Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

Santa Claus is coming to town......oh if only eh?  Amazing chart

 

BFTP

[SylvainTV]

Guess it's a night for model mayhem, Don't shoot the messenger...

 

Capture.JPG

 

They seem to be working though. Up to +78h so far.

[carinthian]

Well, the gfs ( PAR ) continues to drop heights further south with each run. A  Nely still showing just after Christmas with a even colder air mass over the UK. At this rate , the developing low could even disappear into France, now that would be a thing, considering a few days ago , a Bartlet was in place there ! . Fun and games a head. I have got a good feeling.

 C

[Mapantz]

Just a quickie..

Has anyone got a link or any info on the GFS-P's verification stats since the maintenance downtime?

It's certainly thrown a few beauties up over the last few days but I don't know how to take it, despite the higher resolution out in FI.

Cheers.

[Mucka]

Just a quickie..

Has anyone got a link or any info on the GFS-P's verification stats since the maintenance downtime?

It's certainly thrown a few beauties up over the last few days but I don't know how to take it, despite the higher resolution out in FI.

Cheers.

 

 

With a large dose of salt like all FI output. 

Edited December 16, 2014 by Mucka

[nick sussex]

Both GFS's look messy and unconvincing, the GFS P in particular with a sea of shortwaves. Overall its a confusing picture made more complicated by these slow moving lows in the Atlantic.

 

There are positives from the outputs for coldies but generally we want to see a clean transition to reduce the " stress factor"! Christmas weather at this point is very much up in the air, it does look like it could turn colder but the big question is whether it snows on the big day.

 

Still a few days before we can see whether that's possible.

[Mucka]

ECM London ensembles. Op almost out on its own with the Xmas mild.

 

 

A good cluster going for trending colder thereafter with about a 4/5 day cold spell. not bad for starters.

 

Get rid of that mild scatter and the mean would be barely above freezing for a while and this is in the South remember.

I'm a little excited.

Edited December 16, 2014 by Mucka

[ITSY]

well THAT was a festive run from our dear Parallel!

[Frosty.]

Shortwaves be damned, it's going to turn much colder than it is now during the second half of next week and I really think we will see some snow in various parts of the UK between Christmas eve and boxing day.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Lol, Just take a look at this beauty.

Would I be right in thinking that this a '3 Wave Pattern'?

Certainly an incredible GEFS ensemble member chart with the Polar Vortex busted.

Edited December 16, 2014 by DiagonalRedLine

[Mapantz]

With a large dose of salt like all FI output. 

Goes without saying there, Mucka.

Perhaps it hasn't been back online long enough for any stats yet?

There's certainly some marked differences between the GFS and GFS-P lately- very intriguing to say the least?!

[nick sussex]

ECM London ensembles. Op almost out on its own with the Xmas mild.

 

 

A good cluster going for trending colder thereafter with about a 4/5 day cold spell. not bad for starters.

 

Get rid of that mild scatter and the mean would be barely above freezing for a while and this is in the South remember.

I'm a little excited.

Well that finally puts to bed the drama regarding the infamous tweet! Those ensembles look pretty similar to De Bilt with the colder cluster. We just need the ECM operational run to drop its west based negative NAO tomorrow which given its winter performance so far shouldn't hopefully be too difficult.

 

Overall not a bad evening, lets hope things gather pace tomorrow.

[Blue max 90]

Would I be right in thinking that this a '3 Wave Pattern'?

Certainly an incredible GEFS ensemble member chart with the Polar Vortex busted.

Wow! What a great present that would be! Edited December 16, 2014 by Blue max 90

[SMU]

Would I be right in thinking that this a '3 Wave Pattern'?

Certainly an incredible GEFS ensemble member chart with the Polar Vortex busted.

 

Yes a classic 3 wave pattern east based NAO ( Iceland)

 

S

[Gavin Hannah]

Everyone ready for the 00Z runs?? Good, see you all in here tomorrow when we start this all over again lol.

[blizzard81]

Very worrying looking at the GFS 18z control run at 240hrs. Very similar to the ECM 12z op. Maybe Matt Hugo's tweet will become reality after all! I hope tomorrow morning's 00z runs will contradict this post but I have a bad feeling about this one. And just to think that some people on here actually thought his account had been hacked, you have to laugh really! A classic case of people believing what they want to believe.

Edited December 16, 2014 by blizzard81

[Mair Snaw]

Everyone ready for the 00Z runs?? Good, see you all in here tomorrow when we start this all over again lol.

Early doors in the morning...could be a long few days of model watching....I wont sleep tonight.

[geordiekev]

Tonight's extended EPS at T360

 

Azores ridge just to west of UK. Weak trough just east of Scandinavia extending south into Europe. Intensive ridge Alaska and a weak trough N. Canada extending SE into Atlantic with neutral heights Greenland.

Thanks for your insight as ever, but without the copyright charts, can you explain the evolutions from t240 and how they might effect us from that point.

[Abyss]

Yes a classic 3 wave pattern east based NAO ( Iceland)

 

S

Hi Steve, can you explain what a 3 wave pattern is? Cheers

[TEITS]

Well despite some saying, a few days ago, there was no chance of a pattern change in the 10-15 day forecast period, the models are certainly trending towards a change. I mentioned a few days ago that a mega cold spell could occur after xmas and I must confess after I made that post I thought using the word "mega" was OTT. However looking at some of the output today especially the GFS P maybe I was correct.

 

Worth mentioning that when it comes to blocking towards Greenland developing then in my experience the GFS is the daddy. Who can forget the excellent performance of this model prior to the 2009, 2010 cold spells and lets not forget the way the ECM was often very poor. I still remember the arguments with Ian Brown when the chart below was being modelled because the ECM intially had the blocking and Lp much farther W resulting in the UK having a very mild SW,ly!

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101218.gif

 

Reason for editing is due to a spelling mistake because I cannot spell lol.

Edited December 16, 2014 by TEITS

[Mair Snaw]

Hi Steve, can you explain what a 3 wave pattern is? Cheers

I think it means 3 waves of high pressure attacking the polar vortex....im a bit new to all this wave 1 wave 2 wave 3 stuff so I might be wrong...but that's what it looks like to me...

[LomondSnowstorm]

Very worrying looking at the GFS 18z control run at 240hrs. Very similar to the ECM 12z op. Maybe Matt Hugo's tweet will become reality after all! I hope tomorrow morning's 00z runs will contradict this post but I have a bad feeling about this one.

No matter how bad the output is tomorrow I'm almost certain it won't make tonight's ECM ensembles any worse 

Seriously though, there are a few west-based -NAO setups in there, and certainly I wouldn't discount it (even if we had full cross-model agreement on an east-based -NAO it could still easily end up shifting at this timescale). IIRC the northerly in December 2009 (or perhaps the 2010 one, or both!) had a number of model runs going for a west-based NAO and we saw it correct eastwards, (although in the case of the former it did end up a bit too far west for southern parts at least) while on the other hand a few northerlies which were modelled disappeared off to the east on verification. I'd certainly rather go for amplification over Greenland than rely on a Russian high backing westwards, a pattern we've seen attempted so many times in the last few winters with relatively poor success.

 

 

Well despite some saying, a few days ago, there was no chance of a pattern change in the 10-15 day forecast period, the models are certainly trending towards a change. I mentioned a few days ago that a mega cold spell could occur after xmas and I must confess after I made that post I thought using the word "mega" was OTT. However looking at some of the output today especially the GFS P maybe I was correct.

 

Worth mentioning that when it comes to blocking towards Greenland developing then in my experience the GFS is the daddy. Who can forget the excellent performance of this model prior to the 2009, 2010 cold spells and lets not forget the way the ECM was often very poor. I still remember the arguments with Ian Brown when the chart below was being modelled because the ECM intially had the blocking and Lp much farther W resulting in the UK having a very mild SW,ly!

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101218.gif

 

Reason for editing is due to a spelling mistake because I cannot spell lol.

 

That was the one (or at least one of the ones)! Great minds

Edited December 16, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[Mark wheeler]

Well despite some saying, a few days ago, there was no chance of a pattern change in the 10-15 day forecast period, the models are certainly trending towards a change. I mentioned a few days ago that a mega cold spell could occur after xmas and I must confess after I made that post I thought using the word "mega" was OTT. However looking at some of the output today especially the GFS P maybe I was correct.

Worth mentioning that when it comes to blocking towards Greenland developing then in my experience the GFS is the daddy. Who can forget the excellent performance of this model prior to the 2009, 2010 cold spells and lets not forget the way the ECM was often very poor. I still remember the arguments with Ian Brown when the chart below was being modelled because the ECM intially had the blocking and Lp much farther W resulting in the UK having a very mild SW,ly!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101218.gif

Reason for editing is due to a spelling mistake because I cannot spell lol.

TEITS: Thanks for your post , recently I have noticed a lot of posts regarding different views regarding a Ian Brown and other current members having conflicting views in the past. My question is maybe without a 100% answer . Who was right? And are these synotics similar to this time. If memory serves me right it was when I first started looking in the background and have a vague recollection early feb 2012 maybe.

Many thanks mark

Edited December 17, 2014 by Mark wheeler

[snowangel32]

Very worrying looking at the GFS 18z control run at 240hrs. Very similar to the ECM 12z op. Maybe Matt Hugo's tweet will become reality after all! I hope tomorrow morning's 00z runs will contradict this post but I have a bad feeling about this one. And just to think that some people on here actually thought his account had been hacked, you have to laugh really! A classic case of people believing what they want to believe.

Yh totally agree there were some big similarities just hope that tomorrows runs don't follow the ecm. Going to be looking at 00zs runs tomoz from behind my sofa also worries me that the met office are not so enthusiastic as well now which ties in with If comments and matt hugos tweet. But can the gfs get it so spectacularly wrong at just 8 days away. Those pesky shortwaves are the bain to all coldies they never seem to help us. So hope its gone in the morning.

Edited December 17, 2014 by snowangel32

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

A great start by the GFS 0Z run from Xmas eve with a potent N' blast affecting all parts of the UK. A strong mid Atlantic ridge extending towards Greenland too!

Similar from the GFS P too -

Edited December 17, 2014 by prolongedSnowLover