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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter


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Still circle of death on the CFS MJOpost-14819-0-03776100-1417880752_thumb.p

 

CFS FWIW horrid in early January: post-14819-0-06718300-1417880812_thumb.p

 

Just For Fun, or not in this instance. Do not know why CFS is still churning out poor wintry charts for Dec-Jan? However Feb to April they keep churning out HLB'ing. Today Scandi in Feb, Greenland in March and Scandi in April. Maybe a later Winter this year?

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A few of you have asked today about rationale for the (tail-end of) UKMO latest 30-day outlook. There is, of course, a dedicated thread elsewhere for this but I'll just confirm that GloSea5 output rem

Thanks for this Barry   You are however wrong on both counts you suggest :   1) I have explained in extended detail, as much as I am able, the progress of the patterns thus far from autumn (see firs

Hopefully a timely interjection, but UKMO caution (again) that medium range NWP may not be adequately reflecting ultimate broadscale outcome. First tentative signs emerging, they suggest, of *possible

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The cold Northerly flow is starting to get in the reliable time frame now. More heights towards Greenland and more of a Northerly flow rather than a North Westerly that was on the 6z.

 

gfsnh-0-144.png?12gfsnh-0-150.png?6

 

The interest continues...

Edited by Barry95
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^^^ Its only a brief Northerly. By midday Saturday most of the UK will be in SW'ly sourced air... post-14819-0-19771800-1417882854_thumb.p

 

...though in a cool upper flow...post-14819-0-31522000-1417882942_thumb.p

 

...but with slack uppers it is more likely to be a dry transient Northerly.

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Not a bad northerly at 156 on gfs but those cold uppers look abit narrow for snow away from the far north. Also still a week away so confidence low at moment.

 

We've got -6 uppers for the North of England, so not really true.

 

gfs-1-174.png?12

Edited by Barry95
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The end of the GFS op and it continues with its recent theme of height rises towards the W Coast of the US so possibly another Arctic plunge for parts of the US and some +10c uppers for the UK:

 

post-14819-0-87468400-1417884113_thumb.p  post-14819-0-16047800-1417884186_thumb.p 

 

The warming was making it interesting from D12 but slackens at the end of the run: post-14819-0-65079300-1417884253_thumb.p

 

 

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I see on the GFS 12z that the northerlies have a brief but happy lifespan. It starts well at T144 as the low starts it's trip down the North Sea but by T180 the equally brief transient Azores ridge exerts it influence with NWs until the next Atlantic system takes over with central pressure 960mb Iceland and introducing a strong south westerly blowing away the colder air. Don't know why but this reminds me of a Bob Dylan song.

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Pretty underwhelming gfs run to be honest brief northerly at t144 then we see the south westerlys move over the uk with temps returning to average also turning wet. Let's see what the ECM does.

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GEM keeps it flat through the next 10 days:

 

post-14819-0-31206800-1417885382_thumb.p  post-14819-0-38170600-1417885389_thumb.p post-14819-0-35024500-1417885398_thumb.p

 

The uppers remain -4c or warmer throughout the run and any snow is on Scottish mountains. No Arctic Northerly at the end of next week either?

 

So UKMO at one end of the amplification index, GEM at the other end and GFS in the middle. At least 50% support for something closer to GEM than the GFS op at D6 according to its ensembles, and no surprise that there is no support for the UKMO take (after their last non-Northerly it has to be treated with considerable doubt):

 

post-14819-0-41710900-1417885810_thumb.p

 

So still uncertain how much the Atlantic ridge will amplify?

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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That was quite a discouraging post from Fergie in regard to the prospect of seeing any blocking develop after mid month with the description of a zonal flow with trough to the North and high pressure to the South and of course that is largely what we see in the output.

If there are to be any surprises I still think it will be to our NE and if we can get some undercut and amplification we can get some WAA into higher latitudes and pump up an Arctic high which would change the probabilities for blocking taking shape later in the month significantly.

We have not sen it modeled and admittedly it is not really being suggested in anomaly charts or ensembles but other than hoping for some fairly big changes upstream I see that as something that could pop up and surprise.

Once again rather speculative but I hope to see it at least modeled at some stage over the next couple of days.

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GEM keeps it flat through the next 10 days:

 

attachicon.gifgem-0-114.png  attachicon.gifgem-0-156.png attachicon.gifgem-0-240 (1).png

 

The uppers remain -4c or warmer throughout the run and any snow is on Scottish mountains. No Arctic Northerly at the end of next week either?

 

So UKMO at one end of the amplification index, GEM at the other end and GFS in the middle. At least 50% support for something closer to GEM than the GFS op at D6 according to its ensembles, and no surprise that there is no support for the UKMO take (after their last non-Northerly it has to be treated with considerable doubt):

 

attachicon.gifMeteociel_-_Panel_GEFS 2.png

 

So still uncertain how much the Atlantic ridge will amplify?

The gem looks interesting to me, with heights building nicely over Greenland from 114... Do we have NH view.

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GEM keeps it flat through the next 10 days:

 

attachicon.gifgem-0-114.png  attachicon.gifgem-0-156.png attachicon.gifgem-0-240 (1).png

 

The uppers remain -4c or warmer throughout the run and any snow is on Scottish mountains. No Arctic Northerly at the end of next week either?

 

So UKMO at one end of the amplification index, GEM at the other end and GFS in the middle. At least 50% support for something closer to GEM than the GFS op at D6 according to its ensembles, and no surprise that there is no support for the UKMO take (after their last non-Northerly it has to be treated with considerable doubt):

 

attachicon.gifMeteociel_-_Panel_GEFS 2.png

 

So still uncertain how much the Atlantic ridge will amplify?

certainly changes trying to make inroads but the problem is we need the low to drop into europe to our south east theres a strong likely hood that the northerly could miss us completely as seen in recent winters would be nice to see the ridge out to our west futher north in the or even nw but the vortex is putting up a stubbon fight so in all fairness until we see this it will be your typical northerly toppler.

 

but as i suggested during the week the models are throwing up much more interest with the continued ridge over in russia trying to push into the arctic circle.

the strat warming event does seem to have declined looking at the post just put up.

 

but over all in the short term wintry for some windy and cold later in fi the models do suggest possibly upper 850s rising.

although theres also a possibility we could see the heights to our west set up shop over the uk which is also a common feature during dec but were does it go when its finished over the uk if low pressure relaxes to our north and north east then possible retrogression to scandi area.

 

just an idea and beyond fi i might add but theres a good chance things could start throwing up better and better charts for the uk in coming runs although the laughable mjo cfs run might put a spanner in the works even though the model is not truely a prize model.

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