Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

[Nouska]

Thanks Knocker but it was the control run (blue) I was interested in, not anomaly's.

 

Have a look atthe Weerplaza ensembles for SW Holland.

 

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim&element=&r=zuidwest

 

Snow for the last two days and a northerly the two days prior to that - it is not warm!

[blizzard81]

Hello hello hello. Evenin' all. 

 

This chap, once of this parish, reckons it's beginning to look a bit like winter. So, time to dust off the almanacs, take out the crystal ball and maybe even lightly oil the sledge. As Ned Stark would say, winter is coming.

 

OK so the 12z GFS isn't a Buffalo lake effect blizzard, but there are some tasty upper temps showing at almost all stages of the run. The evolution near the end, whilst FI, looks plausible. It will be interesting to see if that accelerates forward as I suspect it might.

 

In other news: how is everyone?!

A great name from the past. I used to follow your posts with great interest, welcome back West is Best

Edited December 1, 2014 by blizzard81

[blizzard81]

Have a look atthe Weerplaza ensembles for SW Holland.

 

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim&element=&r=zuidwest

 

Snow for the last two days and a northerly the two days prior to that - it is not warm!

 

Have a look atthe Weerplaza ensembles for SW Holland.

 

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim&element=&r=zuidwest

 

Snow for the last two days and a northerly the two days prior to that - it is not warm!

That is much more helpful Nouska. I was just asking what synoptics the control is showing as I know by the ensembles it

is a cold run with some snow thrown in. Was wondering if it followed the operational run synoptic wise ?

[Mucka]

Scotland would be on its last legs if that chart comes to fruition, what is being firmed up is rather short cold snap, introducing relatively chilly upper air profile. Wintriness for the hills even down south. Possibly low-laying for some, if evaporative cooling comes into play. I'd say and that is not in dreamland. Which seems to always come to the attention of many on here, of course we are always searching for that freeze, but sometimes its good to take a step backwards.

And see what's in front of us.

image.jpgimage.jpg

 

 

Personally I have not commented much on Fridays "Northerly" because for me it will be a blink and you'll miss it affair anywhere away from high ground in the North and even there nothing special. Pretty typical December weather TBH.

As far as the shorter term and not crystal ball gazing goes I would be more inclined to concentrate on the second potential cold air incursion two or three days later (around a weeks time) as this on face value has more potential to deliver at least some falling wet snow to low levels, especially in the NW. Other than that in hi res section I will of course be watching how any rapid cyclogenesis develops.

Then, a step forward (or two) and back to crystal ball gazing and looking for that elusive cold spell. 

[fergieweather]

Well, fasten your seat belts everybody, it's going to get much colder during the middle third of Dec

...but not based on this evening's EC Monthly, which if anything has whiff of slight positive temperature anomalies into week 4 and very few genuinely cold solutions amongst postage stamps (or extended ENS site plumes) through weeks 3 & 4. So, thus far in broad alignment with GloSea5's take on things. But hey-ho, it's light years away in reliable timeframe.

[blizzard81]

...but not based on this evening's EC Monthly, which if anything has whiff of slight positive temperature anomalies into week 4 and very few genuinely cold solutions amongst postage stamps (or extended ENS site plumes) through weeks 3 & 4. So, thus far in broad alignment with GloSea5's take on things. But hey-ho, it's light years away in reliable timeframe.

 

...but not based on this evening's EC Monthly, which if anything has whiff of slight positive temperature anomalies into week 4 and very few genuinely cold solutions amongst postage stamps (or extended ENS site plumes) through weeks 3 & 4. So, thus far in broad alignment with GloSea5's take on things. But hey-ho, it's light years away in reliable timeframe.

Thanks Ian but I was referring to the middle third of Dec, not the 3 to 4 week time period. I made reference to the fact that it was too far away to say the cold would hang on for the Christmas week (3 weeks away) Thanks for the info all the same and like you say, 3 to 4 weeks is a long time in meteorology

Edited December 1, 2014 by blizzard81

[Barry12]

...but not based on this evening's EC Monthly, which if anything has whiff of slight positive temperature anomalies into week 4 and very few genuinely cold solutions amongst postage stamps (or extended ENS site plumes) through weeks 3 & 4. So, thus far in broad alignment with GloSea5's take on things. But hey-ho, it's light years away in reliable timeframe.

 

No disrespect, but Glosea was spectacularly wrong last winter though, didn't it go for a dry December?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I'm liking the look of the heights being modelled to rise over the Canadian mainland, and alot of warmth over the NE quarter of the states. 

Definitely think this will be the key to propping up heights over Greenland and lead to a much weaker jet leaving the Eastern Seaboard. Should this happen, I reckon we could be onto some much colder weather in the not too far future. 

As for the Siberian high, that can do whatever it wants for the time. It really is what happens over Canada that will influence us most further down the line. 

[fergieweather]

No disrespect, but Glosea was spectacularly wrong last winter though, didn't it go for a dry December?

Worth a look in detail at where we sit with previous syntheses and very latest (Nov) seasonal analysis: http://medcof.aemet.es/Medcof/events/medcof3/docMedcof3/presentaciones/MedCOF3_Brookshaw.pdf

[mushymanrob]

Hello hello hello. Evenin' all. 

 

This chap, once of this parish, reckons it's beginning to look a bit like winter.

In other news: how is everyone?!

Hello wib, good to see you old chap!

I see nothing though to get excited about. But for me if it isnt an all out raging blizzard it might as well be mild. The charts have a look of winter 83-4 about them, pm northwesterly with showers, some of wet snow.

[knocker]

Worth a look in detail at where we sit with previous syntheses and very latest (Nov) seasonal analysis: http://medcof.aemet.es/Medcof/events/medcof3/docMedcof3/presentaciones/MedCOF3_Brookshaw.pdf

 

Thanks for that and the previous post which supports most other available evidence that I've seen.

[ukpaul]

Thanks for that and the previous post which supports most other available evidence that I've seen.

 

"Overall, no clear-cut conclusion."

 

Yep, that covers it pretty much......

[Winter Cold]

Interesting how even the MO are saying their models are going against the data and theories, which we have been discussing recently. I suppose this winter might be the ultimate test.

 

We just have to hope the models are wrong as thats a bad update for coldies like me from the ECM32 and Glosea. It is encouraging though that the link basicaly states that there is no confidence, so at least we wont be wasting our time looking at the models each day!

 

Let the fun continue

[Hocus Pocus]

...but not based on this evening's EC Monthly, which if anything has whiff of slight positive temperature anomalies into week 4 and very few genuinely cold solutions amongst postage stamps (or extended ENS site plumes) through weeks 3 & 4. So, thus far in broad alignment with GloSea5's take on things. But hey-ho, it's light years away in reliable timeframe.

I haven't forgotten the ECM monthlies from last year when they kept telling us of a change in the pattern, it was a bit like watching the outer reaches of FI on the GFS. Of course they may still be right but I have very little faith in anything over 14 days let alone seasonal models. Edited December 2, 2014 by Hocus Pocus

[fergieweather]

I haven't forgotten the ECM monthlies from last year when they kept telling us of a change in the pattern, it was a bit like watching the outer reaches of FI on the GFS. Of course they may still be right but I have very little faith in anything over 14 days let alone seasonal models.

Disagree on first sentence (I recall well the persistent zonal & routinely deeply cyclonic signature it accurately offered almost every run!) but largely subscribe to your second point!

[marksiwnc]

Disagree on first sentence (I recall well the persistent zonal & routinely deeply cyclonic signature it accurately offered almost every run!) but largely subscribe to your second point!

Yes the models have been very volatile the last month or so. It's probably due to the usual Atlantic being held at bay. Once the Atlantic comes to play a bit then I think we will know a bit more detail for further ahead. But I think any Atlantic driven weather will be short lived as once a pattern starts it's hard to shift. Do you reckon there is a chance of the pv moving over Scandinavia ian?? That's my guess at the next move

[Chris K]

Worth a look in detail at where we sit with previous syntheses and very latest (Nov) seasonal analysis: http://medcof.aemet.es/Medcof/events/medcof3/docMedcof3/presentaciones/MedCOF3_Brookshaw.pdf

 

Thanks for this - Have only quickly skimmed through tonight but an extremely interesting look into the amount of model analysis work that has gone on there.

 

It will be interesting to look at again in various stages throughout the next 3 months. Plus I assume a hindsight analysis would be done next year like this one did?

Edited December 2, 2014 by Chris K

[SE Blizzards]

Disagree on first sentence (I recall well the persistent zonal & routinely deeply cyclonic signature it accurately offered almost every run!) but largely subscribe to your second point!

 

There we have it, from the horses mouth so to speak.

 

Anything past 14 days (10 at a push in my book) is not worth worrying about. 

I can never understand those who get so hooked up and worried when LR models (especially seasonal ones) show no sign of cold.

 

Anyway, looking at the 18Z gefs at Day 10 there is just enough there to keep coldies at least a 'little' interested.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=240

 

We're only at the very start of Winter 2014/15, so onwards and upwards i say.

Edited December 2, 2014 by SE Blizzards

[Mucka]

GFS a tad more Northerly feed on Friday but the real cold Northwesterly arrives two or three days later.

 

 

That would allow snow showers to low levels int he Northwest if it came off.

The parallel isn't quite so good with a flatter Westerly feed and still has the nasty storm of the 18z.with a chilly Northwesterly following behind

 

 

And goes on to produce an even more potent Northwesterly in FI

 

 

 

UKMO sticking with a brief Northerly Friday

 

 

 

And has a sharper trough day 7 into Central Northern Europe and height rises through Scandinavia and is also much more amplified upstream.

 

Edited December 2, 2014 by Mucka

[Mucka]

GFS 00z ensembles are firming up on a chilly zonal spell setting up next week but no signal as yet for a prolonged cold shot with blocking.

 

Edited December 2, 2014 by Mucka

[knocker]

I'll skip the ECM monthly update as obviously people aren't interested in them and anyway and fergie has already covered it.

 

The T1534 run this morning. After a brief appearance of the Azores ridge at T96 the Atlantic takes over with the main player being the intense low at T156. Temps quite variable from below to above average due to volatility if the analysis. The ops has a similar unsettled analysis but treats the deep depression much differently by tracking it further north on the jet.

 

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited December 2, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

The NCEP T240 ens Look familiar? The 00z GFS anomaly still has the very weak trough running SE  but it doesn't alter the overall picture and soon disappears leaving thr familiar N/S split.

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited December 2, 2014 by knocker

[Will Padz]

Looking like a cooler week ahead with some wintery interest for some later this week according to 0z gfs....

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 6 charts

ECM

UKMO

GEM

GFS

Parallel

 

So only the UKMO again is going for a more northerly component at day 4, beyond that there are some differences in respect to how the next trough approaches the UK (this is mainly due to the tropical storm ejecting into the main Atlantic jet). Some flat (GFS parallel the extreme) whilst others are more amplified and bring another pulse of cool polar maritime air (GFS the opposite). 

Beyond this, quite simply given current develops, how do we remove the pv lobe over Greenland? It can't move to the other side of the pole due to Arctic heights over the pole and it will start to struggle to get east of Europe as the Siberian high backs eastward. So it pretty much defaults the location to our north/north west.

So beyond the brief cold snap this coming weekend, it looks rather wet and windy with temperatures probably a little below normal.

ECM looking more realistic for week 2 this morning

Flatter upstream with a deep trough through most of Europe. Wet or very wet for some.

Edited December 2, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

The gefs by the end of week 2 paints an interesting NH profile as the vortex takes residence the other side of the arctic.

And best not discuss the consistency of fi ECM as it's only going to lead to aggro somewhere along the line!

Edited December 2, 2014 by bluearmy