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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter


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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Let's just remember with the charts if they look too good to be true then they probably are. If it does all come crashing down towards the weekend don't get too disheartend. Still plenty model output to come over next few months.

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    A few of you have asked today about rationale for the (tail-end of) UKMO latest 30-day outlook. There is, of course, a dedicated thread elsewhere for this but I'll just confirm that GloSea5 output rem

    Thanks for this Barry   You are however wrong on both counts you suggest :   1) I have explained in extended detail, as much as I am able, the progress of the patterns thus far from autumn (see firs

    Hopefully a timely interjection, but UKMO caution (again) that medium range NWP may not be adequately reflecting ultimate broadscale outcome. First tentative signs emerging, they suggest, of *possible

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Ian Fs thoughts would be good to hear, hard to get a good idea of most likely outcome as so many options. Long term nothing particularly great seems to be a possibility just yet, the best shot of cold does seem to be Xmas day or just after.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Potential for our first proper cold snap next week is growing and a white Christmas is a strong probability if we are in a cold NWly airflow mid to late next week which currently is the form horse. Let's not forget it will turn cold later this week too so mild weather is not bossing the outlook at all..could we have our first white Christmas for 4 years..fingers and toes crossed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    No Turkey for you now aj  :wink:

     

    The Models continue for a cold spell around Christmas, And are much keener to push aj's 'ridge' further North, There will be many variations over the coming days so Model watching at it's best.. Lets hope it builds to a prolonged cold spell, Or at least put's us somewhere for a better push. Tonight's runs will be interesting, Let's hope it keeps the theme. Nice to see the thread buzzing again  :)

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent

    The recently updated Meto 6-30 day forecast regards next weeks cold interlude as a snap followed by a return to a milder zonal flow. They also advise of temperatures around or Slightly above average and have removed the possibility of a colder incursion in the new year . Quite bizarre given the latest 12z cycle runs but emphasising again the need for monitoring trends rather than focussing on every run.

    Some clarity from "those in the know" would be most welcome at this juncture however ?

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    GFS ensembles show the Op wasn't an outlier. If anything it was on the warm side for the south!

    post-2036-0-23682300-1418754203_thumb.jp

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    Posted
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire

    Nice one Old Met Man, hope your hunch comes off against all odds. The fairly strong Baroclinic zonal developing to the north of the Azores high looks like creation of convergence and ultimiately the formation of low pressure system into Southern Britain that the GSF (PARA ) has aspired too over the latest runs. Not too un similar to what your instincts were a few days ago with a resultant NEer. Its a start.

    C

    Thanks Carinthian. Such situations can be very finely balanced. Quite rare are the classic setups like the one I mentioned the other day from 1978 - hell of a blizzard that was! Too often the warm Atlantic air will push into the cold air and win, not before dumping a load of snow. It's a shame they don't last longer!

    I'm curious really as to why the GFS keeps producing these kind of scenarios, even though they change run to run. Let's see how the models deal with the run up to Christmas, which is still itself a bit open at this stage.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    I post this muttering a few Hail Marys for the ECM but it could be a bit windy for the barby.

    Charts courtesy weatherbell

     

    post-12275-0-06914000-1418754275_thumb.p

    post-12275-0-72536100-1418754282_thumb.p

    post-12275-0-07235800-1418754351_thumb.p

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: London Waterloo 0m/ Leeds Bradford Airport 200m
  • Location: London Waterloo 0m/ Leeds Bradford Airport 200m

    Do you work for Weatherbell Knocker?

     

    Anyway a messy potentially wintry outlook ahead, the GFS looks shortwave mad and not particularly conclusive for snow further south. All dependent on the track of these features but going by past experience its rarely the south benefits from these setups, we definitely need these features to track as far south as possible for the south to get in on the fun but until then its Northern UK that may take the brunt of any wintry potential.

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    Posted
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain

    ECM run

     

    Yesterday

    ECH1-192_pra8.GIF

    Today

    ECH1-168_wxh8.GIF

     

    We can see how the vortex is placed in a much more favorable place for us

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Some previous EPS members showed similar developments (to NCEP-ENS) around 26-28th. Being watched, of course, albeit westerly mobility - with some NW (possibly more N'rly) phases as signalled across all suites, some more pronounced than others - characterises the anticipated broad closure of December. GloSea signals for reduced zonality by end of month has weakened, thus less confidence (which was already fairly low anyway) re early Jan. Nonetheless, we do expect some evidence for this (zonality waning) to remain but whether blocking per se emerges by/into early Jan is very unclear. That's it in a nutshell.

     

     

    Hi Ian, thanks for the update.

    Could you tell us how GloSea  has performed re Atlantic based blocking signal in recent past events?

    For example did the signal wax an wane at similar time-frames or was it stronger and more consistent?

     

    not related, JMA 192

     

    JN192-21.GIF?16-12

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Ellon 70m
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Ellon 70m

    Careful Knocker mate...you keep posting charts like that you may get a SACRA Membership....Nice charts to see tho...

    Edited by bigsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The recently updated Meto 6-30 day forecast regards next weeks cold interlude as a snap followed by a return to a milder zonal flow. They also advise of temperatures around or Slightly above average and have removed the possibility of a colder incursion in the new year . Quite bizarre given the latest 12z cycle runs but emphasising again the need for monitoring trends rather than focussing on every run.

    Some clarity from "those in the know" would be most welcome at this juncture however ?

     

    I am not in the know but the ensembles are basically showing the current pattern continuing till the end of December at least. However variations in the Atlantic/zonal flow may allow for more amplified ridges & troughs. The hi-res runs are hinting at that at the moment for around xmas week with possibly a Northerly/NW'ly, but at this range and with only some support from its ensembles, it could all change. In fact some of the op runs are showing (IMO) nearly the best case scenario for this setup, so downgrades are very likely.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Careful Knocker mate...you keep posting charts like that you may get a SACRA Membership....Nice charts to see tho...

     

    No problem bigsnow as I do like to pander to my 'fans' on occasion.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    omeone asked me did the anomaly charts show the start of the cold spell in 2009 or was it 2010, can you tell me which one please, lost your post, I 'think' I have found the data for 2010 in my files for a pdf?

    cheers

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    omeone asked me did the anomaly charts show the start of the cold spell in 2009 or was it 2010, can you tell me which one please, lost your post, I 'think' I have found the data for 2010 in my files for a pdf?

    cheers

     

    Hi

     

    It was 2010.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Ecm looks a bit flat at 240hrs with the high that bit to far west.Still not a bad set up imo but not in line with gfs ete

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