Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

[Biggin]

It has a tendency to flatten in general because it has a tendency to be quick (which doesn't allow amplification to establish). the week 2 gefs all over the place. the only low spread being the west Iberian ridge. not great but the fact that there is a general lack of agreement between many members tells me that perhaps the suite needs to be allowed to settle ??? As ever, removing high heights in the wrong places for the uk to receive cold will be the problem.

I note that Exeter now less vague on a potential cold period come January being anti cyclonic in nature.

Yes an Ian F update soon ??

[carinthian]

I admire your optimism Carinthian but I am worried about how todays models have trended. So much so that a couple of carlings have been downed along with a huge slice of xmas cake! We need to see a better trend tomorrow.

I remember the TV advert of the bouncing bombs and those who drank Carling Black Label ( as it was known in those days ) saved the day from all that was thrown at them and that also I assume in your case is reading into todays models. Keep drinking the Carling and all will( weggehen),thats German for go away! in reference to mild outlook.

C

[Frosty.]

Evening folks! Nothing really changing tonight with regards ecm and gfs  with the continuation of the seasonal December. I really cannot  honestly say there is a big pattern change on the cards as well as Im a little confused why some on here are throwing in the towel with regards Winter!   Business as usual, indeed if the models are sniffing the coffee correctly  it could be a White Christmas in some places!!!!

I think u spok too soon :-)

[nick sussex]

I'm not sure I understand the reaction to tonights ECM run which broadly speaking is similar to the 00hrs, the GFS P delivers some interest but the ECM at T240hrs does look promising upstream especially with a stronger ridge pushing towards Alaska.

 

My concern was the models dropping the central USA troughing but generally this is agreed on so a stronger trend to develop some more amplification over there.

 

Overall regardless of the negative reaction caused by the ECM I think tonights outputs are okay.

 

By okay I mean passable in terms of something favourable popping up near Christmas, I know the Azores high is causing consternation but its inevitable for a few days until the pattern re-amplifies over the USA, it would be great to squeeze out some interim interest like the GFS P but the main thing IMO is the troughing digging into the central USA which will effect low heights over Greenland and eventually the Azores high.

Edited December 14, 2014 by nick sussex

[Frosty.]

The only thing that matters to me weatherwise is we get a shot at a white crimbo and with a nwly flow from greenland I think some of us will, let's hope countryfile option 1 is proved correct.

[Buxton Codge]

, I know the Azores high is causing consternation but its inevitable for a few days until the pattern re-amplifies over the USA, it would be great to squeeze out some interim interest like the GFS P but the main thing IMO is the troughing digging into the central USA which will effect low heights over Greenland and eventually the Azores high.

So far the Azores High has prevented the coldest weather from affecting the south. In fact the snow cover line seems to be where i live in Buxton with places further south having none so far this winter. Hopefully the 18z GFS will continue the wintry theme as we head into Christmas week

[Man With Beard]

ECM / GEFS ensembles means at T240 (24th December) : a few differences but many similarities. Both have pressure at 1020mb over the south coast and a decent 1030mb over Iberia. Such similarity usually means it will be close to the mark. So snow for the south around Christmas Eve, and probably therefore Christmas Day, must be odds against. Northern areas still in the running:

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

well it will be interesting looking at to-nights  models  things are changing  the north of the  UK could see snow now on Xmas  day after  that  its looking like its going to get colder !!

[nick sussex]

So far the Azores High has prevented the coldest weather from affecting the south. In fact the snow cover line seems to be where i live in Buxton with places further south having none so far this winter. Hopefully the 18z GFS will continue the wintry theme as we head into Christmas week

Yes its certainly been a case of a north/south split. I think sometimes people in here can view the Azores high as some entity that just sets up shop and drives coldies mad and that its somehow got this protective bubble, its really just a result of the overall pattern.

[Frosty.]

I think more runs are needed but we have our best chance of a white Xmas since 2010 although any similarity to Dec 2010 ends right there of course but we have hints that early next year could flip the magic switch to a more arctic pattern..I pray for the south to see some of the snow Scotland has had so far by the time we reach Christmas.

[Gavin Hannah]

Well, it looks like it could very interesting right around Xmas Eve/Day.  I am more than happy to endure a few milder days with the azores high if it means that there is a high chance of the white stuff on Xmas day. Also, just looking at that time frame on the 850 charts, alot of purple pooling just to our north, which, can never be a bad thing I suspect.  (Now where did I put my ramp.....)

[snowice]

Yes its certainly been a case of a north/south split. I think sometimes people in here can view the Azores high as some entity that just sets up shop and drives coldies mad and that its somehow got this protective bubble, its really just a result of the overall pattern.

Yes it looks like we are stuck with the Azores for another 10days or so.I would like the ecm to show a shift in the comming days, the azores high reminds me of my annoying aunt once she arrives I can't wait for here to go?

[knocker]

The latest bulletin from tonight's anomalies is that hope in the search for the elusive 'signal' is fading. It's thought probable that it will be scaled down until the New Year.

 

The NOAA 6-10 has a weakish trough Scandinavia, HP to the SW and NE N. America and eastern Pacific with another weakish trough off the eastern seaboard. The GFS and ECM has essentially the same analysis with minor variations. So no change in the general pattern

 

Surface analysis LP to NW and HP to SW with no blocking vis a vis Greenland with the route still open for depressions spawned off the eastern seaboard to travel north east continuing the Pm/Tm split over the UK with temps fluctuating around the average.

 

The longer time frame perhaps the Scandinavian trough moving a tad east, a slight retraction of the Azores HP and intensification of the Alaska ridge but a flatter pattern over the US  So nothing particularly significant surface wise and no sign of any cold incursion.

 

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited December 14, 2014 by knocker

[blizzard81]

I remember the TV advert of the bouncing bombs and those who drank Carling Black Label ( as it was known in those days ) saved the day from all that was thrown at them and that also I assume in your case is reading into todays models. Keep drinking the Carling and all will( weggehen),thats German for go away! in reference to mild outlook.
C

I remember that well ha ha. When adverts were entertaining  I already feel more positive about tomorrow's output

[Ali1977]

Not a great put run, all looking pretty standard and not cold to day 10...was hoping the signal would last longer than 24 hours!

[blizzard81]

The trend of the day is definitely the strengthening of the Iberian/France high in to week 2 and this trend has now carried on to the

GFS & GFSP 18z runs. What I want to see on tomorrow's runs is this ridge to be watered down because once it is place, it can be

incredibly stubborn and difficult to remove. In fact I wouldn't mind if this ridge pushed into the British Isles to give us some nice

anticyclonic frosty weather for Xmas. Looking at today's output, i think that's the best us coldies are going to get during Christmas and

maybe this is what the Meto are hinting at as we approach and go into the New Year.

Edited December 14, 2014 by blizzard81

[Ali1977]

The trend of the day is definitely the strengthening of the Iberian/France high in to week 2 and this trend has now carried on to the

GFS & GFSP 18z runs. What I want to see on tomorrow's runs is this ridge to be watered down because once it is place, it can be

incredibly stubborn and difficult to remove.

Agreed, And horrific for all those hoping for good skiing in France...including me in 3 weeks!!!

[Buxton Codge]

18z Christmas looks mild

[Jason M]

The trend of the day is definitely the strengthening of the Iberian/France high in to week 2 and this trend has now carried on to the

GFS & GFSP 18z runs. What I want to see on tomorrow's runs is this ridge to be watered down because once it is place, it can be

incredibly stubborn and difficult to remove.

 

Yep, I'd agree with than. I recall it wiping out Jan and Feb 2011 following the Dec 2010 cold spell. Usually the end game with an Iberian ridge is a lump of PV sat in the mid atlantic. Of course the 'driver' is the PV but once you get to that point its the old 'chicken and egg' scenario for the difference it makes.

 

Lets see what the GEFS say and maybe wait until the morning runs before giving up. Otherwise we are maybe looking at adjusting our sights into early Jan.

[johnholmes]

 

 

By okay I mean passable in terms of something favourable popping up near Christmas, I know the Azores high is causing consternation but its inevitable for a few days until the pattern re-amplifies over the USA, it would be great to squeeze out some interim interest like the GFS P but the main thing IMO is the troughing digging into the central USA which will effect low heights over Greenland and eventually the Azores high.

 

Lots of 'likes' for this post from Nick but the reality is there is CURRENTLY little in any of the more reliable models, yep the b anomaly charts that yet suggests any marked change by Christmas, a bit less than 2 weeks away. I made the following note having looked closely at the latest NOAA 8-14 output, take it or leave it but I would be very surprised if a major pattern shift occurred before Christmas in the upper air

 

Noaa Sunday 14 December 2014 notes

6-10 and there are no marked differences from previous outputs to me; the +ve area wsw of uk is a shade nearer but the overall ridge-trough positions etc looks the same

8-14 in most aspects the same as before, the only change is the +ve area has increased from the azores +ve area, as it was a few days ago, to now extend from the area well west of Iberia to include a +90dm anomaly into ne America and sw Greenland. Remains to be seen if this is significant-currently no sign at all of the flow into the uk veering to a more n of west flow-this takes us to 28 dec!

[Carlrg]

That Iberian HP is on steroids and looks like it will be a party pooper over the festive season. 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=240&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&archive=0

 

 Scotland will be colder but according to the precip charts, they won't be getting a cigar off Santa. 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=2&carte=0

 

All in FI so not set in stone.

Edited December 14, 2014 by Carlrg

[MR EXTREMES]

It's so horrific from the gfs 18z four hours after the 12z run its Prozac time.

Be different tomorrow might be mild Christmas might snow might be frosty might be toasty but few days more we will know a little more.

[snowangel32]

A horror show from the pub run for coldies its a blink and you will miss it scenario. Azores high seems to be getting stronger bad for us and the alps. And the worst thing off all is this run shoots our white xmas hopes down in flames. We all need to pray that this dosen,t verify.

[johnholmes]

Lots of 'likes' for this post from Nick but the reality is there is CURRENTLY little in any of the more reliable models, yep the b anomaly charts that yet suggests any marked change by Christmas, a bit less than 2 weeks away. I made the following note having looked closely at the latest NOAA 8-14 output, take it or leave it but I would be very surprised if a major pattern shift occurred before Christmas in the upper air

 

Noaa Sunday 14 December 2014 notes

6-10 and there are no marked differences from previous outputs to me; the +ve area wsw of uk is a shade nearer but the overall ridge-trough positions etc looks the same

8-14 in most aspects the same as before, the only change is the +ve area has increased from the azores +ve area, as it was a few days ago, to now extend from the area well west of Iberia to include a +90dm anomaly into ne America and sw Greenland. Remains to be seen if this is significant-currently no sign at all of the flow into the uk veering to a more n of west flow-this takes us to 28 dec!

having just been told of the post from Ian F re the latest Met thinking and it looks pretty similar. Indeed the quotes look like the probability is very low for any change before the New Year. Looking also at their 16-30 day outlook the change in phrasing towards the end  :-

This is the most likely scenario throughout the period until mid January, however there is also the potential for a slightly more settled, and colder spell to develop from early January.

Not got the actual one for a day or two ago but the emphasis seems to have changed on the 'type' of cold as well as the possible start date?

[cyclonic happiness]

A horror show from the pub run for coldies its a blink and you will miss it scenario. Azores high seems to be getting stronger bad for us and the alps. And the worst thing off all is this run shoots our white xmas hopes down in flames. We all need to pray that this dosen,t verify.

The good thing is that the pub run is famous for showing outrageously cold blizzards, easterlies, storms etc, which plenty more often than not, never happen.

 

I trust there's a good cold spell coming when there is absolutely none forecast in the models, especially the 18z :-)