Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

[Mucka]

Quite a bit of uncertainty just 4 days out as to how amplified the pattern will be from there but 18z ensemble at least support another cold shot next week though how cold and how far south it can penetrate can't be known. There are a handful of runs that one have strong height rises from the SW and bring drier milder weather for a time  and more that have a shallower trough but the majority going for  a reload.

 

 

Further into FI the signal for pressure to rise from the SW is quite strong within this ensemble suite at least, hope that is gone tomorrow.

Edited December 10, 2014 by Mucka

[snowangel32]

The vortex getting an absoulute battering on the latest runs. But still we manage to stay on the azores high most the way plz correct me if i am wrong, only really breaking free towards xmas day which is intresting. But its clear to see the models are flip flopping and have no clue yet so i think all scenarios are still on the table its going to be a nail bitter.

[MR EXTREMES]

Cold bullying it's way into Eastern Europe which can only aid further on this month.

Purely speculative but looking at the gfs model as early as 144hrs is that a strat warming going on?

Can't post charts as I'm on my phone.

But broadly speaking the vortex has moved closer to Scandinavia with lower heights trying to dive southeast sooner or later surely the Azores high that just wobbles around to our South west never going to far is either going back South or moving further north into the Atlantic making it easier for low pressure to dive se .

Interesting that Moscow only has top temp of 0c which is rather high but as I suggested colder air on the models does look like setting up to our East.

There's no doubt though that the change to colder climes in the uk is a slow process and I think a lot of the top posters have suggested a different jan.

For us in the south there's no wintry stuff on offer although it's still chilly but nothing to exciting yet.

But slowly there are changes showing and northern half of the uk is certainly in the cold zone with pulses of polar even artic air source from time to time which is nothing to be sniffed at.

 

t168 ecm erm vortex is a little messy certainly fighting to escape eviction but looks like a fail.

and its at 168 which is a move forward closer to the more realistic timeframe.

 

although hard to tell when fi is but id be saying 96hrs would be close to fi.

anyway slowly but surely things moving forwards towards change.

 

Edited December 11, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[Iceaxecrampon]

00Z on the disappointing side -  some will say a shocker? for the longer term - strong azores sliding across into Europe and keeping the Northern Lows at bay.

 

Meanwhile this has promise for Friday mornings event(s)

 

 

More ups and downs as per usual.

 

Ian

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 6 charts

UKMO

GEM

GFS

Parallel

Perhaps sign of a possible northerly, GEM the only one really going for this. The rest tend to hold the Azores high too close to us, in fact early next week temperatures could be back into double figures under a broader warm sector. Before then Saturday looks cold.

[terrier]

Well after this weekend looks like we will be seeing temps recover. Looks like the Azores high will move into Europe settling things down and becoming dryer and milder. Only the gem wants a northerly next week. But both the gfs ECM want to move us into a milder period. Which ties in well with Ian fergusons comments yesterday.

[MR EXTREMES]

Well after this weekend looks like we will be seeing temps recover. Looks like the Azores high will move into Europe settling things down and becoming dryer and milder. Only the gem wants a northerly next week. But both the gfs ECM want to move us into a milder period. Which ties in well with Ian fergusons comments yesterday.

im sorry but the azores heights does not move into europe it stays to our sw maybe a little movement east but not really a huge change from the models other than the ecm at t240 although looking better northern hemipshere wise ie arctic areas.

 

but over all a continuation of the same weather type still chance of more snow for the north and brief milder spells as systems pass through.

[karlos1983]

Nice ECM this morning, heights over NE Canada, definitely has potential!

However I'd like to bank the GFS(P) for Christmas day, Seasonal indeed!

Edited December 11, 2014 by karlos1983

[TEITS]

Looks like the cold NW,ly around the 18th Dec has disappeared from the output this morning. This is reflected on the ensembles with a rise of 3C compared to yesterdays 0Z.

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20141211/00/t850Cambridgeshire.png

 

The only exception is Scotland could remain on the cold side especially the N.

[IDO]

The much signposted upcoming pattern is entrenched in the D10 charts:

 

GEM ECM:

 

GFS P: 

 

A very Atlantic driven period for the next 10 days plus. Obviously ECM has potential but I always discard the amplification (from D8-10) and look at the overall flow, especially when it has little support. Down south surface wise it translates to average temps overall: 

 

 

The GEFS at D16 show no signal for a MLB or HLB in our region and the mean remains similar to D10:

 

So the most likely solution till the end of December (at the moment) is a westerly flow with a mix of PM and TM shots. The mean of the 850s matches the 30 year average for London so normal December fare:

 

 

I would say 75% certainty for the next 10 days then dropping to about 50% in that pattern continuing till D16. The extra uncertainty is in how the Canadian PV lobe is dealt with. The overall consensus is that it will move east in the first 10 days then return back towards Greenland/NE Canada afterwards.

 

 

 

[weather_it_will]

Looks like a mini-heatwave on the way if the ECM 00z is to be believed.

 

GFS not showing anything cold athe moment, but this could all be the sign of changes to come.

 

 

[Recretos]

Close (relatively) to the ECM mean yesterday was JMA 12z.

 

 

 

Since it goes only to 192h on Meteociel, here is 264h:
 

 

[phil nw.]

Not a good outlook next week if looking to develop any real cold away from the far north.

 

The models all show a trend to build the Azores high towards Iberia/W.France  which will mean a warmer Atlantic flow for us.

Any cold pm incursions look more confined to the far north of the UK and likely to be fairly brief.

 

The charts  already posted by the Captain and IDO above tell the story and support the earlier NOAA  8-14 charts from yesterday's 12z  outputs.

The ens graph for Warks underlines the fairly average 850,s for the next 2 weeks too.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2014121100/graphe3_1000_265_99___.gif

 

I wish i could pick out some possible highlights in that lot but really it's a case of hoping the flat upstream NA pattern starts to show some changes as there seems little prospect of anything developing to our east at the moment wrt any Russian block.

[nick sussex]

Looking at the ECM ensemble spreads, still some solutions that take low heights se into mainland Europe with the Azores high displaced further to the west.

 

The ECM operational run at T240hrs does look better upstream and is similar in trend to last nights run.

 

In terms of the longer range ensembles they show some colder solutions but nothing overtly so, the operational run is at the top end on days 9 and 10.

 

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim

Edited December 11, 2014 by nick sussex

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Nothing like an Azores High for ruining your Christmas. 

 

There's still hope in the GFS though.

[Summer Sun]

For anyone unaware t12 to t72 for UKMO is back on meteociel

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021

 

Tomorrows charts

 

 

 

 

 

[Marty G]

Morning All...

 

Dont post much as I am not as experienced as the vast majortiy in here. Have been reading and `lurking` on this forum for a few years now. Hats off to you all knowlegeable posters however with this mornings output in particular there are conflicting issues with regards to the placement of the Azores high and its ramifactions for us in the UK... for eaxmple..

 

Not a good outlook next week if looking to develop any real cold away from the far north.

 

The models all show a trend to build the Azores high towards Iberia/W.France  which will mean a warmer Atlantic flow for us.

Any cold pm incursions look more confined to the far north of the UK and likely to be fairly brief.

 

then the next post from NS

 

 

Looking at the ECM ensemble spreads, still some solutions that take low heights se into mainland Europe with the Azores high displaced further to the west.

 

 

Contradicting posts.  As an avid follower and appreciate everyones valued input, I do find however that these kind of statements are very confusing for the more `inexperienced` and newbies like myself who are constantly trying to learn and interpret charts etc.... 

 

Very confusing......  

[Team Jo]

Morning All...

 

Dont post much as I am not as experienced as the vast majortiy in here. Have been reading and `lurking` on this forum for a few years now. Hats off to you all knowlegeable posters however with this mornings output in particular there are conflicting issues with regards to the placement of the Azores high and its ramifactions for us in the UK... for eaxmple..

 

 

then the next post from NS

 

 

 

Contradicting posts.  As an avid follower and appreciate everyones valued input, I do find however that these kind of statements are very confusing for the more `inexperienced` and newbies like myself who are constantly trying to learn and interpret charts etc.... 

 

Very confusing......  

 

 

Hi Marty,

 

I'm sure someone will jump in to explain the above statements - but what I would say is the charts/data are exactly that - open to interpretation. It's not an exact science, so one person may view the data differently to another. It isn't quite as clear cut as right or wrong....

[Ali1977]

I don't think anyone needs to worry too much about charts after day 8. I have been watching carefully at what is happening in the alps as they need more snow before I go Skiing in 3 weeks,  the huge differences in weather fronts every run prove the models have yet to grasp what is happening. The 18Z said 32cm falling in the French Alps next Wed, the 00Z says Ocms....... I'm hoping a swing back to a Northerly in the UK next week, pushing the moisture south over the Alps.

[nick sussex]

Morning All...

 

Dont post much as I am not as experienced as the vast majortiy in here. Have been reading and `lurking` on this forum for a few years now. Hats off to you all knowlegeable posters however with this mornings output in particular there are conflicting issues with regards to the placement of the Azores high and its ramifactions for us in the UK... for eaxmple..

 

 

then the next post from NS

 

 

 

Contradicting posts.  As an avid follower and appreciate everyones valued input, I do find however that these kind of statements are very confusing for the more `inexperienced` and newbies like myself who are constantly trying to learn and interpret charts etc.... 

 

Very confusing......  

The ECM spreads show a cluster of solutions that take low pressure more into the UK than to the east and this means that those have the Azores high further to the west.

 

In terms of the overall pattern theres not much difference between the outputs its just this smallish detail relatively speaking on a global scale.

 

There is no chance of a pattern change whilst heights remain low over Greenland, we're really just talking about the direction of the flow into the UK in relation to low pressure placement.

 

You'll see the ECM operational run develops high pressure in ne Canada and begins to lift some of those low heights away from especially western Greenland, thats a start but we need to see this modelled within T144hrs.

 

I hope this clears up any confusion, there is no concrete signs yet of a big change in pattern, but some uncertainty as to exactly the flow into the UK and placement of the Azores high.

[IDO]

Morning All...

 

Dont post much as I am not as experienced as the vast majortiy in here. Have been reading and `lurking` on this forum for a few years now. Hats off to you all knowlegeable posters however with this mornings output in particular there are conflicting issues with regards to the placement of the Azores high and its ramifactions for us in the UK... for eaxmple..

 

 

then the next post from NS

 

 

 

Contradicting posts.  As an avid follower and appreciate everyones valued input, I do find however that these kind of statements are very confusing for the more `inexperienced` and newbies like myself who are constantly trying to learn and interpret charts etc.... 

 

Very confusing......  

 

IMO: The long wave pattern is reasonably set; Nick was looking at the possibility of getting more cold from the current setup rather than the milder output of this morning. Both are possibilities and the models have been flip flopping with regard to PM>TM or TM>PM. At the current time the latter is trending. With the Azores further west there is a chance of some transient amplification of LP systems from the NW and a toppler bringing a colder upper flow mainly to Northern areas.

[mushymanrob]

..more wintry weather on the way next week too..oh this is so much more interesting than the mild dross we had in Oct and Nov.

 

where?

 

 

 

sorry karl old chap, but theres nothing wintry next week on these runs except for the far north. in fact its looking like the mild weather you and most others dont like looks like being pretty dominant IF these charts varify... of course they may well change, but i believe these charts

 

 

do support a gradual change from a north of west upper flow to a westerly with the flattend jet north of a strong azores high... and this is manifest in the current opperational runs.

[phil nw.]

Morning All...

 

Dont post much as I am not as experienced as the vast majortiy in here. Have been reading and `lurking` on this forum for a few years now. Hats off to you all knowlegeable posters however with this mornings output in particular there are conflicting issues with regards to the placement of the Azores high and its ramifactions for us in the UK... for eaxmple..

 

 

then the next post from NS

 

 

 

Contradicting posts.  As an avid follower and appreciate everyones valued input, I do find however that these kind of statements are very confusing for the more `inexperienced` and newbies like myself who are constantly trying to learn and interpret charts etc.... 

 

Very confusing......  

Hi Marty.

Nick S and IDO have pretty much explained things i think.

Mine was a view of the operational outputs and a glance at the mean charts.

Nick S was looking at some of the ECM ens members showing the high further west.

When things look a little grim we sometimes look for some hope in the ensembles which can sometimes be a sign of change.

Hope that helps.

[johnholmes]

Hi Marty,

 

I'm sure someone will jump in to explain the above statements - but what I would say is the charts/data are exactly that - open to interpretation. It's not an exact science, so one person may view the data differently to another. It isn't quite as clear cut as right or wrong....

 

A very sensible post thanks Jo and what Jo says is a good guide to new folk. In time you will learn those that look for cold in a set of charts and those that look for mild in the same set of charts. 

As with this morning from Marty please ask folk to explain why they see a certain thing in a model. Don't be afraid to ask and if you think it might help then please pm me. Always happy to chat weather with anyone away from the sometimes rather frenetic posting in this thread. 

Edited December 11, 2014 by Paul

[Marty G]

Guys & Gals.....

 

Many thanks for the responses....I appreciate them and how everyones viewpoint and take ont he outputs are interpretated individually... i am forever learning!!!!

 

keep up the fantatstic effort all....  it really makes this forum the best place to be for the likes of myself and other `wannabes` lol..