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A tropical depression has formed from a low lattitude disturbance out in the east of the basin, 255 nautical miles south-southeast of Chuuk. Winds area at 25kts. 22W has a strong mid level centre, but a weaker circulation at the surface. With the plentiful deep convection associated with the system, it won't be long before the surface circulation strengthens. A strong ridge to the north will keep 22W on a west-northwestward track for the next 3-4 days. Thereafter, model disparity increases significantly, with some models forecasting a recurve northeastwards and others maintaining a continued westerly track towards the Philippines. One thing appears very likely however; 22W is likely to become a strong typhoon as the environment ahead is highly favourable.

EDIT: JMA have upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Hagupit, with winds of 35kts.

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Edited by Somerset Squall
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Hagupit has strengthened to 55kts according to JTWC. The storm has now got a well developed central dense overcast, flanked by strong banding. A small eye appears to be emerging too, and it seems Hagupit could well be undergoing rapid intensification. JTWC now forecast a peak of 130kts, cat 4 super typhoon strength. The track forecast is still uncertain in the extended range, but Hagupit could well be approaching the Philippines by day 5. By this point, some weakening should be underway due to increased shear, though Hagupit could still be a dangerous system.

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Hagupit has become a typhoon with winds of 70kts. There is still significant disagreement within the models of the long term track of Hagupit, with some models recurving Hagupit northeast of the Philippines, and others going for a track through the Philippines. It really is not clear just what Hagupit will do.

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Hagupit is now a category 3, with winds of 100kts. The eye has still not cleared out but that central dense overcast looks very circular so it should only be a matter of time before the eye clears out if the shear remains low as expected.

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Oh dear, this is not looking good for the Philippines. Hagupit has rapidly intensified, and has become a 130kt, cat 4 super typhoon, the sixth of the season (including Genevieve). The eye has cleared and become more distinct. Worryingly, JTWC forecast a peak of 160kts, a strong category 5. Although some weakening is expected near the Philippines, Hagupit will not weaken enough to prevent a significant impact.

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post-1820-0-85021000-1417639760_thumb.gi

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Oh dear, this is not looking good for the Philippines.

 

This indeed has the possibility to become a real catastrophe for the Phillipines, really wrong place wrong time... This is the last thing they could use, with such a monster approaching. Worrying to say the least.

 

Back to the actual situation, Haiyan appears to be undergoing explosive deepening at the moment. In fact, it is looking like a full-fledged category 5 tropical cylcone. As an illustration, look at the Dvorak satellite image of Hagupit below:

post-20885-0-87883500-1417643315_thumb.g

Dvorak satellite image of Hagupit as of 21:01 UTC 03-11-2014 (note that the image does not update itself)

 

The most remarkable thing about Hagupit is the very strong eyewall convection that encompasses the system. The depth (intensity) of the convection is almost out of the scale. Also, some banding features exist on the western part of Hagupit, while the eastern part is devoid of any banding activity. Finally, note the nearly circular shape of the inner convection of Hagupit.

 

Dvorak satellite images are not being able to keep up with the pace that Hagupit is currently strengthening, as noted by the JTWC in their prognostic discussion:

 

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 130 KNOTS DESPITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES LIMITED BY CONSTRAINTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.

 

Current satellite intensity estimates from CIMSS ADT are no higher than 103 kt, which is most likely far too low for the system in its current state.

 

Whether Hagupit will hit the Philippines is still not entirely written in stone. The latest run from the GFS model (the 12Z run 03-11-2014) recurves the cyclone before it reaches the Philippines as can be seen below:

 

14.track.current.png

GFS forecast track of Hagupit (12Z 03-11-2014).

 

However, as noted by Somerset Squall, the official JTWC forecast does bring Hagupit very close to the Philippines, so a lot of uncertainty remains. The JTWC currently states the uncertainty as follows:

 

G THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK INTO SOUTHERN LUZON. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT BIFURCATION IN THE MODELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ALTERNATE FORECAST SCENARIO, WITH THE SYSTEM EITHER SIGNIFICANTLY RECURVING EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES OR TRACKING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES

 

One final complicating factor is the slow motion that may arise in about 5 days. If this would be correct, the Philippines could brace themselves for a huge rain event. But once again, confidence is very low.

 

Wunderblogger Jeff Masters also wrote a blog about the system, when it was still a category 3 tropical cyclone.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2871

 

Let us hope that the Philippines get spared on this one, they really cannot use another monster after Haiyan.

 

Sources:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/22W/22W_floater.html

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2214prog.txt

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2871

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/14120312/14.html

Edited by Vorticity0123
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JTWC currently estimating the sustained windspeeds to be 155kts (180mph), with further strengthening to 170kts (195mph) likely, which would match the intensity of Haiyan.

Terrible news for the people of the Philippines, hopefully it will recurve back out to sea.

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Some snippets and images from the tropical boards.

 

The ECM was out on its own last night - unfortunately, the recurve of the others in suite looks less likely.

 

7HlMiMw.gif

 

The horror just goes on for the poor people in the area - the track of Hagiput looks to be very close to the last two monsters.

 

Hagupit_zps24c6fdfc.jpg

 

 

Latest image.   6ymt5v.png

 

 

A chilling quote from a Texas pro-met.

 

 

Last year, I was horrified when Haiyan maintained its intensity during its eyewall replacement.

This year, I have no words for how Hagupit intensified during its eyewall replacement

 

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2429107#p2429107

 

....and how tropical phases may have helped to create another super typhoon.

 

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2429074#p2429074

 

 

 

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Yep, we have another cat 5, the fifth of the season, which is pretty impressive given that, in term of numbers of storms, the season has been below average. Let's hope Hagupit does recurve and spare the Philippines.

Latest thinking from Jeff Masters is that landfall could be Tacloban (again). People are still living in tents from the previous Cat 5. Tragic.

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From your IR representation, slight weakening while eyewall replacement cycle underway - still a lot of warm water for strengthning before land fall. Once again, Tacloban is the target zone with so many still in temporary accommodation.

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It's just sickening. It just makes me appreciate how lucky we are in these islands.

 

As much as I feel in awe of the spectacle of something so omnipotent, I'd happily divert it / hugely downgrade it before it hit land, if it was in my power.

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A combination of an eyewall replacement cycle and an increase in shear has weakened Hagupit. Hagupit has lost cat 5 status and is now a 125kt cat 4. The eye has become cloud filled and the central dense overcast asymmetric due to the shear. Further weakening is expected prior to landfall. Despite Hagupit now being weaker than previously forecast at landfall, it will still be a fairly strong system, as cyclones that were as strong as Hagupit take their time to weaken from such high intensities.

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On its approach to the Philippines (and north of the area devastated by Haiyan) it now has sustained winds of 205kph (just shy of 130mph)

 

http://weather.com.ph/announcements/typhoon-hagupit-ruby-update-number-013

 

I guess this might be equivalent to a category 4 storm, as the 205kph is based on 10 minute average windspeeds, rather than the 1 minute that categorises Atlantic hurricanes.

 

This last bit makes me wonder how minimal typhoons are categorised. Do they have 10 minute speeds of slightly under force 12?

 

Still a dangerous beast, but thankfully not a Haiyan.

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Hagupit is currently in the process of making landfall. Unfortunately, the system has taken a southward, which increases the threat of the system to Tacoblan, which was hit hardest by Haiyan last year1. However, it seems that Tacoblan will remain just to the south of the most intense part of the system, as can be seen in the Rainbow satellite image below:
 

post-20885-0-17444100-1417888840_thumb.j

Rainbow satellite image of Hagupit 

 

The area where Hagupit is currently located is fortunately quite sparsely populated. Furthermore, if one looks at the image above, it can be seen that no definite eye feature is present, which means that Hagupit at time of landfall is much less intense than Haiyan last year. However, it has to be mentioned that Hagupit remains a formidable category 3 typhoon, with sustained winds up to 110 knots (1 minute mean).

 

The forecast track from JTWC for Hagupit indicates that Manilla may be receiving a direct hit from the system as well. The main threat will be heavy rainfall in that area, though the system is still expected to be a category 1 tropical cyclone by then.

 

Let us pray for the people living there that they will stay safe!

 

Sources:

1:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Haiyan

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/22W/22W_floater.html (image)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/ (intensity estimate)

Edited by Vorticity0123
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Hagupit continues to journey westwards through the central Philippines. Winds are down to 75kts. The typhoon is moving slowly unfortunately, exacerbating the rainfall. Hagupit is forecast to move out into the South China Sea as a tropical storm then veer southwestwards as a ridge builds over Vietnam. Increasing shear and eventually land interaction with southern Vietnam will continue to weaken the system even when it emerges back over water.

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Edited by Somerset Squall
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Hagupit continues to slowly track towards Vietnam. After emergence over the South China Sea, Hagupit has steadily weakened due to shear and dry air, and winds are currently at 35kts. Landfall should occur in the next 24hrs over southern Vietnam. Dissipation should occur shortly thereafter. JTWC mention the possibility that Hagupit could take a more southerly track and pass just south of the south coast of Vietnam, though this is considered less likely than the landfall scenario.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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JTWC mention the possibility that Hagupit could take a more southerly track and pass just south of the south coast of Vietnam, though this is considered less likely than the landfall scenario.

 

It looks like this option will not occur, as the JTWC is no longer indicating this possibility. However, still a few models are going for a track very near the coast. This can be seen in the track guidance given below:

 

0awp22_2014121106_track_late.png

06 UTC 11-12-2014 tropical cyclone model forecasts.

 

Note that the GFDN is still indicating a track just to the south of Vietnam.

 

Regardless of whether Hagupit will track over Vietnam or not, wind shear over Hagupit is currently about 20 kts, and will probably only increase over the forecast track of the tropical cyclone. Therefore, dissipation in the next few days seems to be unavoidable.

 

A shear analysis of the Western Pacific, with TC Hagupit indicated on it, can be found in the link below:

 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms∏=sht&zoom=&time=

 

Sources:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms∏=sht&zoom=&time=

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/22W/22W_floater.html

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northwestpacific/2014/wp222014/

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