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Netweather Winter Forecast 2014/15 - A Cold Hearted Winter


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

That is about the most average long term forcast I have seen,just what you would expect for a noughties/teen year to be [with the exception of 3 odd winters ]!!!

Am sure there are lots on here hoping for more surprises than that..we shall see !!!!

It's a forecast not a set in stone prediction so there may well be more surprises.

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

It's a forecast not a set in stone prediction so there may well be more surprises.

Yes it is a forcast....for an average winter ....my 10 year old could have written that!!  The fact is it is so average that nothing is off the beaten path...We shall see !!!

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Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

Yes it is a forcast....for an average winter ....my 10 year old could have written that!!  The fact is it is so average that nothing is off the beaten path...We shall see !!!

I look forward to reading your 10 year olds forecast then.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Yes it is a forcast....for an average winter ....my 10 year old could have written that!!  The fact is it is so average that nothing is off the beaten path...We shall see !!!

And the problem with that is...?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

So unless a forecast is for an extreme then it is not worth writing?

 

No, we have to forecast what the pre winter conditions suggest and that is what we have done - I hope that your son has a few score hours (and then some) to spare!

 

And I would like to take this opportunity to say thanks for all the kind comments in this thread. It was hard work gathering all the evidence and working through it - Tony has an excel spread sheet that any banker would be proud of - but it was also a labour of love. 

 

The chionomaniac in me is hoping for that severe spell of cold weather - hillbilly - the temperatures overall suggest average because we expect any colder spells to be equalled out by the milder spells. Perhaps we didn't make that clear enough.

I don't think they really get it, chio...

 

This I know because when I make my annual criticisms of some of the more fanciful efforts - those based on lunar 'magnetism', the wanderings of Metabeelis 3 and the likes - some of them get really quite shirty...

 

There's science and there's bullocks? NW's LRF is science; whether or not it turns out to be accurate...

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Yes it is a forcast....for an average winter ....my 10 year old could have written that!!  The fact is it is so average that nothing is off the beaten path...We shall see !!!

 

I think that very insulting to those who produced a very professional forecast. 

Edited by Paul
Removed provocative comments.
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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

Wish to echo Ed's message, massive thanks for all the well wishes and positive reception / feedback, really appreciated and made the effort feel very worthwhile.

 

After many hours of data sorting, chart reviewing, composite making, adjusting things, questioning things, removing years, changing weightings, rebuilding analogs, editing data to account for new activity, building a Top set of analogs, extending this to ensure it felt right. I am quite happy that we managed to deliver a deliberately average and boring outlook that a kid could write, next year will aim for armaggedon, ignore what background state is happening and just plot up charts for the maunder minimum.

 

:)

 

You know what - in the not too distant future, I'm quite sure old Sol will be aiding and abetting you in that endeavour. :)

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

That very thought did come to me at one point when crunching through solar flux data Nouska..

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m

Fantastic effort guys. Its refreshing to see a forecast delve some much into the latest scientific literature. A question about sea ice. Is the forecast based upon general sea ice condition's (so along the lines of Francis and Overland) or regional?  I note you mention jet stream changes (with influence on Rosby wave progression) which ties in well with Jennifer Francis's work. There's some recent papers that suggest sea ice change on the Eurasian side (Kara/Laptev seas) exerts an influence on the AO. Good luck and hope the forecast turns out well :)

Edited by Mark Bayley
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Fantastic effort guys. Its refreshing to see a forecast delve some much into the latest scientific literature. A question about see ice. Is the forecast based upon general sea ice condition's (so along the lines of Francis and Overland) or regional?  I note you mention jet stream changes (with influence on Rosby wave progression) which ties in well with Jennifer Francis's work. There's some recent papers that suggest sea ice change on the Eurasian side (Kara/Laptev seas) exerts an influence on the AO. Good luck and hope the forecast turns out well :)

Thanks and interestingly, Mark, it is all interlinked with the Taymyr anomalies in that region. Not weighted for that as such - but the expected pattern is.

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Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m

I don't think they really get it, chio...

 

This I know because when I make my annual criticisms of some of the more fanciful efforts - those based on lunar 'magnetism', the wanderings of Metabeelis 3 and the likes - some of them get really quite shirty...

 

There's science and there's bullocks? NW's LRF is science; whether or not it turns out to be accurate...

Well am sorry if I have upset anyone but I for one do not see the point in making any long  term forcasts at all.I mean who exactly is going to take any notice of any forcast over that distance of time.Sure we can have some very intelligent people pour over sophisticated figures from a computer and I congratulate their dedication but no forcast is worth anything at all unless it has a reasonable chance of being something that is forcast.Do you think any local authority,government,utility company ,farmer or builders are going to read this and digest what it has to say...NO ,that is fact! That is why the met office no longer bothers either.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well am sorry if I have upset anyone but I for one do not see the point in making any long  term forcasts at all.I mean who exactly is going to take any notice of any forcast over that distance of time.Sure we can have some very intelligent people pour over sophisticated figures from a computer and I congratulate their dedication but no forcast is worth anything at all unless it has a reasonable chance of being something that is forcast.Do you think any local authority,government,utility company ,farmer or builders are going to read this and digest what it has to say...NO ,that is fact! That is why the met office no longer bothers either.

Because we learn from getting things wrong just as much, if not more, than from when we get them right. That's the way that science works. So long as we can admit to our fallibility, that is.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m

Thanks and interestingly, Mark, it is all interlinked with the Taymyr anomalies in that region. Not weighted for that as such - but the expected pattern is.

 

I suspected so given its locality, not had time to read them yet. Thanks for the reply :). Theres some many feedbacks and processes you could spend months on them! 

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Great effort, Ed and Tony, and good luck.

Edited by Paul
Removed un-needed comments
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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Can the bickering stop now please - some people need to get a grip on how to express an opinion without resorting to ranting, name calling and the like.

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Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

Agree with all the positives, whatever your views on LRF's there can be no question at all of the scientific knowledge, dedication and time invested in this well reasoned exercise. High accuracy would in some sense be a bonus come the March review,as surely the actual outcome will aid hugely any future LRF when the research invested in this effort is judged against the outcome. A massive thanks to all involved.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

How disrespectful to a couple of guys who have been at the forefront on NW of bringing its members relatively new scientific insight on the weather and the factors that affect it.

Hats off to Lorenzo and Chiono - superb stuff, as always.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Fantastic effort guys. Its refreshing to see a forecast delve some much into the latest scientific literature. A question about sea ice. Is the forecast based upon general sea ice condition's (so along the lines of Francis and Overland) or regional?  I note you mention jet stream changes (with influence on Rosby wave progression) which ties in well with Jennifer Francis's work. There's some recent papers that suggest sea ice change on the Eurasian side (Kara/Laptev seas) exerts an influence on the AO. Good luck and hope the forecast turns out well :)

 

This one?

 

Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades

 

 

Over the past decade, severe winters occurred frequently in mid-latitude Eurasia1, 2, despite increasing global- and annual-mean surface air temperatures3. Observations suggest that these cold Eurasian winters could have been instigated by Arctic sea-ice decline2, 4, through excitation of circulation anomalies similar to the Arctic Oscillation5. In climate simulations, however, a robust atmospheric response to sea-ice decline has not been found, perhaps owing to energetic internal fluctuations in the atmospheric circulation6. Here we use a 100-member ensemble of simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model driven by observation-based sea-ice concentration anomalies to show that as a result of sea-ice reduction in the Barents–Kara Sea, the probability of severe winters has more than doubled in central Eurasia. In our simulations, the atmospheric response to sea-ice decline is approximately independent of the Arctic Oscillation. Both reanalysis data and our simulations suggest that sea-ice decline leads to more frequent Eurasian blocking situations, which in turn favour cold-air advection to Eurasia and hence severe winters. Based on a further analysis of simulations from 22 climate models we conclude that the sea-ice-driven cold winters are unlikely to dominate in a warming future climate, although uncertainty remains, due in part to an insufficient ensemble size.

 

http://www.nature.co...s/ngeo2277.html

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

I'd like to add a rather belated congratulations on a well presented, explained and reasoned forecast. Top notch guys!
 
I also noticed, which I posted about in the Ireland thread, that the 500hPa GPH anomalies forecast for Europe this winter isn't massively different to that experienced last winter
 
Last Winter GPH Chart .................. .................... .... Forecast for this winter
EA7ItJe.png xChart1.gif.pagespeed.ic.1q1Sw6ZuRU.png
 
I think it shows both how close last year was to decent synoptics, despite how it turned out, and how little it could take for this winter to end up quite poor even if the pattern ye forecast turns out quite accurate.
 

hillbilly, on 29 Nov 2014 - 22:01, said:

Well am sorry if I have upset anyone but I for one do not see the point in making any long  term forcasts at all.I mean who exactly is going to take any notice of any forcast over that distance of time.Sure we can have some very intelligent people pour over sophisticated figures from a computer and I congratulate their dedication but no forcast is worth anything at all unless it has a reasonable chance of being something that is forcast.Do you think any local authority,government,utility company ,farmer or builders are going to read this and digest what it has to say...NO ,that is fact! That is why the met office no longer bothers either.

 
The Met Office contingency planners forecast is for just those people. They generally don't bother with public forecasts because a lot of people have to need to know the probability of averaged weather over several months, and often misinterpret their forecasts, such as thinking things like "65% chance of cold" equals guaranteed cold, despite that 35 times out of a hundred, it won't be cold and they'd still be correct!

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