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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

Modification to raw 12z UKMO-GM broadly involves backing the flow Fri-Sat closer to other model middle ground (= thus less pronounced and less showery cold spell) but whilst stressing ongoing uncertainty, this stemming from model handling of jetstream near Aleutians and developments across Alaska / subsequent upper trough extension across central Canada.

ukmo is very different than gfs ecm at 96hrs do you prefer a blend of the two over the ukmo output IAn.
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Modification to raw 12z UKMO-GM broadly involves backing the flow Fri-Sat closer to other model middle ground (= thus less pronounced and less showery cold spell) but whilst stressing ongoing uncertainty, this stemming from model handling of jetstream near Aleutians and developments across Alaska / subsequent upper trough extension across central Canada.

just as you inform us off the modifications the gfs has a slightly more of a northerly component on friday and saturday!!!
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Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire

GFS has -4/-5 uppers for many of us on Friday. -6's for the North of Scotland.

 

90-7UK.GIF?01-1896-7UK.GIF?01-18102-7UK.GIF?01-18

 

Could be interesting on Friday evening :)

 

then the cold is back on sunday:

 

144-7UK.GIF?01-18

Edited by Barry95
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Quite a potent NorthWesterly the GFS is toying with around day 7 (More so than the upcoming one) but not yet supported by the Euros.

 

gfsnh-0-138.pnggfsnh-1-144.png?18

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

Actually knocks, the euro anomoly is more notable than I thought though still nothing special (it is a post day 10 timeframe though). The story of the day on the ecm extended is the development of the upper ridge over nw Siberia. this has grown from what was shown on the 00z run and looks like it could become a big player now that the upper trough is departing that locale. whether it can prove strong enough to push as far west as nw Europe, given the Atlantic ridge is the question. Remembering how poorly the models did with it's strength last time, I would wonder if we might see the whole pattern retrogress from what we currently see progged for two weeks time on the ens anomolys. Maybe the zonal train that looked likely early today may hit the buffers again ??

 

Just reading a blog on WSI where they are looking at the 00Z clusters for ECM and GFS. Looking at the 12Z ECM and the further encroach of the low hights into Europe: would the the colder cluster have higher support on this run, I wonder?

 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/europe-cold-this-week-less-coldwindierwetter-next-week/

 

The 27% T2 temp anomalies.

 

cluster_31.png   cluster_21.png

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

The new 96 hr fax chart could provide some interest for Western areas as that 2nd cold front spreads down in the evening.

 

 

 

Also today is the last day of those positive 850 temps for the UK,with the rest of the ECM ensemble run showing negative anomalies right out to 240 hrs.

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=100&map=0&type=1&archive=0

Edited by Cloud 10
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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

GFS has -4/-5 uppers for many of us on Friday. -6's for the North of Scotland.

 

90-7UK.GIF?01-1896-7UK.GIF?01-18102-7UK.GIF?01-18

 

Could be interesting on Friday evening :)

Big difference on 18z looks more like ukmo I think Fi is 96hrs at present, the position of the azores high is not a done deal yet.I feel there is plenty of scope to upgrade charts in the comming days so plenty of interesting model watching to come for us coldies.
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

That is true. If you look at the extended version at T264 the low has filled and been absorbed, with HP still in position in the Atlantic and a westerly flow with slightly below average temps.

Are you in a position to inform me what the 12z ECM control shows post day 10 ?

Many thanks in advance.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GS 18z and accompanying parallel showing potential for some disturbing rapid cyclogenesis in about a weeks time

 

gfsnh-0-168.png?18

 

Hopefully that will be not repeated and firmed up upon in future output

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

GS 18z and accompanying parallel showing potential for some disturbing rapid cyclogenesis in about a weeks time

 

gfsnh-0-168.png?18

 

Hopefully that will be not repeated and firmed up upon in future output

I'm pretty sure that chart won't verify. Oh no, hope that's not another MF moment :crazy:

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

The problem with cold shots from the West/North West is that they go over further stretches of fairly mild oceans so the cold is probably more modified than say if a similar set up occured but from the East. The SST's in Western areas still look quite above average but at least we are seeing some clearer chilly(proper chilly weather) weather though and there is the risk of something that convective lovers will like but any low lying snow looks quite minimal at best but if one of those cold shots is strong enough then you just never know.

 

The broader picture does look rather poor for the time being with low heights across Greenland and an active Atlantic however its nothing unusual and it is what in general winter is about. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

GFS has -4/-5 uppers for many of us on Friday. -6's for the North of Scotland.

 

90-7UK.GIF?01-1896-7UK.GIF?01-18102-7UK.GIF?01-18

 

Could be interesting on Friday evening :)

 

then the cold is back on sunday:

 

144-7UK.GIF?01-18

Bear in mind 0C isotherm heights- anything wintry will probably be restricted to higher ground.

post-15177-0-65879000-1417473704_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

The NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 has a  weak trough north of the UK with slack low pressure over Greenland and the Pole. HP south of the low pressure across the Atlantic producing a surface analysis not dissimilar to the current set up with HP dominating the Atlantic west of the UK and most of the latter but the low perhaps impinging on Scotland. Temps average or below.

 

The ECM and GEFS both push a weak trough SE into Europe just to the east of the UK; the ECM with more emphasis and a more intense Canadian low. At the end of the day this still leaves the surface analysis with HP in the eastern Atlantic with a very weak area of low pressure Scandinavia into Europe.

 

Upshot of this no apparent indication of major changes in the next fifteen days.

 

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

On the face of it a very ordinary Atlantic type of pattern if looking for proper Wintry weather however it promises to be fairly chilly even rather cold at times for many of us with some night frosts around later in the week.

Plenty of cold just to our north which is released periodically around the Atlantic high se towards the UK and into Europe.

Even into week 2 we can see from the means that little changes in the rather cold setup with still that cool Atlantic flow 

post-2026-0-95430300-1417472922_thumb.pnpost-2026-0-69491100-1417472929_thumb.pn

 

the main thing under a slack flow this week we retain the chilly surface feel as we can see by the Warks. 2m temperature graph

 

post-2026-0-26999900-1417473004_thumb.pn

 

another incursion of polar maritime air seems likely at the weekend to extend the seasonal feel into week 2.

 

It could be a lot milder considering the main segment of the vortex is across the Greenland area with a pretty flat upstream flow.We are saved from this because of the High staying far enough west into the Atlantic with some weak troughing heading into E.Europe.

I look upon it as a sort of holding pattern until we see some further amplification of the jet which could release some real Arctic cold lurking just to our north. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The 18z para doing a better job with the Siberian heights than the normal in week 2. still a fair way from where the ECM got to by T240.

Fwiw, the NH profile could look a lot worse for the time of year!

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Are you in a position to inform me what the 12z ECM control shows post day 10 ?

Many thanks in advance.

 

Not sure exactly what you want to know But a look at the T300 anomaly.

 

HP eastern Europe  west through the UK, Atlantic and NE Canada. HP North America with a little intense trough eastern seaboard. Low east of Greenland and over the Pole and NW Siberia and eastern Pacific.

 

Surface analysis LP to the north with Hp western Atlantic through into eastern Europe so not that dissimilar to what we have at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Well, fasten your seat belts everybody, it's going to get much colder during the middle third of Dec.

The ECM and GFS agree on this and I have noticed an almost firm transition day of the 10th Dec that

has kept cropping up over the last few days on and off. Today though has almost cemented this date as the

day to watch the transition unfold. This will herald a much colder middle third of Dec defined by trough digging

south east into Europe followed by north easterly drift backing into easterly. Not frigid by any means but so much

better than last winter. Whether this cold can hang on for  Xmas week is another question but fingers crossed.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

The 18z para doing a better job with the Siberian heights than the normal in week 2. still a fair way from where the ECM got to by T240.

Fwiw, the NH profile could look a lot worse for the time of year!

 

Actually looks quite exciting when looking at the anomalies. :)

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Well, fasten your seat belts everybody, it's going to get much colder during the middle third of Dec.

The ECM and GFS agree on this and I have noticed an almost firm transition day of the 10th Dec that

has kept cropping up over the last few days on and off. Today though has almost cemented this date as the

day to watch the transition unfold. This will herald a much colder middle third of Dec defined by trough digging

south east into Europe followed by north easterly drift backing into easterly. Not frigid by any means but so much

better than last winter. Whether this cold can hang on for  Xmas week is another question but fingers crossed.

 

Well i have to say I don't see any firm transition day.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Not sure exactly what you want to know But a look at the T300 anomaly.

 

HP eastern Europe  west through the UK, Atlantic and NE Canada. HP North America with a little intense trough eastern seaboard. Low east of Greenland and over the Pole and NW Siberia and eastern Pacific.

 

Surface analysis LP to the north with Hp western Atlantic through into eastern Europe so not that dissimilar to what we have at the moment.

Thanks Knocker but it was the control run (blue) I was interested in, not anomaly's.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

As Mucka said we could without this. The ops isn't anywhere near as bad. It has run this before and then dropped it.

Chart courtesy weatherbell

post-12275-0-36511100-1417474705_thumb.p

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

GS 18z and accompanying parallel showing potential for some disturbing rapid cyclogenesis in about a weeks time

 

gfsnh-0-168.png?18

 

Hopefully that will be not repeated and firmed up upon in future output

Scotland would be on its last legs if that chart comes to fruition, what is being firmed up is rather short cold snap, introducing relatively chilly upper air profile. Wintriness for the hills even down south. Possibly low-laying for some, if evaporative cooling comes into play. I'd say and that is not in dreamland. Which seems to always come to the attention of many on here, of course we are always searching for that freeze, but sometimes its good to take a step backwards.

And see what's in front of us. :)

post-19153-0-90131300-1417474549_thumb.jpost-19153-0-74660800-1417474737_thumb.j

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