Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

[Eugene]

12z ECM is not the best to be honest with high pressure just to close to the UK. Hopefully an outlier

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

 

 

Its not an outlier tonight though, we need a miracle now to escape such a pattern, hopefully its transient.

[Swave Snow]

Its not an outlier tonight though, we need a miracle now to escape such a pattern, hopefully its transient.

 

 

How do you know it is not an outlier?

[Mark Neal.]

Its not an outlier tonight though, we need a miracle now to escape such a pattern, hopefully its transient.

ECM ensembles should be out within the hour, should see where it sits in the Ensembles suite;

[terrier]

At least the output is better than last year. ECM keeps us dry and settled. Unlike the storms of last December. Think a lot of people would take that chart that got badly flooded.

[Jason M]

How do you know it is not an outlier?

Because the GEFS have plenty of similar charts at day 10.

Slightly disappointing charts this evening. I suspect a pattern change is going to occur but maybe looking more to the turn of the year rather than Christmas. We just can't shift the residual heights over Iberia and until they go there is very little chance of anything notable.

[carinthian]

12z ECM is not the best to be honest with high pressure just to close to the UK. Hopefully an outlier

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

Quite a big difference this evening between the UKMO and ECM. The latter shows a flat zonal flow at 144hrs with surface pressure 10mb higher across all latitudes of the British Isles compared to the UKMO. The UKMO brings some Arctic sourced air for a time into the NE of the UK with a more pronounced Scandinavian trough than shown by the ECM. Disregard the latest milder ECM as I think its a outlier run.

C

[mushymanrob]

How do you know it is not an outlier?

Because its not alone. Others runs suppport something like this.

[karyo]

Quite a big difference this evening between the UKMO and ECM. The latter shows a flat zonal flow at 144hrs with surface pressure 10mb higher across all latitudes of the British Isles compared to the UKMO. The UKMO brings some Arctic sourced air for a time into the NE of the UK with a more pronounced Scandinavian trough than shown by the ECM. Disregard the latest milder ECM as I think its a outlier run.

C

But the UKMO has been prone to overamplification at the 120-144 hour timeframe time and time again this season.

[A.J]

again, for LRF fans, long range modelling continues with their theme for blocking in January through to the end of Feb. A solid continental block suggesting cool, but relatively benign conditions.........and ending up with the following eye candy..........and it all starts, interestingly enough with a similar solution to tonight's, on face value, poor ECM........hey, we can hope......cant' we?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[blizzard81]

Quite a big difference this evening between the UKMO and ECM. The latter shows a flat zonal flow at 144hrs with surface pressure 10mb higher across all latitudes of the British Isles compared to the UKMO. The UKMO brings some Arctic sourced air for a time into the NE of the UK with a more pronounced Scandinavian trough than shown by the ECM. Disregard the latest milder ECM as I think its a outlier run.C

I admire your optimism Carinthian but I am worried about how todays models have trended. So much so that a couple of carlings have been downed along with a huge slice of xmas cake! We need to see a better trend tomorrow.

[Snowman.]

Sadly that's the trend that we have in front of us for the reliable timeframe. I was focusing on next weekend in case a little more amplification could give us a better northwesterly shot but that's gone downhill too.

 

You're also forgetting the trend to amplify the pacific, the atlantic and create heights into greenland/polar regions, jet push further south along with the nao/ao going into the negative phase which reflect on the models and the continued wave 1 attacks and the sense of a pattern change coming up.

[karyo]

You're also forgetting the trend to amplify the pacific, the atlantic and create heights into greenland/polar regions, jet push further south along with the nao/ao going into the negative phase which reflect on the models and the continued wave 1 attacks and the sense of a pattern change coming up.

That's at the end of the GFS run i.e. distant FI. The trend is the reliable and semi reliable timeframe is worse than 24 hours ago. The end of GFS can show an ice age or a heatwave but I won't take notice until it comes in the +200 hours range.

[Banbury]

Its not an outlier tonight though, we need a miracle now to escape such a pattern, hopefully its transient.

10 days out , nothing is set in stone that far out, plenty of time for change

[legritter]

I must admit my optimism has waned as the day has progressed. The over riding trend as the day has gone on is for that persistent high over Iberia to grow in strength. I remember many a winter when all the dream synoptics are in place only for everything to be scuppered by the beast from the south.

thats the  problem with Meteorology ,like the jigsaw puzzle not complete till the last piece slips into place whether it be azores high ,iceland low ,southern euro slug or all the synoptics  coming together pattern wise in mid july ,frustrating yes but a good bet at ten days range we know any current charts will be differently positioned .hoping we can see high pressure take over the roost ok it might turn dry but could just glide into the perfect position for deep cold .todays charts are showing some possibilitys but i feel with current possible pattern change around the new year we will have to wait till atleast midweek before we start seeing some ideal charts .It takes time i,m willing to wait a while ,and yes im going to crack open a Carling ,  

[Snowman.]

That's at the end of the GFS run i.e. distant FI. The trend is the reliable and semi reliable timeframe is worse than 24 hours ago. The end of GFS can show an ice age or a heatwave but I won't take notice until it comes in the +200 hours range.

 

What was the trend 24hrs ago?

[blizzard81]

thats the  problem with Meteorology ,like the jigsaw puzzle not complete till the last piece slips into place whether it be azores high ,iceland low ,southern euro slug or all the synoptics  coming together pattern wise in mid july ,frustrating yes but a good bet at ten days range we know any current charts will be differently positioned .hoping we can see high pressure take over the roost ok it might turn dry but could just glide into the perfect position for deep cold .todays charts are showing some possibilitys but i feel with current possible pattern change around the new year we will have to wait till atleast midweek before we start seeing some ideal charts .It takes time i,m willing to wait a while ,and yes im going to crack open a Carling ,  

Ha ha, the carlings will ease the pain of tonight's ops. Apart from the GFSP which wasn't too bad I suppose

Edited December 14, 2014 by blizzard81

[carinthian]

But the UKMO has been prone to overamplification at the 120-144 hour timeframe time and time again this season.

Yes, may be so, however they still forecast average to slightly below average in the forecast period concerned. The ECM values would be well above average. The latest ECM goes flat too quickly with a faster rise of pressure to the south. It just does not look right in my eyes. The UKMO has been very consistent in its forecast modes to period 144hours with only limited milder periods. Colder intrusions are still likely in their forecast period. ECM says no on tonights latest run.

C

[gottolovethisweather]

Just popped in here to read the last couple of pages and wondered whether it is a buy one one liner posting and get one free in here tonight?  

 

 

 

Anyway, my take on the next week or so with a bit more substance is as follows. I would suggest anything beyond D6 is likely to have small ramifications on the overall NH pattern, if not at least, the British Isles situation, thereby I am largely concentrating on the shorter-term. The longer-term of course, although subject to change isn't a bad picture IMHO.

 

• Cool to average and largely sunny and dry away from the PM air currently affecting the NW during the next couple of days. 
• By midweek, the Westerlies kick in, which in turn brings a milder flow to pretty much all parts of the UK. Some horrendous (well subjectively speaking for me they are) maximum Temperatures forecast. With the South of England and not exclusively so, set to reach the low teens by way of Celsius, towards the high fifties in terms of Fahrenheit. 
• By the very end of the working week, things cool down back to normal levels, thereafter my forecast confidence wanes, by which time I anticipate the far South should become drier and frosty by night with Temperatures near normal but suppressed under any cloud, the far NW should continue with their current theme of wintry showers and much cooler T850s.

 

Christmas is but 11 days away and only by the end of this upcoming working week will we have any idea as to what the surface conditions will be.

Edited December 14, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Frosty.]

Looking at Christmas week there are two options on the table, the first being for a Scandinavian trough with high pressure to the southwest and the UK in a run of cold northwesterly winds with wintry showers and night frosts. Option two is for high pressure centred just to the south with a milder Atlantic flow..I will go for option 1 which brings the chance of a white Christmas and a happy New year for coldies all over the UK. :-)

Edited December 14, 2014 by Frosty.

[phil nw.]

Well I did say in my earlier post when commenting on the GFSp, that the current pattern wasn,t primed for Arctic blocking but I didn't, expect the ECM horror show!

A totally different jet profile,flat, keeping much of the cold air bottled up over the Arctic.

At least the GFSp gave us some ridging and some cold pm shots.

We can only hope the ECM op run was a mild one wrt the stronger influence of the Azores high and it trends towards the GFS view tomorrow.

[fergieweather]

Its not an outlier tonight though, we need a miracle now to escape such a pattern, hopefully its transient.

12z EC-EPS awaited, but nothing surprising in broad output... the DET remains in keeping with Exeter's thoughts from today's earlier analysis looking into the 10-15d period:

"... 00z DECIDER products still indicate remarkably low levels of (Shannon) entropy throughout the f/c period, corresponding to relatively high levels of confidence in the associated forecast (zonal) pattern. Examination of latest circulation biases indicate some weakening of the strong westerly component into the trend period, although mobility from the western quadrant is still indicated."

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening folks! Nothing really changing tonight with regards ecm and gfs  with the continuation of the seasonal December. I really cannot  honestly say there is a big pattern change on the cards as well as Im a little confused why some on here are throwing in the towel with regards Winter!   Business as usual, indeed if the models are sniffing the coffee correctly  it could be a White Christmas in some places!!!!

Edited December 14, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[Barry12]

Evening all,

 

If the GFS P is correct then any mild weather will be very short lived, with cold and wintry weather featuring over the Christmas period. December would surely finish as below average, which would mean most seasonal models were incorrect about December. If so, then I don't think we need to worry to much about the seasonal models predictions for the rest of Winter.

 

 

[bluearmy]

ECM op not interested in amplifying a week on Monday to our ne as per the 00z spreads. That usually means that the spreads are unlikely to be right. I expect the same spread but a lot less intense on the 12z suite.

extended ECM is where I'm looking to see if the same anomoly pattern is maintained

[Tom Quintavalle]

12z EC-EPS awaited, but nothing surprising in broad output... the DET remains in keeping with Exeter's thoughts from today's earlier analysis looking into the 10-15d period:

"... 00z DECIDER products still indicate remarkably low levels of (Shannon) entropy throughout the f/c period, corresponding to relatively high levels of confidence in the associated forecast (zonal) pattern. Examination of latest circulation biases indicate some weakening of the strong westerly component into the trend period, although mobility from the western quadrant is still indicated."

 

Indeed Ian and "Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose", on the model thread, with high levels of vicissitude the order of the day, resulting in a graveyard of kneejerk reaction. Patience more than ever the watchword! Simple innit!

 

Tom.