Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

[Abyss]

Woke up briefly so just a quick post of my favourite charts deep in to FI

 

#

 

 

 

[Mucka]

Yup GFS and GFS (p) have a chilly Christmas though widespread snow is not modeled on either for the big day.

Overall the parallel run has by far the most interest for deep cold and widespread snow thereafter.

We are really seeing some deep cold and wintry charts being modeled now though still no strong signal for Greenland high and sustained HLB as yet though that is counterbalanced by the length and depth of any cold. Still trending the right way so far.

 

 

 

We need ECM to get aboard the Winter express.

Edited December 17, 2014 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS P in FI is pure winter weather eye candy. A nice FI blizzard in there too. Lovely output.

[Mucka]

GFS 00z ensembles continue to firm up on some form of Northerly outbreak for Christmas - this is the 4th consecutive upgrade of cold weather prospects and long may it continue.

 

 

Still a fair few options and the odd milder run as to be expected that range but signal quite strong now.

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS 00z ensembles continue to firm up on some form of Northerly outbreak for Christmas - this is the 4th consecutive upgrade of cold weather prospects and long may it continue.

Still a fair few options and the odd milder run as to be expected that range but signal quite strong now.

The GEFS synoptic mean for Boxing Day is very encouraging indeed.

Looking through the individual members, there are quite a few in there that have 'that' look. I.e precursor conditions for some eventual prolonged cold.

Edited December 17, 2014 by CreweCold

[West is Best]

TEITS: Thanks for your post , recently I have noticed a lot of posts regarding different views regarding a Ian Brown and other current members having conflicting views in the past. My question is maybe without a 100% answer . Who was right? And are these synotics similar to this time. If memory serves me right it was when I first started looking in the background and have a vague recollection early feb 2012 maybe.

Many thanks mark

Ah now there's a question! Back in the day there were some great battles on here with winners and losers. Those who thought AGW was fixed, and I was one, then had egg on our faces when the weather refused to follow the script. If you think Ian Brown is a warm weatherite you should have seen Stratos Ferric.

 

The 0z operational is certainly now upping the 25/12 northerly which really digs in on Boxing Day. What will interest many observers is the growing intensity of the 850hPa uppers and the first real signs of height rise mid-Atlantic to Greenland at the same timescale. At the moment the GFS is still keeping the cold incursion to a few days, but many of us will note that when a pattern change starts showing like this it often takes the model outputs time to pick up the trends. Certainly real signs of encouragement for cold fans, and well done to TEITS, Tamara and others for sticking to your guns.

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 8 charts,

GFS

Parallel

GEM

All 3 show some sort of north west/northerly for Christmas day

GFS mean looks ok too

Will the ECM follow suit?

Not as good

Still ok with sunny spells and a few showers in the north west of the UK, wintry over the hills. Turns cold by day 10 with snow to low levels in the north so a better run this morning.

Edited December 17, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Polar Maritime]

Some stunning cold charts this morning from the GFSP. With the Atlantic well and truly blocked, Drawing a bitter N/N/E flow over the UK. 

 

Edited December 17, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[winterof79]

ECM out of kilter with all other models at 144z in that low heights to our north west are not evident so no northerly from that.Sorry can't post charts at present.

[Polar Maritime]

ECMWF is also showing Heights pushing up into Greenland around the big day. With a slack N/Ely flow, Some very cold charts on offer this morning across the board, Let's hope this theme continues and Winter proper arrives for the New Year. As GP used to say 'it's coming' 

 

Edited December 17, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[IDO]

A real test for the GFS P as the ensembles remain very mute with respect to the P's Northerly. I could only find four members similar at D12 and the P was by far the most amplified. A very uncertain picture IMO though with the US going into the freezer again there should be some colder uppers discharged from their PV lobe.

 

GEM gives us a brief toppler Northerly but only snow for the N/High ground and by D10: 

 

Out in deep FI there remains a clear signal for the Alaskan/Pacific Ridge. However it is beginning to look like it has no longevity. Either shortwaves closing the WAA or more mobile than we need (early days though):

 

 

It does look like the trend is to return the PV lobe back to NE Canada but no clear trend as to where the UK will sit synoptic's wise.

 

Christmas and Boxing Day means on the GEFS suggest average/cool in the south (very little chance of snow):

 

   

 

ECM op Christmas Day:   Boxing Day: 

 

Looking average fare as well. ECM at D10 not far off synoptic wise to the GFS P: 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 17, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM out of kilter with all other models at 144z in that low heights to our north west are not evident so no northerly from that.Sorry can't post charts at present.

It has spotted an intense little area of LP at 216 hrs though, a bit earlier than the GFS P shows it and not engaging any cold air, yet. However I think the day 10 chart could be a fairly wintry one.

[SMU]

Morning

As said - probably the best model suite for consistency & cold potential for 2 years....

Some huge snow events on gfs & GFS p with the ECM a day behind in terms of cold but even that then arrives with a bang-

Also a huge snow storm brewing for the US associated with what they call a 50:50 low - slightly more focussed on the mid states which is greatnews for us as it will support the atlantic ridge ahead of a

It!

A great start today with hints from the gfs op of ridging to scandi - but to far out to consider just yet-

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

A real test for the GFS P as the ensembles remain very mute with respect to the P's Northerly. I could only find four members similar at D12 and the P was by far the most amplified. A very uncertain picture IMO though with the US going into the freezer again there should be some colder uppers discharged from their PV lobe.

GEM gives us a brief toppler Northerly but only snow for the N/High ground and by D10: gemnh-0-240 (6).png

Out in deep FI there remains a clear signal for the Alaskan/Pacific Ridge. However it is beginning to look like it has no longevity. Either shortwaves closing the WAA or more mobile than we need (early days though):

gensnh-21-1-384 (12).png

It does look like the trend is to return the PV lobe back to NE Canada but no clear trend as to where the UK will sit synoptic's wise.

Christmas and Boxing Day means on the GEFS suggest average/cool in the south (very little chance of snow):

gens-21-1-204.png gens-21-1-228.png

ECM op Christmas Day: ECM1-192.gif Boxing Day: ECM1-216 (2).gif

Looking average fare as well.

Very cold uppers spreading S at day 10 on the ECM 0z. LP engaging cold air and looks as though the GFS P is well backed up by the ECM on the potential blizzard scenario.

Make no mistake, that would be a severe, crippling snowstorm for the UK.

Edited December 17, 2014 by CreweCold

[SMU]

Ido some of your posts never make sense

'Average' fair on the ECM

Lol

It gives northern england & scotland about a foot of snow across 192-240

& a huge cross polar ridge /-AO

But is average fair......

[Cheshire Freeze]

Morning

As said - probably the best model suite for consistency & cold potential for 2 years....

Some huge snow events on gfs & GFS p with the ECM a day behind in terms of cold but even that then arrives with a bang-

Also a huge snow storm brewing for the US associated with what they call a 50:50 low - slightly more focussed on the mid states which is greatnews for us as it will support the atlantic ridge ahead of a

It!

A great start today with hints from the gfs op of ridging to scandi - but to far out to consider just yet-

S

Yep noticed the attempted Scandinavian ridging too Steve. One way of heading into a deep freeze.

[IDO]

Very cold uppers spreading S at day 10 on the ECM 0z. LP engaging cold air and looks as though the GFS P is well backed up by the ECM on the potential blizzard scenario.

Make no mistake, that would be a severe, crippling snowstorm for the UK.

 

Yes updated my post. Looks good.

 

Ido some of your posts never make sense

'Average' fair on the ECM

Lol

It gives northern england & scotland about a foot of snow across 192-240

& a huge cross polar ridge /-AO

But is average fair......

 

Sorry Steve. IMBY post, should have included "average in the south".

[West is Best]

Morning

As said - probably the best model suite for consistency & cold potential for 2 years....

Some huge snow events on gfs & GFS p with the ECM a day behind in terms of cold but even that then arrives with a bang-

 

Morning Steve. Yes I'm not sure quite why there should be disappointment at the ECM: it's stunning. OK so it would take a while for the colder uppers to pull down but that's a hell of a LP a T216 which would help unlock pretty severe polar conditions. Throw in retrogression and you have a stunning potential set up.

 

Pattern change ahead which means lots of uncertainty. Expect some upgrades before the inevitable wobbles, but a cold festive season looks near-certain now.

[winterof79]

Ido some of your posts never make sense

'Average' fair on the ECM

Lol

It gives northern england & scotland about a foot of snow across 192-240

& a huge cross polar ridge /-AO

But is average fair......

I am quite partial to a good ice fair,what time does it start over christmas?â„

[West is Best]

Morning

As said - probably the best model suite for consistency & cold potential for 2 years....

Some huge snow events on gfs & GFS p with the ECM a day behind in terms of cold but even that then arrives with a bang-

 

 

Morning

As said - probably the best model suite for consistency & cold potential for 2 years....

Some huge snow events on gfs & GFS p with the ECM a day behind in terms of cold but even that then arrives with a bang-

Also a huge snow storm brewing for the US associated with what they call a 50:50 low - slightly more focussed on the mid states which is greatnews for us as it will support the atlantic ridge ahead of a

It!

A great start today with hints from the gfs op of ridging to scandi - but to far out to consider just yet-

S

Morning Steve. Yes I'm not sure quite why there should be disappointment at the ECM: it's stunning. OK so it would take a while for the colder uppers to pull down but that's a hell of a LP a T216 which would help unlock pretty severe polar conditions. Throw in retrogression and you have a stunning potential set up.

 

Pattern change ahead which means lots of uncertainty. Expect some upgrades before the inevitable wobbles, but a cold festive season looks near-certain now.

[TEITS]

Well im delighted my cat woke me up early because the output is very pleasing.

 

When seeking a cold spell we know this far out the models aren't going to be 100% accurate so its all about momentum and which way the models are trending. There is no doubt over the past 48 hrs the momentum is moving towards a cold spell with a few highlights to keep in mind which I shall list below.

 

1. Real potential for a nasty deep Lp system to form and the potential for this to develop into a real blizzard. The track and the synoptics prior to this are still in doubt. The reason I highlight this isn't just because of the GFSP or ECM because this has been hinted at in previous runs.

 

2. Chance that the intial N,ly could turn into an E,ly as hinted at by the GEM.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014121700/gem-0-240.png?00

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well im delighted my cat woke me up early because the output is very pleasing.

When seeking a cold spell we know this far out the models aren't going to be 100% accurate so its all about momentum and which way the models are trending. There is no doubt over the past 48 hrs the momentum is moving towards a cold spell with a few highlights to keep in mind which I shall list below.

1. Real potential for a nasty deep Lp system to form and the potential for this to develop into a real blizzard. The track and the synoptics prior to this are still in doubt. The reason I highlight this isn't just because of the GFSP or ECM because this has been hinted at in previous runs.

2. Chance that the intial N,ly could turn into an E,ly as hinted at by the GEM.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014121700/gem-0-240.png?00

It's particularly nice to see the Easterly hints on the GFS aswell. Given a perceived bias towards more zonal synoptics in FI, the fact it's picking up on Scandi ridging potential so far out has to be seen as encouraging.

P.S you can tell it's winter model watching season... I haven't even been bed yet!

Edited December 17, 2014 by CreweCold

[SMU]

Agreed on the south / south east IDO imby wise we are sailing clos to the wind - however hopefully the deep lows that are hitting the uk will be over projected and will slide in at a more easterly angle ( not NE )

Forum very buggy today hit reply & it takes you back to your post!!

Hi WIB hope your well

Good to see you posting

[Cheshire Freeze]

Agreed on the south / south east IDO imby wise we are sailing clos to the wind - however hopefully the deep lows that are hitting the uk will be over projected and will slide in at a more easterly angle ( not NE )

Forum very buggy today hit reply & it takes you back to your post!!

Hi WIB hope your well

Good to see you posting

Steve, in your eyes how do you see post day 10 ECM 0z panning out? Looks cold to me and yes I think SE would get into the action eventually. Modest blocking around Greenland locale too.

[SMU]

Steve, in your eyes how do you see post day 10 ECM 0z panning out? Looks cold to me and yes I think SE would get into the action eventually. Modest blocking around Greenland locale too.

Hi CC

I just went back & reviewed the ECM 240 & FWIW as we know the speed at which any breakdown occurs is related to the pacific jet pushing back through the states -

So it was very pleasing to see another strong -EPO high at that time ( slightly further east ) with signs that wanted to ridge into the pole as well.

Also of note was the 240 chart moved deep artic cold into england ( north ) & a low in the SW approaches - this was signalling a big snow event for the UK ( more significant than the 216 chart )

Probably further south as well

However those finer details can wait - its still the big picture at the moment

We need these stella charts at 72/96/120

S