Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

[bluearmy]

Just wanted to chuck this in here from Fergie as a point of interest.. - it's in the Banter thread for those that want to view the original...

 

PS: MOGREPS & 00z EC ENS stamps now agree on signs of westerly waning into trend period. Circa 40% now show some form of continental block.

That could be another sceuro! actually, a repeat of the pattern we saw through November would deliver rather different surface conditions now that the continent has cooled. A soueaster with uppers below freezing with fronts trying to push in ........

Anyway, back to the westerly onslaught!

[TSNWK]

 

Just wanted to chuck this in here from Fergie as a point of interest.. - it's in the Banter thread for those that want to view the original...

 

 

PS: MOGREPS & 00z EC ENS stamps now agree on signs of westerly waning into trend period. Circa 40% now show some form of continental block.

 

 

Ouch! Continental block -> Seuro high? not sure I approve

[IDO]

^^^ Cheers Mucka. Yes for the next two weeks of a Nw'ly/W'ly regime we might as well get something favourable within that pattern. I suppose I am always looking for the pattern change (to blocked) rather than having a glass half full. 

 

Interesting re the Continental flow on the EC as per IF as when I looked at the wind directions for Holland they suggested predominantly SW to Westerly right out to D15:

 

 

I suppose it is how far east the block sets up? Though I don't really see cold coming from the east before the SSW.

 

The heights in the US due after D10 should push the 850's PV lobe east (towards the UK). This should enable any further PM shots to be colder and as we are further into December more snowy:

 

 

 

IMO that's where any December's cold will come from.

[bluearmy]

Fwiw, I also query the positioning of a continental black based on the ecm ens surface temps for Berlin and Warsaw days 10/15.

[Frosty.]

It looks bitterly cold and wintry in the north from midweek with frequent, heavy and squally hail, sleet and snow showers with considerable lying snow and drifting across the hills and mountains of Scotland along with coastal storm surges..the first hard bite of winter is only a few days away..it should also turn colder in the south, especially once the persistent rain on Friday clears. :-)

Reading some comments on here one could come to the conclusion the weather was going to be normal but for northern UK this is far from the case..it looks wintry.

Edited December 8, 2014 by Frosty.

[chionomaniac]

That could be another sceuro! actually, a repeat of the pattern we saw through November would deliver rather different surface conditions now that the continent has cooled. A soueaster with uppers below freezing with fronts trying to push in ........

Anyway, back to the westerly onslaught!

I can't work that out just yet. The 00Z ECM ens mean anomalies that I have just seen on twitter for Day 16 don't suggest Sceuro block - but we are not privy to clusters - may be more Mogreps based as well.

[IDO]

Hello ECM: 

 

As I was suggesting the ECM clusters at D5 were split and the London 2m temp graph highlights this. Equally split between mild runs (GEM like) and Cooler ones. Interesting to see where it goes! I wont leave the GEFS out either as it has the same split:

 

[fergieweather]

I can't work that out just yet. The 00Z ECM ens mean anomalies that I have just seen on twitter for Day 16 don't suggest Sceuro block - but we are not privy to clusters - may be more Mogreps based as well.

 

Let me cite the Deputy Chief directly (from briefing issued this morning, based on 00z suites), to clarify exact phraseology:

"....postage stamps from both EC and MOGREPS-15 are now showing some waning in the strength of W’ly progression, with a minority of members (~40%) hinting at blocking across the Continent".

Edited December 8, 2014 by fergieweather

[MPG]

Let me cite the Deputy Chief directly (from briefing issued this morning, based on 00z suites), to clarify exact phraseology:

"....postage stamps from both EC and MOGREPS-15 are now showing some waning in the strength of W’ly progression, with a minority of members (~40%) hinting at blocking across the Continent".

I guess 40% is a minority in percentage terms, but quite substantial compared to recent EC and MOGREPS output?

[TonyH]

A cold wintry and stormy outlook continues  from the N/W, With -10 uppers close to Scotland further into the run giving blizzard conditions for parts in the North, And Snow possibility's extending further South.

 

 

In the north yes not so further south, windy and showery more like

Edited December 8, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[bluearmy]

Let me cite the Deputy Chief directly (from briefing issued this morning, based on 00z suites), to clarify exact phraseology:

"....postage stamps from both EC and MOGREPS-15 are now showing some waning in the strength of W’ly progression, with a minority of members (~40%) hinting at blocking across the Continent".

 

one would presume a wide variation of blocking outcomes then and the fact that recent output was strongly supportive of the westerly theme in week 2 makes the comment relevant.

thanks ian

[Ali1977]

It will be interesting to see where the <40% of members showing blocking have it situated, I'm guessing Continental blocking means more Med located rather than Scandy located. There is nothing in any charts suggesting any in the Northern half of Europe as I see it. 

Edited December 8, 2014 by Ali1977

[MPG]

It will be interesting to see where the <40% of members showing blocking have it situated, I'm guessing Continental blocking means more Med located rather than Scandy located. There is nothing in any charts suggesting any in the Northern half of Europe as I see it. 

Not sure it was less than 40% (<), in the region of 40% as I read it.

[IDO]

In the north yes not so further south, windy and showery more like

 

 

Yes, ECM take on snow Wed-Fri looks mainly Borders and Scotland. Some high totals for mid-Scotland. Not much for England:

 

  WSI_EuroEnergy

ECMWF prognosis of UK daily accumulated snow for the 10th to 12th in centimetres per day. http://t.co/RNvNqjzyjz

08/12/2014 13:45

Edited December 8, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[TSNWK]

Can anyone define Continental blocking I wonder? I mean we know what Scandi / Greenland / Azores etc are exactly - Would it be right to suggest that  Continental blocking is blocking centered around Germany, with us likley to be under South easterlys at best.

 

I'm not sure ?

[A.J]

best to wait and see, rather than getting too caught up in the details to be fair.....as Fergie mentioned, it's just one minority solution from the met office models with an ambiguous definition of what type of blocking is tied in with that particular solution

[knocker]

The GFS snow amounts now until Friday. That's before before the mini heatwave of course

Charts weatherbell

 

 

[chionomaniac]

best to wait and see, rather than getting too caught up in the details to be fair.....as Fergie mentioned, it's just one minority solution from the met office models with an ambiguous definition of what type of blocking is tied in with that particular solution

Would agree here and thanks to Ian - being the minority solution it isn't showing up in the T+384 ECM ens anomaly charts tweeted earlier- so waiting best.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Can anyone define Continental blocking I wonder? I mean we know what Scandi / Greenland / Azores etc are exactly - Would it be right to suggest that  Continental blocking is blocking centered around Germany, with us likley to be under South easterlys at best.

 

I'm not sure ?

I don't get why people trying to analyse so much ? A Continental block means a vast variety of options . All we no is the Atlantic is on its way out. And fergie did say signs of a -NAO as we progress through the month . So all in all a very positive update.

Given the background signals this year I doubt we need to worry too much about a mid lat block ? With the snow index so strong this year it seems logical to expect the siberian high exerting it's influence further West with time doesn't it?

No need to worry and get caught up or reading too much into what was said . But it's a positive step in the right direction definitely .

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I don't get why people trying to analyse so much ? A Continental block means a vast variety of options . All we no is the Atlantic is on its way out. And fergie did say signs of a -NAO as we progress through the month . So all in all a very positive update.

Given the background signals this year I doubt we need to worry too much about a mid lat block ? With the snow index so strong this year it seems logical to expect the siberian high exerting it's influence further West with time doesn't it?

No need to worry and get caught up or reading too much into what was said . But it's a positive step in the right direction definitely .

 

POSSIBLY on the way out!!, as we all know from experiance just like any other model MOGREPS doesn't always get it right and considering this talked about time frame is still way out in la la land we all also no that this time next week it could show the Atlantic back in charge. However I am a little bit excited about the talked about potential later in the month :-) 

[mushymanrob]

The atlantic on the way out? I cant see anything on any run that suggests that. Ok theres a break from the atlantic for a few days here and there, but over the course of the whole operational runs, plus the anomaly charts, theres a clear Atlantic dominance.

[Bristawl Si]

The atlantic on the way out? I cant see anything on any run that suggests that. Ok theres a break from the atlantic for a few days here and there, but over the course of the whole operational runs, plus the anomaly charts, theres a clear Atlantic dominance.

And Ian kindly emphasised that the block scenario was starting to show up right at the end of the time period, not next couple of weeks.

Wait and see if models start to pick up signals over next few days runs i guess.

[bluearmy]

The atlantic on the way out? I cant see anything on any run that suggests that. Ok theres a break from the atlantic for a few days here and there, but over the course of the whole operational runs, plus the anomaly charts, theres a clear Atlantic dominance.

Correct rob - you cant. Neither can we. MOgreps and ecm stamps are for the lucky few!

Oh, and blocking South of our latitude wouldn't preclude a westerly

[MR EXTREMES]

well well ive held back from getting to over excited by the models since the excitement of last week things have most certain taken a turn for the worst although not terrible in the near term.

 

the gfs 6z are showing the regeneration of the polar vortex and a very compact feature, is starting show its hand in later runs.

 

we have found this to be a very persistent trend being shown by not just the gfs!.

 

infact its all very compact over the arctic with not a single high ridge anywhere into the whole arctic circle!,

infact its looking flatter than last year although this could be that the models are not sure on which pattern in fi.

 

if the same type of runs keep coming out in the next few days id be inclined to right off the rest of december its very messy indeed.

 

the gefs does have a try at getting heights cutting into the arctic regions but looks to be failing as the vortex relentless attack around greenland continues.

the gem is not such a gem its awful

and very messy and like the rest euro heights and main core of the vortex stationed over greenland.

the ecm is much better with squeeze of heights from the east heading nw into the arctic area and another squeeze ne over canadian area with the vortex look a tad bit east and se of greenland although still not a favoured area still carries of the risk of polar air and possiblity of a trend futher on beyond.

but it has to be said the ecm has been a little sketchy and this mornings runs has little support from the other main models.

 

lets hope the ecm trend continues for the next few days but i fear the worst for the rest of december.

 

but over all way to much heights to our se south and southwest which is a very worrying feature indeed.

Edited December 8, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[IDO]

The GFS snow amounts now until Friday. That's before before the mini heatwave of course

Charts weatherbell

 

Yes for Southerner's this cold spell is a non-cold spell with temps barely raising a second glance:  

 

The forecast temps will probably even out as just above average. No snow likely with ECM saying 0% and about 5% from the GEFS. We have had a frost on Saturday morning but on Sunday morning it was near 10c. I would not bet against another positive CET in December.