Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

[johnholmes]

AND THE SCANDI HEIGHTS PUSHING IN WITH THE LOBE OF VORTEX OVER GREENLAND LOOKING PRETTY LONELY.

I think a couple of your posts might benefit from a less knee jerk reaction and more time to look carefully at charts. Commenting as soon as a frame comes out is a bit pointless. Much better, if you feel the need to watch every run, to wait until the run finishes, compare it to the last isue by the same model, then compare those to other models to see if there is a concensus?

Edited December 8, 2014 by Paul

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I think a couple of your posts might benefit from a less knee jerk reaction and more time to look carefully at charts. Commenting as soon as a frame comes out is a bit pointless. Much better, if you feel the need to watch every run, to wait until the run finishes, compare it to the last isue by the same model, then compare those to other models to see if there is a concensus?

Lol I'm guessing he meant of what he feels it could lead to ?! Granted not the best choice of words but if you look at the vortex , for the 18th dec that's one shakey vortex . Certainly not the dizzy strength of last year , I can see the potential of that chart going forward but wrong in both terms , no Scandi high and no greeny high , but with the disorganised vortex and with big Russian hights one can see how it could envelop maybe?? Just premature in his wording ! Edited December 8, 2014 by Paul
Removed a line from the quoted post.

[TonyH]

AND THE SCANDI HEIGHTS PUSHING IN WITH THE LOBE OF VORTEX OVER GREENLAND LOOKING PRETTY LONELY.

Can see the high over Siberia but nowhere near Scandinavia EM!

[blizzard81]

AND THE SCANDI HEIGHTS PUSHING IN WITH THE LOBE OF VORTEX OVER GREENLAND LOOKING PRETTY LONELY.

Well, I hope something like this chart verifies as we get to the 10 day time frame. I can't recall seeing anything like it in terms of

the weakening vortex over our side of the pole being hemmed in by no less than four strong high pressure cells - 1030 high

over the pole, 1030 high over north east Canada, 1030 high to the south and 1035 high to our east. Surely these will squeeze the life

out of the already weakening vortex to our north. In fact, ridging is already taking place into northern Greenland and a tentative ridge

being thrown up to the north west of Scotland - very similar to how 47 started

Edited December 8, 2014 by blizzard81

[Paul]

For those looking to follow the potential stormy weather this week, there's a thread set up to discuss it here:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81943-possible-stormwind-event/page-4#entry3083600

 

This isn't to say it can't be discussed in here, as obviously there's plenty of model related discussion which can occur around it, but for more general chat and forecasts, that's the thread to head to. 

[karyo]

Some good warming showing on Christmas eve...

 

viewimage.pbx.png

 

Interesting Christmas period for model watching perhaps...

Actually, the warming looked much better in yesterday's GFS runs and it was starting earlier. 

[ANYWEATHER]

A continuation of the unsettled and cold weather with little in the way of milder spells.! As for the Northern storm during midweek, nothing unusual for those hardy Northerners , if it was for the South it would make major headlines  

[Nick L]

Model discussion please. If you have an issue with someone, either PM them to discuss it politely, or inform one of us via PM. 

[Nick L]

I'll ask again. Can we stay on topic please? Otherwise posts are just going to keep disappearing. Use the PM system rather than derailing this thread.

 

Thanks.

[Paul]

The original post which caused some of the recent comments has now been edited, so please can we get back on topic now.

The comments since have been noted, and as ever I'd just say that it's not down to just the team to look after the forum, the whole community has a part to play, so please report posts you have an issue with rather than responding in the thread.

Thanks

Paul

[Banbury]

Actually, the warming looked much better in yesterday's GFS runs and it was starting earlier. 

Have you got a link for comparison purposes

[Timmytour]

ECM again has probably the most underwhelming charts for next weekend (if we ignore the dodgy GEM 850s)

The pattern flattens even quicker than the GFS, let alone the GEM and UKMO. At least Scotland might still have a chance of wintry showers on Saturday. Another deep depression looks like going close to the north of Scotland by Sunday.

I see interest in that one day evolution. The technical term may be something aliong the lines of heights attempting to rise to West of Greenland. I'm never sure tbh. What I always look for is the North Atlantic Flying Swan....where the oranges and yellows rise up towards the West of Greenland and take the shape of a swan flying north west while looking in a north east direction.

Not the most technical of explanations     but I have seen it in recent years...alas only in T9 to T10 charts!

But over the last few weeks I sense there's been a constant probling of that area  (ie the west side of Greenland) without too much success to be fair.....but all the time it probes it is set to take advantage of when there's a weakness there that lets it finally succeed. The above charts are another little probe that doesn't get anywhere.....but at some point this winter it will find the weakness and then it will be a case of let the fun and games begin......I hope!

Edited December 8, 2014 by Timmytour

[Daniel*]

Saturday may provide some snow potential interest for Southern counties. I might be a total novice but isn't that a channel low? as the PPN associated with it bumps into the cold air perhaps some transient snowfall, for SE England. Not just exclusively on uninhabitable highest hills malarkey. I do think we might get something wintery down south: here's hoping - before possible 'milder' regime.

Edited December 8, 2014 by Daniel*

[Stuie]

Well, I hope something like this chart verifies as we get to the 10 day time frame. I can't recall seeing anything like it in terms of

the weakening vortex over our side of the pole being hemmed in by no less than four strong high pressure cells - 1030 high

over the pole, 1030 high over north east Canada, 1030 high to the south and 1035 high to our east. Surely these will squeeze the life

out of the already weakening vortex to our north. In fact, ridging is already taking place into northern Greenland and a tentative ridge

being thrown up to the north west of Scotland - very similar to how 47 started

Good post.

 

Not often you see a Western "block" (don`t quote me on that) develop to this degree, even the Azores high being tempted westward. This chart maybe more FI to the one you posted but stacks of western HP.

[Biggin]

Well, I hope something like this chart verifies as we get to the 10 day time frame. I can't recall seeing anything like it in terms of

the weakening vortex over our side of the pole being hemmed in by no less than four strong high pressure cells - 1030 high

over the pole, 1030 high over north east Canada, 1030 high to the south and 1035 high to our east. Surely these will squeeze the life

out of the already weakening vortex to our north. In fact, ridging is already taking place into northern Greenland and a tentative ridge

being thrown up to the north west of Scotland - very similar to how 47 started

If I am honest I dont think I have ever seen a chart that looks like that before. Anyone?? Some peeps are good at providing similar charts in years gone by.

[knocker]

Little change with the overall picture in tonight's anomalies. The upper trough Canada.Greenland to the east of the UK is still the main player with the GEFs orientating it slightly more east allowing a tad more incursion from the HP. Both have HP eastern Europe and North America with an arm from the latter east into the Atlantic. LP east and west Pacific.

 

The upshot of this regarding the surface analysis is basically a continuation of the current set up with depressions zipping along on the jet from the SE seaboard of the US bringing very unsettled conditions to the UK with intermittent wet and strong winds. Temps generally below average but with periods of above.

 

In the extended period no much change, maybe a suspicion of blocking with the ECM but that might be auto suggestion,

 

NOAA although perhaps  not in complete agreement with alignment of the trough is certainly on the same page.

 

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited December 8, 2014 by Paul

[fergieweather]

First tentative whiff of height rises over/near Greenland in EC 12z clusters beyond circa 21 Dec (and out to T+360) with resultant hints of possible northerly flow regime for UK. Baby-steps....We expect there to be a possible lag period before this sort of outcome emerges further in EC with any stronger definition, but still too far off to warrant anything 'excitable' by way of forum reaction, I stress.

[karyo]

Have you got a link for comparison purposes

You can check the stratosphere on the gfs net weather site: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc

[nick sussex]

Tonights output is heading towards another stalemate if the ECM mean is to be believed, the Siberian high edges west low pressure parked near the UK.

 

The longer range ensembles show the main wind clustering from the west, a few ECM ensembles especially towards the end  put their head above the parapet of blandness and look more continental based se round to ne flows.

 

The general theme is to keep the Azores high sufficiently displaced which at least  stops the Wicked Witch from riding in on her sw'erly broomstick of despair.

 

So its really a case of not bad enough to start me on one of my tirades but not good enough for me to be overly enthusiastic. Maybe once you've endured the many horrors of some ghastly winters of the past and still have your I Survived Winter 88/89 T-Shirt that you self-soothe in that Oh Well It Could Be A Lot Worse Kind Of Way!

 

And that really is the nub of things, there are some tentative signs that the westerly regime might weaken and if the strat warming can survive the rocky road into the more reliable timeframe that we might see a change around the Christmas period.

 

It would be nice to see those snowy scenes pushed by endless commercials actually arrive at that time.

 

Before then theres a lot of wind and rain and some snow this week but not really the crispy sort that crunches underfoot. I fear after proclaiming this wouldn't be one of my tirades it sort of edged that way but I just couldn't help myself!

Edited December 8, 2014 by nick sussex

[knocker]

First tentative whiff of height rises over/near Greenland in EC 12z clusters beyond circa 21 Dec (and out to T+360) with resultant hints of possible northerly flow regime for UK. Baby-steps....We expect there to be a possible lag period before this sort of outcome emerges further in EC with any stronger definition, but still too far off to warrant anything 'excitable' by way of forum reaction, I stress.

 

Yes if I stretch my imagination a suspicion on the T360 anomaly..

Edited December 8, 2014 by knocker

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

 

 

Now something that's got my tiny little mind ticking.  Firstly that little feature [trough] west of Ireland in first frame, that will bring a pretty lively day for the South.

Now the other thing is from frame 1 to 2 the main trough doesn't over Norway doesn't move East, on the last it does comfortably......I think we could see this point being up for change and the block over Russia holds and then pushes west so we don't see the trough move east past Norway or a westerly push into the UK.  Also the developing trough over Iceland in frame two comes down NNW / SSE.  Of course I'm looking through cold glasses...but hey

 

 

BFTP

Edited December 8, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[A.J]

First tentative whiff of height rises over/near Greenland in EC 12z clusters beyond circa 21 Dec (and out to T+360) with resultant hints of possible northerly flow regime for UK. Baby-steps....We expect there to be a possible lag period before this sort of outcome emerges further in EC with any stronger definition, but still too far off to warrant anything 'excitable' by way of forum reaction, I stress.

too late Ian, your post met 'popular' status within milliseconds of posting......cold ramping meltdown is imminent 

 

In the shorter time frame, for us southerners, there's a little interest for some possible sleet/snow as we move into the weekend on today's model outputs (as Daniel mentioned a short while ago)....One to watch with interest to see if signals are still there over the next 24-48 hours

[bluearmy]

Yes if I stretch my imagination a suspicion on the T360 anomaly..

Not really on show via the mean or anomolys on ECM although naefs has, on both it's runs today pushed the n American/Atlantic high anomoly towards Greenland.this seems more to do with the gem ens than the gefs with the gem ens managing to raise a mean upper ridge of sorts in the region by day 16. don't have much experience of the gem ens but I do know that joe b was waxing lyrical about them picking the upcoming se USA trough ahead of the ncep and ECM suites.

[Nouska]

I don't know if any of you rate the monthly ensembles from the BCC - this caught my eye from the update today. Last trimester of December - might relate with Ian's comments.

 

[blizzard81]

I don't know if any of you rate the monthly ensembles from the BCC - this caught my eye from the update today. Last trimester of December - might relate with Ian's comments.

 

Hi Nouska, is this the Chinese model?