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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter


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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Pretty poor start to the mo today from a coldie point of view.fi shows the pv gaining strength and a flat zonal look to things.hopefully any change in thn nh pattern should it happen will start to appear in the charts ???

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    A few of you have asked today about rationale for the (tail-end of) UKMO latest 30-day outlook. There is, of course, a dedicated thread elsewhere for this but I'll just confirm that GloSea5 output rem

    Thanks for this Barry   You are however wrong on both counts you suggest :   1) I have explained in extended detail, as much as I am able, the progress of the patterns thus far from autumn (see firs

    Hopefully a timely interjection, but UKMO caution (again) that medium range NWP may not be adequately reflecting ultimate broadscale outcome. First tentative signs emerging, they suggest, of *possible

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Starting to think the METO may soon deliver the news that their models have now gone away from thinking a pattern change could happen towards New Year. There is nothing in the charts to suggest a change this morning. That euro high seems to be a persistent one, not one skiers are enjoying neither!!

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    Looking through GEFS this morning there is more scatter than has been the case recently and from a slightly earlier timeframe ie day 10 or thereabouts. We even manage a few genuinely cold charts deeper in FI.

    The opp runs are being given too much credence by some IMHO. From days 8 and 9 they should just be treated as ensemble members really. Also, a bit too much use of the mean charts sometimes as they are of little use IMO once you get deep into FI. It's better to look at the individual charts within the GEFS for a better picture. I noticed that fergie made a similar point a few days ago.

    Def more amplification in the GEFS this morning. Not saying they are great charts, but the current pattern looks less solid from about day 10 to me.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    itll be very interesting to see if stratospheric warming actually does bring about a major pattern change. being uneducated in these dynamics i remain sceptical until i see something in the reliable/semi reliable. and i dont mean that as any disrespect to the members who do have an understanding of the strat warming consequences, and that applies no matter what weather type such an event might produce.

    Well, the stratospheric warming needs to happen first before we have a chance at a colder outlook. According to the MERRA site, the stratospheric temperatures at 50hpa level are about average now. 

     

    http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t90n_50_2014_merra.pdf

     

    It seems to me that low pressure has a love affair with southern Greenland and Iceland this season and it will take something major to shift it. A SSW could achieve this when/if it happens but we could be here waiting for it in a month's time.

     

    Karyo

    Edited by karyo
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Well, the stratospheric warming needs to happen first before we have a chance at a colder outlook. According to the MERRA site, the stratospheric temperatures at 50hpa level are about average now. 

     

    http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t90n_50_2014_merra.pdf

     

    It seems to me that low pressure has a love affair with southern Greenland and Iceland this season and it will take something major to shoft it. A SSW could achieve this when/if it happens but we could be here waiting for it in a month's time.

     

    Karyo

    We will have to see the result of the Alaskan ridge, will we get the lobe over Greenland to displace and sink into Eastern Canada/US which will allow a ridge in the Atlantic to develop. It would be an example of both the US and NW Europe going cold around the same time and it looks the most likely route to cold at the moment. Lets see how the anomalies for the week between Christmas and New Year develop over the coming days.

    Before then, conditions look rather average with some milder and cooler spells as the Azores high rolls around just off the West Iberian coast. As for Christmas day, chance of snow in southern and eastern areas looks slim at the moment, but northern and western areas could fluke snow if we sit in the PM airmass on the big day.

    Edited by Captain shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Naefs is a bit more aggressive on the anomolys with the period post Boxing Day showing mid Atlantic ridge into s greeny and euro trough. The uppers spreads don't reveal anything very wintry though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    Naefs is a bit more aggressive on the anomolys with the period post Boxing Day showing mid Atlantic ridge into s greeny and euro trough. The uppers spreads don't reveal anything very wintry though.

     

     

    That's the equivalent of eye candy from the NAEFS...

     

     

     

    ...with the control run from the GEM putting some meat on the bones. :D

     

     

     

    edited to include correct naefs chart.

    Edited by Cloud 10
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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Well, the stratospheric warming needs to happen first before we have a chance at a colder outlook. According to the MERRA site, the stratospheric temperatures at 50hpa level are about average now. 

    Don't usually post in here, but saw this and just thought I should mention, although it does significantly increase our chances of colder weather, we don't actually need a SSW in order for us to get it.

    Unless, of course, you're talking about your personal opinion on this winters happenings, then apologies :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    The 6z shows some pretty cold N/W Pm shots digging South from around the 20th. Giving Snow showers from the Midlands North.

     

     Steve M..Why especially the 06z GFSP over the GFS?

     

    npsh500.pngh500slp.pngh850t850eu.png

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    Impressive swing to cold in the midterm ( 144-180) on the GFS 6z ( pity its the 06) & especially the 06z (p)

     

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2014121306/gfsnh-0-168.png?6

     

    *patience* !!

     

    S

    Yes Steve, pity the ECM 00z downgraded it though.
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    gfsnh-0-336.png?6

     

    No to shabby.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    East coast USA looks set to head into the freezer between Xmas and New Year... Is this a good or bad thing?? last year this proved to be bad for the Uk!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    While no signs of deep cold are apparent on the models yet, I do kinda feel that it may still take another few days or so before the models start showing much different outcomes (although some people on here had mentioned some of the extended ensembles showing indications of a possible change already). Some of the coldest Winters of the last century (such as Winter 1946/47) were invaded by periods of Atlantic drivern weather during December, but then suddenly switched to colder, blocked outcomes later on. Even the slightly below average Winter of 2012/13 with its Atlantic dominated December lead to cold, blocked periods with High Pressure to the North for parts of Jamuary (and especially in March). It's true, though, that this Winter may just decide to take a different route as not all Winters are, off course, the same. But I suppose if signs of a possible Stratospheric Warming event continue to occur towards the New Year or something, then I I guess the models will probably have to change to a different sort of pattern at some point. There's clearly no 100% guarantee that the pathway to colder weather will happen, especially if the possible pattern change turns out to be unfavourable for cold - E.g: getting a Greenland High that doesn't deliver cold to the UK thanks to stubborn High Pressure also occupying the South-East of the UK disallowing a cold flow to develop from the North or East.

    It does seem, for now, that we'll likely continue with the Westerly dominated pattern - something that the NOAA 8 - 14 day 500mb anomaly outlook, posted by mushymanrob earlier, is continuing to be keen on. Further cold Polar Maritime flows do certainly look possible with chances of wintry showers for North-Western areas at times. Particularly on hills. I think, though, if some of the models, such as the 06Z GFS continue with some height rises towards Greenland near the end of the run, and also if some of the extended ensembles continue to show signs of the pattern possibly changing and/or becoming increasingly amplified, then it could definitely start getting quite interesting for the cold and snow fans. Would be ideal to also have anomaly charts, such as those from the NOAA, to be on board, too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Presumably you mean for for potential afterwards, because to my untrained eye it looks like a SW flow with rather mild temperatures

     

    I was looking at the bigger picture.

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    Posted
  • Location: Buxton, Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Buxton, Peak District

    East coast USA looks set to head into the freezer between Xmas and New Year... Is this a good or bad thing?? last year this proved to be bad for the Uk!!!

     

    Accuweather are expecting the Eastern States to go into the Freezer by end of this month which will fire up the jet across the Atlantic. Early days, but I would expect January to be a stormy one across Northern Europe similar to January 2014

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    GEFS defo showing signs of ridging into Greenland in FI on latest run, one to watch.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    Control.

     

    gensnh-0-1-384.png?6

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    GEFS defo showing signs of ridging into Greenland in FI on latest run, one to watch.

    There is something afoot around the turn of the year.A foot of what though? :cold:

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=384

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=384

      The majority are trying to send a ridge poleward in some way.

    Edited by winterof79
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