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mike Meehan

Models and 'Two' long range 150 day Forecasts

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Out of interest I have been checking the 150 day forecasts from TWO and they can vary wildly from day to day, so I am wondering whether these are totally automated forecasts derived from the models.

 

Can anybody confirm this?

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Hi Mike

I belive they are updated after every GFS run, much the same

As Met Check, for example I had a look yesterday and it showed

The North of England as 9 snow days, today it shows 28 snow

Days

C.S

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Hi Mike

I belive they are updated after every GFS run, much the same

As Met Check, for example I had a look yesterday and it showed

The North of England as 9 snow days, today it shows 28 snow

Days

C.S

That would be 9 or 28 more than last year so either of those would be good in my books.

Edited by Hocus Pocus

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The reason I asked the question is that first of all it must be terribly time consuming to make a total of 150 days x 8 regions x 4 each day = 4800 forecasts each day, so it occurred that there may be a way of doing this automatically from the information in the models and secondly when you look through and examine the details, the wind direction etc, occasionally they don't make sense which may be understandable if fully automated but not if there is human involvement with a critical eye.

Edited by mike Meehan

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They will be fully automated - probably from the latest CFS run.

Edited by bluearmy

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Out of interest I have been checking the 150 day forecasts from TWO and they can vary wildly from day to day, so I am wondering whether these are totally automated forecasts derived from the models.

 

Can anybody confirm this?

 

I think they can only be from CFS. A look at the tabulated form of the last few runs, show how much it can vary from run to run.

 

Ze1rK75.png

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs.php

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I think they can only be from CFS. A look at the tabulated form of the last few runs, show how much it can vary from run to run.

 

Ze1rK75.png

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs.php

Looked at that, thought it was strange so went to the link and found they were anomalies :)

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They will be fully automated - probably from the latest CFS run.

They are , you are correct .

 

Tally seems to take them seriously I have to remind them they will change in 6 hours time :)

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They are , you are correct .

Tally seems to take them seriously I have to remind them they will change in 6 hours time :)

Tally! Bless him. He takes a lot of stuff seriously! Edited by bluearmy
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Aaaah .....fond memories and Groundhog Day. :rolleyes:

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