Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

[Thunder Snow]

Hopefully the storm that's show in on the models, are the first sign net weather's winter forecast coming true.

[shaky]

Horrible ECM mean from D7-10: 

 

EDM1-168-3.GIF  EDM1-240-12.GIF

 

Not a great D10 mean: EDH1-240.GIF-5.png

 

GEM mean at T174: gens-21-1-174-2.png JMA Op: J168-21.GIF

 

UKMO FAX shows no northerly this Friday: fax72s.gif

 

Differences in the 8-10 day means still obvious:

 

 test8.gif  NOAA: 814day.03 (20).gif

 

More in line with GFS and that is because they only used 10% of the ECM Mean, where as they used 40% of the ECM mean on the 6-10 day mean. It appears they currently (strongly) favour the GFS solution.

the northerly is just as strong as the updated fax charts this morning!! Theres more northerly component to it than north westerly which is what it wad showing this morning! ! Regardless the pattern after the northerly is well set so wont make much of a difference!!

[Polar Maritime]

I have had to delete some posts, Please only discuss Model Output in here.

 

Thanks, PM

Edited December 2, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

I think you got the wrong end of the stick old chap, I was referring to a possible future cooling event way beyond the strat warming effects arrive. I expect several strong cold spells through the heart of this winter. As for my meteorological knowledge, I don't do too badly :-)

The warmings during November got us to where we are now, pretty much resulting in blocking developing but with the dominant lobe of the polar vortex being directed to the Greenland locale. At this point the polar vortex is recovering as expected so we need further wave breaking to occur to hopefully bring cold to the UK. At this point there are little signs of this happening. Hopefully we will start to see the signs over the coming days.

ECM ens, pretty much a deep UK trough for week 2. So wet, wet and wet. Oh and near average temperatures (slightly below daytime maxima but above average minima most likely due to the wind and rain)

Edited December 2, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

Those who say its bleak this or dire that or even run of the mill are wrong in my opinion, we now have polar maritime incursions on the way for the first time and with patience which some clearly don't have..the deeper cold will come. If the models were showing a sw/ne jet profile with long draw south westerly mush I would agree it's dire or bleak or whatever but it's clearly not the case.

[terrier]

The warmings during November got us to where we are now, pretty much resulting in blocking developing but with the dominant lobe of the polar vortex being directed to the Greenland locale. At this point the polar vortex is recovering as expected so we need further wave breaking to occur to hopefully bring cold to the UK. At this point there are little signs of this happening. Hopefully we will start to see the signs over the coming days.

ECM ens, pretty much a deep UK trough for week 2. So wet, wet and wet. Oh and near average temperatures (slightly below daytime maxima but above average minima most likely due to the wind and rain)

yeah not great outlook captain. Just hope we see downgrades on the 950mb low on the model outputs. I'm feeling a sense of de ja vu of last year this evening.

[Frosty.]

I dont think they are wrong because thsy are expressing a personal preference. But i dont get the liking for cold wet windy northwesterlies as the runs expect. So what if they arent mild southwesterlies? Ifits not bringing a deep cold snowy spell which is what most want to see, itmight as well be mild.

Patience grasshopper..in the meantime, bring on the pm incursions..thank you and good night :-)

[damianslaw]

Models in tandem today with the projection for a deep trough to become established over the country next week, before then, fairly settled in the main, with cold frosty nights and chilly bright days with a weak front on Friday producing light rain for most and snow on higher ground in the north. Sunday will see a repeat performance but with a more active front and thereafter polar maritime air again so chance of wintry showers to modest levels in NW parts.

 

Into next week - the Jetstream looks like becoming preety active and there is a strong likelihood of a deep low tracking just to the north of the country becoming quite a feature and perhaps dropping southwards a little with cold polar maritime air being directed down from the NW as the week wears on - hence the reason for the BBC suggesting eventually a lot of snow in the north..

 

A very 'seasonal outlook' on the horizon bit of everything eventually for most, calm sunny frosty conditions, light rain/snow on northern high ground, becoming potentially stormy with heavy rain, and the chance of more significant low level snow in the north.

[Team Jo]

A couple of posts have been moved into banter/ramps.. Please could we try and keep the kind of 'if it's not snowing in my garden then the whole of the UK might as well be in a heatwave' type comments in there? Ta!

[knocker]

 

Michael Ventrice â€@MJVentrice

Oh where or where is that Date Line Ridge? I thought this was suppose to be a repeat of last winter?

 

Ho, Ho

Edited December 2, 2014 by knocker

[Snowman.]

Little feature that has appeared in 18z run.

 

Could just be the 18z run with its normal ways but does need monitoring.

[Zenarcher]

There seems to be a chance of a potential storm arriving at the start of next week. At the moment the models are still unsure of the track it will take and each of them have shown us what may happen so I'm going to go through each one,

 

Tracks North

 

The ECM seems very keen and has consistently shown it to head in a Northerly direction. It makes it's way to the South of Greenland on Monday and deepens rapidly down to 960mb.

 

 

On Tuesday the storm then moves South East and sits over the North of Scotland bringing plenty of unsettled weather across most of the UK and Ireland,

 

 

Strong North Westerly winds affect Western parts especially over Ireland where gusts are shown to reach around 65 to 75mph,

 

 

The GFS earlier agreed with this route but has recently changed for a more North Easterly path. The UKMO looks similar to the ECM along with the JMA model so there is at the moment a good chance it could take this route.

 

Tracks North East

 

Both the GFS Parallel and NAVGEM from earlier today demonstrated that if it takes this route it could turn into a serious storm for the Northern half of the country. This morning on the 06z GFS parallel it showed the low deepen down to 940mb and bringing very high mean wind speeds along with gusts over 90mph for the North.

 

 

But as the GEM shows tracking North East doesn't mean a huge storm it all depends on the positioning of the jet stream something the models will handle better when it gets closer.

 

 

But even the GEM shows a deep low to the North eventually forming although nothing as severe the GFS Parallel showed us.

 

 

Tracks East

 

The 18z GFS which has just recently come out shows this along with the 12z NAVGEM which looks very similar. The low crosses the Atlantic and deepens as it does.

 

 

If it did take this route then the Southern half would take the strong winds as the gust chart below shows about 55 to 65mph.

 

 

Overall the models seem to agree on a unsettled start to next week the question is where and how bad? Or will it even happen at all? The 18z GFS Parallel shows this could also happen as it passes over the South of Scotland not deepening at all.

[MR EXTREMES]

Those who say its bleak this or dire that or even run of the mill are wrong in my opinion, we now have polar maritime incursions on the way for the first time and with patience which some clearly don't have..the deeper cold will come. If the models were showing a sw/ne jet profile with long draw south westerly mush I would agree it's dire or bleak or whatever but it's clearly not the case.

Absolutely frosty there's clear indication that this what's showing will pass and whether it be next week of 3 weeks time we will see more interesting charts again !

That's not to say we don't have something for some with interest.

Let's see in a week or two whether the vortex dominated pattern is likely to stick around because it's a odds on bet it won't.

It's still an evolving pattern that happens to be stuck with the Azores in the way and perhaps even the Russia high causing a block but not the block thats favouring us right now.

But as u suggest we are far from finished with winter perhaps the disheartened posters could come back in March and tell us what a rubbish winter we had, but it's far to early to discount anything wintry.

The mjo is yet to progress until it does we are stuck in this pattern.

Although I'm still confident that the retreated heights over Russia may head back west.

It's also a possibility we may see the jet buckle in time with possible southerly tracking low pressure systems in time.

It's notoriously common in winter for modelling to be erratic and push systems ne although I'm not seeing systems pushing rapidly ne into Scandinavia I suspect over the coming week the systems will take a more South East path how far south east is open to debate.

By far winters not over just starting nothing above average to be fair so hold on the roller coaster is just starting.

[Mucka]

Uninspiring output mostly  this evening it has to be said with GFS getting flatter by the run.

Tomorrow is another day (apparently)

 

 

Hopefully we will see a lot more of this sort of thing at day 10 and we kick on from there.

Edited December 2, 2014 by Mucka

[BlueHedgehog074]

There seems to be a chance of a potential storm arriving at the start of next week. At the moment the models are still unsure of the track it will take and each of them have shown us what may happen so I'm going to go through each one,

 

Tracks North

 

The ECM seems very keen and has consistently shown it to head in a Northerly direction. It makes it's way to the South of Greenland on Monday and deepens rapidly down to 960mb.

 

ecm.png

 

On Tuesday the storm then moves South East and sits over the North of Scotland bringing plenty of unsettled weather across most of the UK and Ireland,

 

ecm2.png

 

Strong North Westerly winds affect Western parts especially over Ireland where gusts are shown to reach around 65 to 75mph,

 

ecmwind.png

 

The GFS earlier agreed with this route but has recently changed for a more North Easterly path. The UKMO looks similar to the ECM along with the JMA model so there is at the moment a good chance it could take this route.

 

Tracks North East

 

Both the GFS Parallel and NAVGEM from earlier today demonstrated that if it takes this route it could turn into a serious storm for the Northern half of the country. This morning on the 06z GFS parallel it showed the low deepen down to 940mb and bringing very high mean wind speeds along with gusts over 90mph for the North.

 

gfsp.png

 

But as the GEM shows tracking North East doesn't mean a huge storm it all depends on the positioning of the jet stream something the models will handle better when it gets closer.

 

gem.png

 

But even the GEM shows a deep low to the North eventually forming although nothing as severe the GFS Parallel showed us.

 

gem2.png

 

Tracks East

 

The 18z GFS which has just recently come out shows this along with the 12z NAVGEM which looks very similar. The low crosses the Atlantic and deepens as it does.

 

east.png

 

If it did take this route then the Southern half would take the strong winds as the gust chart below shows about 55 to 65mph.

 

east2.png

 

Overall the models seem to agree on a unsettled start to next week the question is where and how bad? Or will it even happen at all? The 18z GFS Parallel shows this could also happen as it passes over the South of Scotland not deepening at all.

A handy, informative, post regarding next weeks possible Atlantic storm. Good work.  Liked the way you drew the black lines to represent the storm's possible paths. Gives beginners a good overview about what sort of things to expect. While, for now, it looks likely the UK could see some fairly monstrous Low Pressure systems next week with possible gales, rain, and hill snow, at times, it's certainly not a done deal yet. 

 

Despite not being an expert on stormy weather, would agree the way the Low interacts with the Jet Stream, and possibly the way the Low engages with the warm and cold air masses, will probably need watching to see what impact they have on the Low's travel and intensity. I remember actually reading something a little while back about the idea that if a storm gets too deep and intense, it can suddenly get steered away Northwards (assuming it was already tracking in an Easterly direction beforehand). 

 

May likely be wrong, but personally feel overall (bar the exception of the GFS 18Z Parallel), that the models have over-powered that stormy cyclonic orb. So probably wouldn't be too surprised to see this get tamed down on future runs. 

[Paul_1978]

Hopefully the storm that's show in on the models, are the first sign net weather's winter forecast coming true.

Excellent point - the forecast did say a potentially stormy mid Dec IIRC, and then......

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

There seems there's going to be some dramatic weather coming within next 7 days, will it be that storm which ominously on some outputs has tracked further south.  We aren't in the same ball park as last year.  Period 5-8 is important for me with Full Moon and apogee, and also a solar 'swipe' due to hit us tomorrow.  Models are indicating some potential 'severe' weather approaching.....I think we'll see some further short term shifts.  Very interesting comments from OMM re the Jetstream.

I'm far from despondent, even with the current projected NW flow its pretty cold, I think this week model watching will crank the ante a little bit...and mild won't be used much if one is accurate.

 

 

UKMO T144

 

 

ECM T144......very similar...onto this

 

 

That's severe and for me UKMO would be the same...... 

 

 

BFTP

Edited December 3, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Geordiesnow]

Certainly an interesting outlook with fairly brief but cold PM NW'lies and the potential(but only just that) of a deep low influencing our weather. 

 

Quite seasonal and last year is not going to affect my hopes of a severe gale event occuring especially when you look at the broader picture of one that is not good if its blocking your after so lets enjoy(or endure) the other side of winter and that is an active Atlantic. 

[West is Best]

A very interesting 0z GFS again with not one but two PV movements. If we didn't have a huge body of water between us and the source these polar maritime north-westerlies would be massive snow events. Unfortunately, as we know, the north Atlantic sits between. Nevertheless, for those considering the medium and long-term potential, the fact that the polar vortex is on the move opens up huge potential.

 

 

However, I'm not too happy about the persistent Azores high and would be interested in others' thoughts on that. 

[Polar Maritime]

The GFSP this morning continues to show lots of cold Pm shots throughout the run, With Snow over Northern hills and maybe down to lower levels at times further South, And possible stormy conditions up North around the 9th. Quite a Wintry period coming up and a good start to the new season. Already last nights temps dropped colder than of all last Winter alone!

 

ECMWF also ends on a Wintry note with a cold N/W flow - 

Edited December 3, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 6 charts

ECM

UKMO

GFS

GEM

So the continued trend for much more unsettled conditions to occur next week, though the track of the potential storm in 7 days time is far from set in stone. The GFS and GEM hold the low to the north of the UK whilst the ECM shows a weaker feature which pushes into Scotland (still producing strong winds though). Further on, the UKMO looks to be the most interesting with another ridge pushing into the Arctic from Russia, that would have implications further down the line, though likely the UK would remain wet. That said the UKMO bomber looks like staying north of the UK going by the day 6 chart, so potentially we might just about get away with it, though secondary features may develop when we get to the earlier time frames.

ECM not looking very consistent as usual for week 2, so lets hope this little feature gets dropped at day 9

Edited December 3, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

All the models want to run a disturbance in the trough across the uk mid/end next week. At the moment, that looks pretty dangerous. Nearer the time it could be less so. The London ECM ens wind spikes later will be interesting re this.

With the week 2 Canadian vortex retreating to the far n of Canada/nw Greenland and the northern arm losing some strength as the uppers in Eastern Canada ease off in intensity, I wonder what the main driver will become in the n Atlantic basin? Will the Atlantic high just ease in ? Will the Siberian edge west? Will we end up with a fairly stagnant upper trough around nw Europe? the anomolys aren't currently large enough to show a strong likelihood as we progress through week 2. Assume that will change as we head through the next few days.

Edited December 3, 2014 by bluearmy

[Duane S.]

D9 on the ECM (and its not alone) not looking good for Eastern Coastal areas. Potential nasty storm surge scenario.

[terrier]

Well the deep low is still across the models in one form or another this morning. With plenty of polar maritime air in the mix. But unless your on the highest peaks of the North just expect plenty of rainfall. But if your in Scotland you could see a lot of snowfall into next week.

[knocker]

The ECM Global Surface take on the storm(s) is interesting. It has the main low T168 Stornoway with strong winds western Ireland. 24 hours later it has a developing low SW approaches which rapidly develops and zips through Cornwall into the North Sea giving strong gales down the east coast. Definitely not one that will verify one trusts. One way or tuther a storm of some description is looking likely that hopefully will be downplayed in the next few days.

Edited December 3, 2014 by knocker