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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter


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A few of you have asked today about rationale for the (tail-end of) UKMO latest 30-day outlook. There is, of course, a dedicated thread elsewhere for this but I'll just confirm that GloSea5 output rem

Thanks for this Barry   You are however wrong on both counts you suggest :   1) I have explained in extended detail, as much as I am able, the progress of the patterns thus far from autumn (see firs

Hopefully a timely interjection, but UKMO caution (again) that medium range NWP may not be adequately reflecting ultimate broadscale outcome. First tentative signs emerging, they suggest, of *possible

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    If we do get a pattern change it looks like it will just be the wrong side of Christmas for those who love to see snow falling outside as they tuck into their turkey but still a small chance we can squeeze enough amplification out of the pattern to at least bring in some colder air after a milder interlude in the run up to the big day. Green Christmas (no snow falling) seems likely but not quite a done deal, especially in the North though actual snow on the ground seems a very long shot except on the higher hills and further North still.

     

    I certainly won't complain if the ECM 10 day chart is firmed up upon though. 

    Not enough support as yet but model watching getting a little more exciting for cold weather fans as we enter the second half of the month.  :cold:  :clapping:

    Edited by Mucka
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  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

    you never no it could go from that to this in a  day or so it doesnt take long

     

    ECM1-240.GIFgens-3-1-300.png?12

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Not beyond the realms of possiblites. Tonights ECM show the possibilities for Christmas, signs of height rises over Newfoundland and up the west coast of Greenland. Colder air mass getting established over Scandinavia with first sign development as appears on latest ECM run @ 240 hours of low pressure system in mid Atlantic that could run across Southern Britain enhanced by a an increasingly stronger baroclinic zone in this latitude which would help to erode the Azores warmer sector flow and heights.

    C

    Are we looking at the same chart?

    Courtesy weatherbell

    post-12275-0-92736900-1418672820_thumb.p

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    If we do get a pattern change it looks like it will just be the wrong side of Christmas for those who love to see snow falling outside as they tuck into their turkey but still a small chance we can squeeze enough amplification out of the pattern to at least bring in some colder air after a milder interlude in the run up to the big day. Green Christmas (no snow falling) seems likely but not quite a done deal, especially in the North though actual snow on the ground seems a very long shot except on the higher hills and further North still.

     

    I certainly won't complain if the ECM 10 day chart is firmed up upon though. 

    Not enough support as yet but model watching getting a little more exciting for cold weather fans as we enter the second half of the month.  :cold:  :clapping:

    Theres no pattern change on the way, well not this side of Christmas! So the weather in the run up to Christmas and perhaps beyond , will be similar to what December has already provided. There will be some wintry weather away from some milder conditions at times with frost ,wind chill, sleet,snow . Models are still hinting at a rather cold Christmas day, so if youre a betting person where do you think the snow is likely to fall??? I think if youre in the North and West with some elevation then perhaps, if models are correct a white Christmas is possible, anyway if nothing else a fascinating  period of model watching! :cold:  :cc_confused:  :closedeyes:

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    post-6830-0-40941500-1418673246_thumb.pn

    post-6830-0-46196300-1418673299_thumb.gi

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham

    What is striking about the 47 and 62 charts is the -EPO ridge (similar to the ingredients building for the pattern change at the end of December)

    Evening all,

     

    Lots of talk regarding the Azores being a winter spoiler.Could be quite the opposite though as we can see from these three epic charts below,

     

     

    archivesnh-1947-1-4-0-0.png?

    archivesnh-1962-12-24-0-0.png

    archivesnh-2010-12-15-12-0.png?

     

     WAA from the Azores fuelled the above.We wont get a sustained HLB without it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

    Are we looking at the same chart?

    Courtesy weatherbell

     

    Well, maybe, maybe not....

     

    ECH100-240.GIF?15-0

     

    ECH101-240.GIF?15-0

    Edited by ukpaul
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    1963 started just the wrong side of Christmas. Boxing Day at 6pm. I remember looking out of the dining room windows and seeing the first snow flakes of that legendary winter fall.

     

    Ah lovely and of course you could have no idea of what was about to follow...

    It must have been an incredible winter to experience but at least younger folk got a taste of extreme winter weather in recent winters.

    I was actually alive back then, just not particularly aware of the fact :)

     

    I seem to remember back in the 70's and 80's we would often have a milder period toward and even into Christmas but get a cold blast and snow as we headed toward or into the New year but the memory is notoriously unreliable as a guide to past events and weather memories seem even more susceptible to errors. Not sure how it stacks up on actual historical charts.

     

    I guess we should keep our feet on the ground for now though as one ECM 10 day chart does not a winter make.

    JMA is not that far off though it is less amplified and any Atlantic ridging would be weaker than on ECM one expects.

     

    JN192-21.GIF?15-12

     

    It may be that we need more than one bite at the cherry and we don't get a true pattern change until into the New Year (dangerously assuming it will happen)

    But until tomorrows output I am going to dust off that crusty old phrase favoured by pragmatists and state that I am cautiously optimistic cold is on its way.

    Here is to another 63 (except in an alternate universe where everyone is kept safe and warm)

     

    Me? warm and fuzzy? Bah humbug!

    Edited by Mucka
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  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

    Well what?

     

    Full comment had been cut off, now restored.

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