama at Christmas!

     

    Of course at that range these lows might well disappear by this evening or be much weaker, overall though we're still not seeing a clean transition to cold with alot going on by way of shortwaves in the Atlantic especially on the ECM.

     

    The pattern is also just  a bit too far west, the GFS P with a western based negative NAO, regardless of any eye candy that might appear past T240hrs its pretty underwhelming, the ECM at least holds the troughing over eastern Canada which would hopefully keep the pattern from going further west although its still too close for comfort.

     

    Overall nothings agreed on today in terms of whether Christmas is white or green, and certainly the ECM needs to get more festiive, yes deliver some snow but really whats with the wind?!

    Too far west? But move the pattern east and if could become a very brief cold plunge as the Atlantic high pushes across us nick?? tbh, it's only the residual euro heights and Azores placement that are a problem in this regard and they could be quite different come the time. I'd rather take my chances with a broad cold nw euro trough than play the game where we need an Atlantic high in just the right place.

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    Posted
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt

    This "post xmas day event" has been hinted at in very deep FI for some time now. IF ( a big if) this comes off then the GFS should be given a big pat on the back especially for its FI work.

    Edited by garbagebags
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

    attachicon.gifimage.jpg but the link has no Boxing Day blizzard , snow in the northwest with a rain event for the rest of England .

    Far too early to be analysing ppn charts at t200 away , the ecm looks way over the top with them lows like that , probably much further south as Steve m says , but pointless at minute lets all just look for trends .

    You didn't read my post :-)

     

    The ECM shows one, and the GFSP a couple of days later     http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

    Edited by cyclonic happiness
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Too far west? But move the pattern east and if could become a very brief cold plunge as the Atlantic high pushes across us nick?? tbh, it's only the residual euro heights and Azores placement that are a problem in this regard and they could be quite different come the time. I'd rather take my chances with a broad cold nw euro trough than play the game where we need an Atlantic high in just the right place.

    I don't think a touch further east would be problematical but certainly any further west and it wouldn't be looking good. I'm only viewing the output upto T240hrs, the GFS P does develop more interest later but given the timeframes its not something you can trust.

     

    I'm quite picky when it comes to UK cold weather because I look for what can go wrong rather than right, both the ECM and GFS P past T240hrs are code red.The ECM however is better this morning than last night apart from the depth of those lows.

     

    I will certainly be happy to join the ramping when the outputs pass my "stress" test but until then I'm going to be bizarrely lacking in any theatricals!

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Littlehampton, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Littlehampton, West Sussex

    One for Steve Murr, Thunder snow, Snow plough's at the ready!!!!!

     

    gfs-2-276.png?0

     

    I am normally a lurker but looking at this chart from GFS(P) what is going on in the north of Spain - armageddon, black hole?

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Ido some of your posts never make sense

    'Average' fair on the ECM

    Lol

    It gives northern england & scotland about a foot of snow across 192-240

    & a huge cross polar ridge /-AO

    But is average fair......

    Pretty rubbish charts aye Steve some what reminds me of the winter 09/10 and 1963 pretty rubbish them winters were!.

    But they came out of nowhere and I'm more confident on this winter and that the lrf that some of you all done looks likely to be heading in the right direction.

    I'd love for you all to get it right and it's looking good now !.

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    Posted
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport

    From WSI

    Monday's ECM update indicating a potential cold spell for Scandi and W'ern Europe at end of Dec/ start of January.

    post-115-0-21926500-1418806851_thumb.png

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