Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

[TonyH]

The GFS is quite different this run even by Sunday, 4c uppers replaced by -4c uppers in Scotland.....Thats a big change at relatively short range.

It's the kind of swing to expect in this set up.

[Ali1977]

Something is going crazy with the GFS...Huge Greeny high forming at day 9

[frosty ground]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2281.gif

A Chart that is full of potential for a cold blast down the line. 

[Snowman.]

Changes as early as T144 leads to some incredible potential later down the line.

 

[Ali1977]

Snow potential for many on XMAS day with the GFS P too....-6 uppers covering decent portion of the UK at 0700 on the day.

[Hocus Pocus]

Thank you Nick for that very informative post, even though I had to read it three times before it all sunk in. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Something is going crazy with the GFS...Huge Greeny high forming at day 9

 

Wouldn't say a huge greeny high, only 1035, only temporary feature, collapses in deep FI

[Swave Snow]

Wouldn't say a huge greeny high, only 1035, only temporary feature, collapses in deep FI

 

 

That why its called deep fi lol

[A.J]

06z, rubbish run, missing balloon data, one for the bin, waste of time and all the other things we've be told to remember about the 06z etc ........or maybe the 06z has a handle on things and some folk might see a white christmas after all? ..who knows??..........FI certainly provides some temporary eye candy with a couple of snow events as we approach the new year....

 

  

 

 

 

 

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Wouldn't say a huge greeny high, only 1035, only temporary feature, collapses in deep FI

Collapses?, You what lol

[Ali1977]

GFS P also introducing a nice high over Greenland, I know its FI buts its just nice to view some nice charts - knowing that the potential is there and METO also see that potential.

[Gavin Hannah]

Collapses?, You what lol

gfsnh-0-324.png

 

 

Now we're talking lol!!  It could be a very white New year and in to January.!

 

Also, is that a Polar Tri-Vortex????

Edited December 16, 2014 by IBringTheHammer

[Polar Maritime]

Yes a promising 6z, Maybe a white Christmas for some and beyond into the new year, Lets hope this continues in on the runs this evening. As Nick says a change is afoot, As to where/what is to be concluded.

Edited December 16, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[nick sussex]

Not liking this trend to develop a more west based negative NAO, as I mentioned last night cold in the UK is like England in a penalty shoot out! if it can go wrong it will!

 

The overall pattern is interesting however a block too far to the west is as useless as being stuck in a flat zonal pattern. Overall the models are all over the place as can be seen by the vast differences between the 06hrs and 00hrs outputs, I think we need alot more outputs to see where the dust might settle.

 

It's evident that some changes are afoot however its a confused picture as to what exactly that might lead to in terms of the Christmas weather.

[knocker]

I'm not sure where everyone is getting snow scenario on the P from. Of more interest on the  P (well for me anyway) is the track of the deepening depression regarding N. Scotland and the secondary low that forms. In any case as has already been mentioned the situation is so volatile it will be all change by the next run.

Edited December 16, 2014 by knocker

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Will we see this at anytime this winter?  Just thought I'd post this for some coldies to dream over....a getting colder and snowier scenario.

 

That is deep FI and Unfortunately we only 'know' this is coming which is close reliable...

 

It is Christmas though and the time for 'little miracles'

 

BFTP

Edited December 16, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[mulzy]

FI chart of the winter so far....

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&runpara=1&carte=1

[Gavin Hannah]

Will we see this at anytime this winter?  Just thought I'd post this for some coldies to dream over....a getting colder and snowier scenario.

 

 

BFTP

 

 

HP getting deeper still over Greenland, so while, yes it's out in FI, (flip flop), I think this could be the pattern change we need to keep an eye on for future runs. 

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

From WSI

Turning colder Christmas Eve & Christmas Day! Wintry showers in the north but questionable in the south!?!

[The Eagle]

Not liking this trend to develop a more west based negative NAO, as I mentioned last night cold in the UK is like England in a penalty shoot out! if it can go wrong it will!

 

 

 

100% agree. I would say a west based -NAO is a killer 8 times out of 10 over the years.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Collapses?, You what lol

gfsnh-0-324.png

 

parallel good, i meant 0perational

[carinthian]

Well its been hinting for a day or so now. The latest GFS (PARA) puts on a snowy scenario for New Year in the heart of the British Isles. Hope it gathers pace from today with more charts to come. You lot deserve a bit of festive cheer. Looks like being mild out here.

C

[Gavin Hannah]

It's amazing how much improve the mood can be in here after a single run lol.. Everyone, put the prozac down until at least the next run    

 

To be fair, the run did produce some very decent looking charts.  But I think the trend is definetly there going what I've seen over the last few runs. By the time we get to Xmas, I am not going to have any finger nails left lol.

[Banbury]

It's amazing how much improve the mood can be in here after a single run lol.. Everyone, put the prozac down until at least the next run    

 

To be fair, the run did produce some very decent looking charts.  But I think the trend is definetly there going what I've seen over the last few runs. By the time we get to Xmas, I am not going to have any finger nails left lol.

No its not, it happens every year no matter what weather forum you are on, here or on TWO, most chase the perfect winter

[IDO]

Looking at the GFS P for Christmas Day and comparing with the mean it was a big outlier:

 

 Mean:

 

And compared to the Control: 

 

Very little support for the GFS P from the mean around the time it sends WAA (t312):

 

 

 

Three members support the P Greeny Ridge but there has always been a small cluster in the GEFS for this the last few days, but no signal for it to develop; probably just a coincidence it has popped up in one of the hi-res runs, but it's the 06z so not too much of a shock.

Edited December 16, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...