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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter


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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

    Yes, albeit with the caveats of uncertainty previously expressed..

    Expect the broadly W to NW flow bias to dominate through next 10-15 days with good broad confidence. Towards end of this trend period, both some MOGREPS and EC members (n.b. bear in mind we always follow postage stamps closely, rather than just ENS mean, as latter tends to become skewed by leaning towards the climatological more 'energetic' influence eventually, i.e. prevailing westerly/zonal) hinting at height rises initially to S / W / E (varied emphasis thereof) of the UK, with some recent longer-range NCEP-GFS members also suggestive of same signal. This may, or may not, prove to be an initial phase of a zonal relaxation or subsequent complete reversal but mechanism for this is enigmatic, noting a continued GloSea signal (post-d15) for some northerly blocking solutions appearing amongst members into end December-early Jan.

    Thanks for this insight ,every little bit of info helps when studying the models .it will be interesting to see some future model runs hinting at perhaps some definate pressure change but i fully expect it will take some time ,or the possibility of a sudden change of the models .It can be frustrating whilst looking for cold but i have conditioned myself now to looking at several runs together  and repeating to myself, Tomorrow a new day and more new Updated data and that Models are not mystic Megs ,mother nature is full of surprises .Meteorology as moved on in the last 30 years ,back then a new 120hr updated fax chart would arrive from the weather centre most days by Post ,now the touch of a key board, presto ,but the uncertainty certainly makes for interesting hunting in our search for cold [snowy ]Synoptics ,tonights ECM eagerly awaited , :cold: wrapping up for now cheers  :drinks:

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    A few of you have asked today about rationale for the (tail-end of) UKMO latest 30-day outlook. There is, of course, a dedicated thread elsewhere for this but I'll just confirm that GloSea5 output rem

    Thanks for this Barry   You are however wrong on both counts you suggest :   1) I have explained in extended detail, as much as I am able, the progress of the patterns thus far from autumn (see firs

    Hopefully a timely interjection, but UKMO caution (again) that medium range NWP may not be adequately reflecting ultimate broadscale outcome. First tentative signs emerging, they suggest, of *possible

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    Referring to the Mark Vogan post- snow chart

    Could someone explain to me as being a novice I'm confused with this- to me this implies that us even in the southeast are at risk of atleast a cm or so of the white stuff in a couple of days. Several gfs runs I've been watching have mentioned up to 50-60% risk for Saturday earlier In the week too. Yet the met etc haven't forecasted any

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Referring to the Mark Vogan post- snow chart

    Could someone explain to me as being a novice I'm confused with this- to me this implies that us even in the southeast are at risk of atleast a cm or so of the white stuff in a couple of days. Several gfs runs I've been watching have mentioned up to 50-60% risk for Saturday earlier In the week too. Yet the met etc haven't forecasted any

    Going by the charts the parameters look good but there's little or no PPN - we will see as ever. :)
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Referring to the Mark Vogan post- snow chart

    Could someone explain to me as being a novice I'm confused with this- to me this implies that us even in the southeast are at risk of atleast a cm or so of the white stuff in a couple of days. Several gfs runs I've been watching have mentioned up to 50-60% risk for Saturday earlier In the week too. Yet the met etc haven't forecasted any

    Hi Kent, You will find the meto have much more data at hand than us, So they are able to draw up a much more precise forecast. The GFS snow charts can be very sketchy when used on there own, As there are so many local signals for it to consider when snow is involved.

    John did a good Snow Forecasting guide which is a good read, If you can find it..

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL

    Promising Low after Low spawning from Greenland

     

    post-6879-0-18700800-1418318679_thumb.pn

     

    post-6879-0-23660900-1418318690_thumb.pn

     

    Strong HP holding firm until.....

     

    post-6879-0-16149100-1418318743_thumb.pn

     

    ian

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Thing that interests me over he next week to 10 days is how the emphasiss of the warm sector/ cold areas change re period forecast.

    So far this month, we've seen the flow become that bit more amplified pre day 6/7 thus the predicted less cool/poss mild period is cut down to one or perhaps 2 days with the colder air being extended at both ends.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent

    Promising Low after Low spawning from Greenland

     

    attachicon.gifh500slp.png

     

    attachicon.gifh500slpCAC9AEMM.png

     

    Strong HP holding firm until.....

     

    attachicon.gifh500slpCAP63PD1.png

     

    ian

    Azores high on the move :( ???

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    GFS 12z ensembles an improvement on this mornings set for FI prospects IMO - at least as far as getting some temporary cold across our shores in what will essentially be a mobile flow.

    The only weak signal I see within them for a pattern change is height rises somewhere in our region (either over the UK or to our West) as we head toward Christmas (so toward and into final week of Dec) but this not well defined and somewhat muted. I guess that would tie in with Fergies comments earlier though hopefully the signal is stronger in the data he has (extended ECM, MOGREPS) than the current GFS ensemble suite.

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Just with half an eye on developments day 12-14 - the GFS ensembles are starting to show 2 or 3 runs with rather a large -EPO ridge developing into the pole...

     

    one to keep an eye on & would certainly support the large scale pattern change across the pole

     

    heres an example- I wonder if there was any support from the 288 -324 ECM clusters...

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=360&code=11&mode=0&carte=1

    S

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Just with half an eye on developments day 12-14 - the GFS ensembles are starting to show 2 or 3 runs with rather a large -EPO ridge developing into the pole...

     

    one to keep an eye on & would certainly support the large scale pattern change across the pole

     

    heres an example- I wonder if there was any support from the 288 -324 ECM clusters...

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=360&code=11&mode=0&carte=1

    S

     

    Good spot. Several members go for it in deep FI which at that range is a pretty strong signal. Any support from ECM clusters would be intriguing, especially since there is a weak signal for height rises in the North Atlantic region around the same time. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    He could be right but not a source I would rely on :)

     

    Whatever your opinions of the source of the information, the graphic is from the pro section (subscription) of Accuweather - hardly an insignificant solo, amateur player. :nonono:

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    According to latest Euro4 low level snow anywhere but further North (ie Scotland) is very unlikely over next 36h but the hills could get a pasting.

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
  • Weather Preferences: very cold or very hot
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd

    According to latest Euro4 low level snow anywhere but further North (ie Scotland) is very unlikely over next 36h but the hills could get a pasting.

    I think northern England and northern Wales may see snow down to 200 ft ish. Let's see

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

    Whatever your opinions of the source of the information, the graphic is from the pro section (subscription) of Accuweather - hardly an insignificant solo, amateur player. :nonono:

    Fair enough but I personally would nt publicise Vogan :)

    Oops just did :diablo:

    Edited by TonyH
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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    Surprised no comment on the ECM tonight. Potential for some quite mild weather as we head up to Christmas

     

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

    Yes always a risk of a cool Atlantic pattern turning milder if the Azores high noses north like that chart.This is something a number of us have already alluded to wrt the movement of the AH.

    However it is at day 10 and with the cold air sitting quite close to the north it wouldn't take much ridging in the Atlantic to see a much colder scenario come the day.

    A very mobile pattern and one that can change the balance of cold and milder day to day in the forecast.

     

    Edit.

    Just seen your post Polar Warsaw -that's very sad re your friend-it does indeed focus on the important things in life.

    Edited by phil nw.
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    ??

     

    They have used the GloSea5 model for the wording of there outlook

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Reliable timeframe - more of the same from the models, temps near average in the main, further bouts of rain and wind from the NW and wintry showers/snow on higher ground in the north after the next 36 hour temporary colder period.

     

    There is no reason not to expect this pattern to continue - hence any attempt by the azores high eastwards I suspect will be thwarted by energy from the NW, don't be surprised if the models tomorrow and weekend back away from this scenario.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    ??

    Gloaea5 has high resolution in the strat and is currently projecting some HLB onto the new year. Probably as a result of forecast events in the strat during week 2.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    At the risk of somebody saying since the end of last year, how long has there been a bias corrected version of gefs on meteociel???

    Anyway, I am liking member 11, a not insignificant high pressure cell of 1050 sat off the pole becomes a rather toasty 1060mb

    post-5114-0-64207600-1418328688_thumb.jp

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

    Surprised no comment on the ECM tonight. Potential for some quite mild weather as we head up to Christmas

     

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

    Hit the nail on the head there Codgy boy......................potential and as always with a day 10 chart that is all you can say, be it showing a bitter easterly or a fantasy SWly

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    ECM ens suggesting winds will be coming in from the north west from t144

     

    EDU1-144.GIF?11-0EDU1-168.GIF?11-0EDU1-192.GIF?11-0EDU1-216.GIF?11-0EDU1-240.GIF?11-0

     

    Although no major freeze temperature would be low enough for snow in the north especially higher ground but maybe even some lower levels at times

     

    EDU0-144.GIF?11-0EDU0-168.GIF?11-0EDU0-192.GIF?11-0EDU0-216.GIF?11-0EDU0-240.GIF?11-0

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