Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

[Polar Maritime]

The outlook shown by the models is what we would expect of during very early Winter. As Nick states above, Lot's of interesting Wintry weather on the way over the next week or so at least, Where now-casting comes into play.. Already had a Snow shower here this afternoon. 

[SMU]

Try this one Mushy

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1947/archivesnh-1947-1-18-0-0.png

 

An interesting development this morning in the lowly 6z GFS & though the NAVGEM, both slow up the system over NE states with some modest heights ahead of it-

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014120506/gfsnh-0-150.png?6

 

Allowing for some trough disruption & the subsequent system slides SE across the UK reinforcing the northerly flow !

one to watch...

 

as for no snow unless you live on a Scottish mountain, some mild wishcasting there....

 

 

S

Edited December 5, 2014 by Steve Murr

[Tim Bland]

A very pleasing Gfs 06z op run again today, just as yesterday, indeed this looks better longer term with wintry potential. November was like watching paint dry model / weather wise but these charts are like a breath of fresh air with frequent cold incursions from the north west and any mild weather very brief and hardly worth a mention at all. Lots of cold, windy and showery weather with a wintry mix at times and cold enough for snow from time to time, especially but not exclusively in the north and on hills, frosty nights at times and I continue to be bemused by the continuing run of the mill, uninspiring comments which are really annoying as I think most coldies will agree that we are in a much better place than we were last month. I hope we see a deepening of the cold in the immediate run up to and during christmas and the way the 6z run finishes, the future could be bright..for the majority on here...cold zonality here we come

 

Mild mush, once again you are the weakest link..GOODBYE

 

To my eyes the models havent changed that much in 24hrs?!  All we see is a variaiton on what trajectory the lows hit us at and how much PM flow we can achieve. 

Edited December 5, 2014 by Polar Maritime
To remove personal remark.

[IDO]

Well, THE MODELS showed the chance of sleet/snow today for my local and it did indeed snow today, and the last time I checked I don't live up a Scottish mountain.

 

The average snowfall for Belfast is 4.6 cm (3 days) in December so it is not unusual for some snow, especially as you are 350 feet higher above sea level than Belfast. I think what Frosty was suggesting is that the forecast just suggests normal December fare. Of course it is better than last year, but that was a one off, as was the  December 2010 snow event. What it expected in the next week or two is just average December weather. Most are searching for a widespread snow event and blocking and there is no sign of this in the next 2 weeks at least. I am not expecting, before Christmas, anything in the south apart from a chilly feel for the odd day here and there :

 

[Methuselah]

I'm saying the models are wrong in their longer outlook, i know they don't factor them in. The pattern I believe will become more amplified due to the solar and lunar effects on the jetstream.......and as if by magic the 06z rolls out.

 

 

BFTP

That's because they're, if not nonexistent, far too insignificant to be worth the bother...If they were of any use, then surely climate modellers would have latched onto then year ago???

 

Or is that a daft question?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This is the point where 06 z changes its plan from previous, note the area south of the southern tip of Greenland.  That's where the trough over Newfoundland is getting held up as the ridge from greenland is holding its advance up.  More support of this is what we need for more cold to be able to awash us from the North.

 

BFTP

[legritter]

Todays Models and charts showing alternating milder spells with colder interludes right the way out till 15th of december and thats where i would draw the line to what i would expect .even in this ten day period exact synoptic situations Will change .My eye is drawn to the possibility of an active deep trough possibly over us or to our east come 12 days time .Gfs is already taking low pressure more and more to our east in later output ,and there is a big difference from run to run more so than we have seen to late .Its only early days gang ,christmas is still 20 days away new year nearly a month away ,Thats one hell of a time in Meteorology ,The winter i,m sure is still Maturing and i,m convinced at some point we will see the models reflect this .Brilliant Forum and remember ,how many times we go to bed with a completely different outlook the following morning .I will just mention Stratospheric influences ,yes a brilliant tool for us interested in the models as im sure what goes on high up there, does indeed have a big impact on the main drivers of our weather in the Troposphere but its a relatively new science and to my knowledge for the size of the stratosphere im sure more Data collecting is needed .And a message to all ,all to play for gang Chill out take A STella and enjoy our top of the rating Net weather forum  :yahoo:ps Gfs as left the post ,lets see how things change now some action weather is modeled in .

Edited December 5, 2014 by legritter

[phil nw.]

A couple of recent posts have been moved to here

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-2014/

 

where they were more suited.

[Banbury]

Some postulations about the coming couple of weeks based on the monthly models

JMA and the Beijing climate models show the potential of a even chillier week 2 compared to this week as heights become more amplified upstream. The flow would suggest a continuation of a north westerly, but perhaps enough to bring snow to low levels at times in the north. Low heights at present continue to look to be draining from Greenland towards the UK and into Europe.

JMA suggest a milder end to the month, but the Chinese model again suggests northern blocking to become established around the turn of January as the Atlantic ridge amplifies enough to connect with the Siberian high advancing westwards. This has been a consistent signal for the past few weeks.

So the next 7 days look chilly with temperatures a little below normal, week 2 looks a little colder with snow to low levels possible at times. Beyond some tentative signals of what could possibly happen and have been predicted by many on here to occur.

Just looked at Gavs vid on TWO, the Chinese model has been very good recently and has been suggesting this for a while.....fingers crossed

Edited December 5, 2014 by Banbury

[knocker]

This is the point where 06 z changes its plan from previous, note the area south of the southern tip of Greenland.  That's where the trough over Newfoundland is getting held up as the ridge from greenland is holding its advance up.  More support of this is what we need for more cold to be able to awash us from the North.

 

BFTP

 

I think the jet running around thhe Azores high and plunging into the UK might well have something to do with it. And this evolves into......

 

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited December 5, 2014 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

The latest snow accumulation map shows some snow as far south as south wales over the next 3 to 6 days

 

 

Whilst snow amounts away from 200 m + won't amount to much some snow could well fall at lowers levels for a time

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Yes but on the other hand, we need to keep things grounded in reality rather than fantasy and the Experts don't see any sign of a cold spell out to mid / late january no matter how we interprit things transpiring in the weeks ahead.

Frosty I have to say I find this very confusing , it was only yesterday you were posting lots of cold charts saying snow was on the way for some . I no the weather can be fustrating in the winter for us snow lovers but in reality things are looking a lot better this year than last , completely different actually , don't be blinded by low hights over Greenland and think that's it for another month , things are changing , and I get the feeling sooner rather than later , the bench mark has always been set to be around Xmas time and this hasn't changed , in the mean time we have some cold zonality , interesting squally showers at times with a bit of the White stuff chucked in at times for good measure .

We all expected to have a zonal spell of weather .

And re the met o forecast . . . I'm not sure whether you'v read the met o winter expectations ? It was posted a few days ago on here , the main reason why they've gone for a +nao this year is because they have faith in there own model , although they freely agree that all the signals are pointing to the opposite , they also speak about an expected SSW a little later in the season , so really not a mild outlook at all Carl .

Keep your chin up buddy 😄

[mushymanrob]

This pattern is a lot better than last year. Although I agree it looks unlikely that most of us will see any snow for a while yet

 

is it?.... whatever way you look at it, its a zonal outlook within and beyond the reliable timeframe. the chances of a pv situated all winter where last winters was was always never really going to happen, as i cannot recall (although i might be wrong) 2 consecutive winters having almost the same synoptic pattern. zonal is zonal no matter whats driving it or how its being driven.

im pretty sure ths pattern wont last all winter, but for now any pattern change is purely speculative. and whos to say that when the pattern change does occur it wont deliver a mild bartlett?

[Paul]

Latest from Michael Fish - wintry, wet and windy..

 

https://vimeo.com/113705339

[Polar Maritime]

Yet more posts have been deleted, Just to echo Phil..  Only discuss 'Model Output' in here.

 

If your post gets moved or deleted it's because it's off topic.

 

PM.

[Frosty.]

Frosty I have to say I find this very confusing , it was only yesterday you were posting lots of cold charts saying snow was on the way for some . I no the weather can be fustrating in the winter for us snow lovers but in reality things are looking a lot better this year than last , completely different actually , don't be blinded by low hights over Greenland and think that's it for another month , things are changing , and I get the f

eeling sooner rather than later , the bench mark has always been set to be around Xmas time and this hasn't changed , in the mean time we have some cold zonality , interesting squally showers at times with a bit of the White stuff chucked in at times fomeasure .

We all expected to have a zonal spell of weather .

And re the met o forecast . . . I'm not sure whether you'v read the met o winter expectations ? It was posted a few days ago on here , the main reason why they've gone for a +nao this year is because they have faith in there own model , although they freely agree that all the signals are pointing to the opposite , they also speak about an expected SSW a little later in the season , so really not a mild outlook at all Carl .

Keep your chin up buddy

Thanks mate

Hope the mods allow this since I tried to send pm but it wouldn't work. I'm in a bit of confused mind state today and unwell but I agree with you SSIB.

Wintry showers and night frosts interspersed with less cold, wet and windy spells and we could be in for disruptive stormy weather next week according to latest models.

[shaky]

More amplified 12z till 114 hours! ! Surprise no one has commented!!!

[johnholmes]

I have to say the chances of snow are slim to zero away from the Scottish mountains and it looks very like the cool zonal pattern we had last winter sadly due to occasional milder days.

It does of course depend on what definition one gives to a 'mountain', and indeed whether one wants to spin the charts to mild or cold. Reading through the last couple of pages I read both in there. Some objectivity would not come amiss from a few folk. Yes it is fun to speculate but PLEASE if you do then show the charts and explain how they 'might' give the type of weather you suggest. Not difficult really, simply post a link to the chart you refer to if you do not want the hassle of copying and saving to your pc and then adding in to your post.

It is also not a bad idea to state what time frame you are referring to, some are no further than 144h some are in the add a nought category but these time frames are rarely mentioned. This is quite important when referring to a specific low/high on a chart, not all of us are mind readers nor on your wavelength, so it does help if you say which chart and which low/high and where on that chart.

Edited December 5, 2014 by johnholmes

[mushymanrob]

Try this one Mushy

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1947/archivesnh-1947-1-18-0-0.png

 

 

nope... i still cant see the simularity between those charts and the current synoptic pattern.  ive viewed the sequence and theres still high pressure around beforehand and i dont think from my limited knowlege that the upper air pattern that we have/are getting now would produce that 1947 sequence or anything close.

i take on board that nothing can be ruled out, but id have thought that a sudden rapid (and unexpected/predicted) pressure rise over scandinavia whilst the upper air pattern is as it is, is highly unlikely?

[-uksnow-]

Once again small steps from the 12z GFS building a stronger ridge ahead of the low exiting the eastern seaboard around 120 hours, moving to a more amplified solution. 

 

6z

 

 

 

 

 

12z

 

 

 

A better link up of the American HP to the amplified azores HP. 

 

Edit: Pictures won't post! 

Edited December 5, 2014 by -uksnow-

[Catacol]

I think the jet running around thhe Azores high and plunging into the UK might well have something to do with it. And this evolves into......

 

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

Hmmm :-) - be careful what you wish for Knocker. That chart you post - from FI of course - rather proves Blast's point. Pressure rising in the vicinity of Greenland as the vortex relocates to Siberia as at the end of the run the NH profile shows ridging from Greenland to Siberia and a system that is pulling North and soon northeasterly air in with it. It ends up here:

 

 

It's all far too far our to be taken seriously yet, but I think those who keep referring back to last year or are wed to the idea of a jet barreling through the UK as per last winter arent looking at the teleconnections properly. I'm not sold personally on the solar arguments that Blast/Roger put forward (largely really because I dont understand them... and lack of understanding always equals suspicion!) but those apart its pretty clear to me that the signs are of a significant shift in the latter half of December or into January (just as forecast by Chio a week ago.) We know that the models are not good at handling the impact of a SSW, and at the same time we know that conditions for such an event are in place. I know from looking out my window the last week that the westerly dominance is nothing like last year, and we are in a period of anti cyclonic dominance as I think I mentioned a while back.

 

The storm system coming through next week, combined with resurgence of the siberian high and strong indications of upstream amplification, will throw us towards a pattern shift of some kind, even before stratospheric warming is possible later in the month. The T192 from the very model you put out as evidence of a dominant jet aimed at the uk actually shows the storm stalling against rising continental pressure with more pressure rising in behind.

 

 

 

I would be very wary of predicting a pattern following from this chart. All bets for me would be well and truly off.

 

But - its a long way out. Let's see how the approaching "storm" pans out. Might be a very interesting indicator of where the dominant winter force lies for 14/15: atlantic train or continental block. 

Edited December 5, 2014 by Catacol_Highlander

[Barry12]

The Azores high looks like it might eventually be getting out of our way with it starting to move SE instead of E.

 

 

The low heights are also now starting to move away from Greenland...

 

Day 6 is miles better than the 6z with far more amplification

 

 

Heights from the Atlantic also seem attracted to Greenland, things are starting to get interesting in my opinion.

Edited December 5, 2014 by Barry95

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Thanks mate

Hope the mods allow this since I tried to send pm but it wouldn't work. I'm in a bit of confused mind state today and unwell but I agree with you SSIB.

Wintry showers and night frosts interspersed with less cold, wet and windy spells and we could be in for disruptive stormy weather next week according to latest models.

Iv had trouble PM' people since I started , I just can't seem to find out how to do it ! It must be eyes but I can never see the option in my profile ? Someone point me in the right direction please ?

I thought u were not feeling well Carl , but remeber tomorrow is another day , and the only thing in our power to change is the future . . . Keep smiling !! Winter is coming on a steam train all the way from Siberia !!!

[Mucka]

GFS slowly, slowly coming to grips with the upstream pattern and a more amplified pattern so it should slowly move away from flattening out and at least keep any zonal flow on the cold side.

It is a gradually improving picture across the output and ECM 10 day mean anomalies are gradually forcing the lower heights further South and displacing the AH with a more Northerly component to our weather. 

Next development we want to see is that low off the US coast disrupt SE and build heights behind toward Greenland.

 

[Snowy L]

850 temperatures in the Baffin bay area looking so much better on this run. Looks like a good northerly set up as well, this is only in 6 days time yet the difference between the 06z is pretty big.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.gif