Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

[Dr. Astro]

Possible heights building towards Greenland from NE Canada perhaps around the 3rd week, or I'm I misinterpreting those charts?

 

Hello Hocus Pocus,

 

No, that is correct what you are saying. It generally merges with the Azores High, with height's moving towards Greenland. It can also link up with any Scandinavian High too.

 

If one is seeking cold & snow, this is an ideal situation.

 

 

The charts continue to chop and change, and I must add this makes a very interesting time to be model watching...

 

Somethings brewing, one thinks.

Edited December 3, 2014 by Dr. Astro

[blizzard81]

Strangely there is no sign of any mean upper response to that surface cluster. presumably it would turn out to be a fairly mobile feature though at this range it seems odd to see such a large cluster on something which turns out to be mobile.??

The back end of the ECM extended ens shows the main part of the vortex the other side of the NH (Far East of Siberia extending into the Aleutian area) with a small Canadian segment just nw of Greenland. As I posted earlier, of that verifies to any eat extent, I would expect to see something this side of the NH taking control. That could vary from a displaced Azores ridge over us to the Siberian one extending into scandi and beyond. it could also leave us stuck in a weak mean trough between an Atlantic ridge and west Russian one. whatever transpires, it could stick around without too much of a northern arm to move it on.

Yes, and if either one of those two scenario's transpires, mild will not be the watch word.

[Nick F]

Rather uninspiring 06z run with nothing like the ECM clustering: gfsnh-0-384-31.png

 

Much in line with GFS output in FI for the last few runs. The CFS MJO does not now want to take us into an amplified phase 6-7 which is not a good trend:

 

realtimemjo (4).png

 

Suggesting a rerun of phase 3-4 (upcoming pattern). The UKMO also hinting in todays 30 day update of "average temps" & "North/South divide": http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

 

Yes, most models seem to be weakening the MJO signal past phase 7, into the circle of death. Currently in phase 5, given the lag, using 500mb composite anomaly for December, both phases loosely correlate to low heights near and N/NW of the UK and -ve anomaly retracted way north over Canada as looks to be the case for N America over coming days:

 

Phase 4

 

Phase 5

 

Latest El Nino update from BOM still not declaring one yet, but sticking with at least 70% chance of a weak to moderate one occuring, several ENSO indicators close to or exceeding El Nino thresholds with impacts already being observed: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

 

As many may know, El Nino in winter can lead to a cold and dry northern Europe / wetter and mild southern Europe, due to a more southerly storm track over USA and N Atlantic, but such conditions tend to occur later in the winter Jan into Feb. So we will have to wait to see how much the El Nino signal impacts us.

 

The polar low over NW Russia is now on the wane over the next days, so this will allow the Siberian high to expand again, which will allow wave propagation to continue uninterrupted - to put further pressure on the Polar Vortex. Though still probably a long way to go until we see the PV split.

 

So, that leaves us at the mercy of the lobe of the Polar Vortex close to the north for a good chunk of December and an active jet sliding south into next week. From Sunday, we appear to stay under a chilly/cold Pm airmass most of next week, apart from Tuesday, when we see a warm sector ahead of the big storm arriving later, ECM has us under Pm/rPm much of the week, 06z GFS has milder sector coming back in on Friday. Tuesday/Weds potential storm looks worrying for northern areas though, with possible secondary low development on the jet left exit south of the main deep low pushing east, which could bring hurricane force winds and blizzards to Scotland. One to keep a close eye on!

Edited December 3, 2014 by Nick F

[Barry12]

Yep, if you are looking for mild weather in the next couple of weeks you will be very disappointed, could be a good month for snow in Scotland.

 

 

Thursday

 

 

 

Friday

 

 

 

Saturday

 

 

 

Sunday

 

 

 

As you can see from the Max Temperature Charts, it's staying rather cold throughout this week, especially for Northern UK. There is also some snow interest for Scotland and higher ground over Northern England, especially on Friday and Sunday.

 

 

Friday snow

 

 

 

Sunday Snow

 

 

 

So there could be some accumulations for Scotland and higher ground over Northern England as Summer Sun pointed out earlier. The Scottish Ski Resorts should be in a healthy position, especially for early December. For most of us at lower levels, we will have to keep waiting, but as Frosty says 'Patience Grasshoppers'. Anyway, as has been said numerous times, we are in a far better position than we were in this time last Winter. There's currently not a cloud in the sky as I type this, and this should continue for the next couple of days.

 

 

[knocker]

Mild weather? Not a problem and the end of the run is a lulu.

Charts weatherbell

Edited December 3, 2014 by knocker

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Mild weather? Not a problem and the end of the run is a lulu.

Charts weatherbell

Doesn't them 2 charts equate to 2 mild days out of the next 10?

I thought that from looking at all the latest model runs from the past few days is that generally temps were going to be cool to cold countrywide with the VERY ODD mild day here and there as LP's pass through. I don't know if you meant in on purpose but the way you posted would suggest it is going to be nothing but mild from now on?, which could not be any further from the truth if you tried.

Edited December 3, 2014 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Nick L]

Several posts have just been removed. Let's not resort to childish comments please.

[A.J]

A few posts removed for being off topic and/or not model output related....

 

An idea for posters, is that rather than posting a one-line sentence stating you disagree with a poster, try posting something more substantial giving reasons why you disgree as simply saying you disagree really doesn't help the discussion....thanks

[Frosty.]

Coldies should be happier with the latest overall trend into a very disturbed and rather cold pattern although initially it looks quieter, the calm before the storm if you like.. the coldest air is likely to hit hardest further north by north west you are which is where the brunt of the polar maritime incursions will be felt but even the south / se are unlikely to see anything mild of note, generally either average or slightly below temperatures with occasionally more pronounced digs of colder air penetrating the south too. In my opinion this is much more like I was hoping for, especially as last month we were between a rock and a hard place with high pressure stubbornly sticking to the east of the uk with low pressure anchored to the west, now we are heading into a spell of cold zonality with night frosts, wintry showers and at least temporary accumulations of snow on high ground, especially across the north. It really grates when I read comments like, run of the mill, uninspiring, dire and bleak when describing what I have just said here..we (coldies) are finally in for some action and i'm sure it's only a matter of time before a very wintry spell develops.  

Edited December 3, 2014 by Frosty.

[Snowman.]

MJO for the longer range models:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON_phase_51m_small.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/BOMM_phase_33m_small.gif

 

They're recent forecast is heading for phases 6/7 which would suggest the following in JANUARY.

 

6- http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/JanuaryPhase6All500mb.gif

7- http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/JanuaryPhase7All500mb.gif

 

To me they suggest signs of blocking in the north and PV disruption. 

Edited December 3, 2014 by SN0WM4N

[gottolovethisweather]

Mild weather? Not a problem and the end of the run is a lulu.

Charts weatherbell

 

How dare you provoke the coldies, Knocker.   You know your chart simply illustrates one mildish day out of the next seven to ten days at least, if the current setup goes as forecast. Nick F's posting above concurs and the trend to cooler days with perhaps a few Frosts is upon us, aside from those spells of rain and wind on occasion. 

 

And for a bit more context, have a gander at these.

 

4th - 6th December expected UK Temperatures against the Average.

 

 

7th - 9th December expected UK Temperatures against the Average.

 

 

10th - 12th December expected UK Temperatures against the Average.

 

 

Of course, this will change to some degree as each model output gets updated, but there isn't much room on those charts for mild weather across England. The question remains though, as to how much snow or rain will fall during this cooler than average spell. I suspect that by the middle of December a fair few of us (more especially away from Southern UK) should have at least witnessed a wintry snowflake blowing in the air, whether from heavy wintry showers or from something more organised. Deep cold, no, but cold enough for snow in most upland regions and occasionally at lower elevations if things fall right. Lots of differing NWP outputs to keep a track of, but it should be fun if you like witnessing active weather and your Temperatures on the cooler side. 

Edited December 3, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Paul]

Doesn't them 2 charts equate to 2 mild days out of the next 10?

I thought that from looking at all the latest model runs from the past few days is that generally temps were going to be cool to cold countrywide with the VERY ODD mild day here and there as LP's pass through. I don't know if you meant in on purpose but the way you posted would suggest it is going to be nothing but mild from now on?, which could not be any further from the truth if you tried.

 

Odd, as I could swear he said 'the end of the run' in his post, which I'd equate to mean the end of the run rather than all of it?!

[Dr. Astro]

MJO for the longer range models:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON_phase_51m_small.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/BOMM_phase_33m_small.gif

 

They're recent forecast is heading for phases 6/7 which would suggest the following in JANUARY.

 

6- http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/JanuaryPhase6All500mb.gif

7- http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/JanuaryPhase7All500mb.gif

 

To me they suggest signs of blocking in the north and PV disruption. 

 

Hi Snowman,

 

Yes, although some of them are heading for the "Circle of Doom" which you don't want. A rinse & repeat scenario of mush.

 

We have support though, even from MOGREPS-G Ensemble System:

 

 

And the MOGREPS-G Control Run:

 

 

We also have support from: Global Ensemble Forecast System (NCPE):

 

 

NCEP Global Bias-Corrected Ensemble Forecast System:

 

Along with others...

 

What we don't want to see is the "Circle of Doom" scenario.

 

Lets see if we can get to Phase 7, and establish some blocking in areas that favour a more "cold" outcome.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hi Snowman,

 

Yes, although some of them are heading for the "Circle of Doom" which you don't want. A rinse & repeat scenario of mush.

 

We have support though, even from MOGREPS-G Ensemble System:

 

 

And the MOGREPS-G Control Run:

 

 

We also have support from: Global Ensemble Forecast System (NCPE):

 

 

NCEP Global Bias-Corrected Ensemble Forecast System:

 

Along with others...

 

What we don't want to see is the "Circle of Doom" scenario.

 

Lets see if we can get to Phase 7, and establish some blocking in areas that favour a more "cold" outcome.

 

 

Seeing as we appear to be in an MJO led base state at present, should modelling firm up on us progressing into phase 6/7 then some 'stellar' charts showing up in the NWP can be expected soon.

[Snowy L]

Would trust MOGREPs ahead of any other chart. That model nailed the failed easterly in Dec 2012, the cold spell in Late Jan-April 2013 and the failed attacks on the vortex in winter 2014.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Would trust MOGREPs ahead of any other chart. That model nailed the failed easterly in Dec 2012, the cold spell in Late Jan-April 2013 and the failed attacks on the vortex in winter 2014.

 

It'll be interesting to see whether the model will now begin to pick up on any blocking signal as we progress through December.

[Nick F]

MJO for the longer range models:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON_phase_51m_small.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/BOMM_phase_33m_small.gif

 

They're recent forecast is heading for phases 6/7 which would suggest the following in JANUARY.

 

6- http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/JanuaryPhase6All500mb.gif

7- http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/JanuaryPhase7All500mb.gif

 

To me they suggest signs of blocking in the north and PV disruption. 

 

By Jan, those models forecast the MJO goes too weak, so not having any major forcing impacts on trop/strat circulations. So those composites maybe less relevant if that became the case.

 

Strong El Nino tends to favour a weak or absent MJO, though we're unlikely to go strong rather weak or mod at the most, so hopefully the MJO will keep some amplitude this winter in the phases that are good. Be interesting to see if we go into the circle of death or remain enough strength through 7-8, as per MOGREPS, which will create some fun and games later this month.

 

Been out in the park with little one this afternoon, and boy does it feel raw how it should do in early Dec unlike anything experienced last winter. Though not particularly cold atm, I guess it takes a while to climatise after successive months of mild. Certainly not a mild outlook ahead by any stretch of the imagination and the strengthening wind next week sourced from polar regions will make if feel cold next week, even if temps aren't spectacularly cold unless you're up in the northern hills enjoying the snow (or not, if in a blizzard).

 

The pattern could be alot worse with Tm rather than Pm being the dominant airmass with the more mobile Atlantic coming late weekend, of course. Ideally many would rather see a more blocked pattern to get a cold/wintry pattern locked in, but the weather will certainly be interesting for some of us next week with everything but the kitchen sink weather wise thrown at us.

Edited December 3, 2014 by Nick F

[Gael_Force]

Would trust MOGREPs ahead of any other chart. That model nailed the failed easterly in Dec 2012, the cold spell in Late Jan-April 2013 and the failed attacks on the vortex in winter 2014.

 

Note, the Mogreps are only one week forecast whereas the others are for two weeks. It is into the second week where signal diverges - prefer to see the multi model one, myself.

 

[Dr. Astro]

Seeing as we appear to be in an MJO led base state at present, should modelling firm up on us progressing into phase 6/7 then some 'stellar' charts showing up in the NWP can be expected soon.

 

Hi Crewe,

 

Good call - I would expect (*IF* the MJO forecasts backed by most models get to Phase 7) the models to be showing different scenario's by early next week & the work done by Judah Cohen & his team for a colder winter than usual to start to rear it's head within the modelling outputs.

Edited December 3, 2014 by Dr. Astro

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hi Crewe,

 

Good call - I would expect (*IF* the MJO forecasts backed by most models get to Phase 7) the models to be showing different scenario's by early next week & the work done by Judah Cohen & his team for a colder winter than usual to start to rear it's head within the modelling outputs.

 

The ECM MJO forecast looks well off to me but cannot simply be ignored either.

[Gael_Force]

The ECM MJO forecast looks well off to me but cannot simply be ignored either.

 

I saved this image from a post in the last thread, just to follow verification. ECM and UKMO were on the right track.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

I saved this image from a post in the last thread, just to follow verification. ECM and UKMO were on the right track.

 

 

 

True, but it's certainly comforting that the UKMO model is progressing the MJO favourably. We'll just have to wait and see. The ECM solution could be disastrous, not just in terms of this month but also further ahead into Jan.

[Dr. Astro]

The ECM MJO forecast looks well off to me but cannot simply be ignored either.

 

Yes, the ECMF is not what you want to happen, thats the Circle of Doom scenario I was talking about earlier, but it's not got too much support at the moment, with that said, it can still go that way.

 

All to play for it seems.

[shaky]

Shortwave virtually non existent on this run/does not deepen!!! When comparing to yesterday's charts its quite a big change! ! Many more changes to come possibly! !

[shaky]

Oh man here we go again! !! Fi at 96 hours maybe!! Ukmo more amplified and it looks to me as though the northwesterly is getting stronger by the minute for Sunday! !!