December 2014 CET forecasts (start of 2014/15 contest year)

[SomeLikeItHot]

Always puzzles me why people make guesses this early?

 

Given how bad my last minute submissions based on analysis were, I decided that I might as well guess early.

 

3.2 for me.

[MR EXTREMES]

4.2c for me please 

[Jack Wales]

I suspect a cold end to the month so I'll go for 3.8C

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

3.1C for me.

[SE Blizzards]

2.9c

[North-Easterly Blast]

In contrast to all other months of the year, the last time we had a notably warm December was 1988.

 

Whereas all other months of the year have seen a notably warm CET (in the top 20 warmest ever since 1659), and most months of the year have been in the top 20 warmest of all time on two or more occasions in the last 25 years.

 

January has been in the top 20 warmest ever in 1989, 1990, 2005, 2007 and 2008.

February has been in the top 20 warmest ever in 1990, 1995, 1997, 1998 and 2002.

March has been in the top 20 warmest ever in 1990, 1991, 1994, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2012 and 2014.

 

Compared to the fact that the warmest December in recent times was in 2006, at 6.5*C, but this still wasn't one of the top 20 warmest.  To find a December that fell into the top 20 warmest ever you have to go back to 1988.

 

All this points out that December has never or rarely been a particularly mild month in the last 25 years, despite January, February and March in most of the past 25 years having being mild, and on at least five occasions in the past 25 years being notably mild.

 

We certainly have to go back to the mid 1980s for the last occasion that we had a decently mild December followed by a much colder January / February period.

Edited November 26, 2014 by North-Easterly Blast

[Summer Sun]

I shall take a punt on 5.2c please

[Bobafet]

I will take a guess at 3.9c please.

[Methuselah]

Foggy days permitting, I'll guess at 4.1C, please...

[BornFromTheVoid]

The GFS parallel has the first 4 days averaging around 6.7C, so a little above the 81-10 average to the 4th (5.9).

[keithlucky]

2.9 c please

[stewfox]

4.6 ... average for 1981-2010

 

Over due an average so 4.6c for me . 

Edited November 27, 2014 by stewfox

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

I have gone mild for the whole of 2014, so I will carry this on and say 4.5C.  Around average.

[virtualsphere]

4.4C for me please (and not just because the previous two entries have been 4.6 and 4.5... honest!)

[jonboy]

Above average start significant below average finish so 3.2 for me

[Norrance]

Continuing on the mild side. 4.8C.

[DR(S)NO]

3.3c.....â„ï¸â›„ï¸ On the way from the second week.....

[BARRY]

3.7c   just cant keep having these warm months

[Stef]

6.9 please.

[syed2878]

I cant c that decs going to be anything to sing about though i am hoping i am wrong and the strat warming takes effect soon and we get another dec to remember. For me i'm going for 5.5c.

[mulzy]

4.6C please

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

3.8c please

[Weather-history]

5.0C

[Nouska]

The very first time I entered a CET competition was December 2010 - inspired by the charts, I opted for 0.3c and raised many an eyebrow and guffaw.  I was too high!!

 

No such inspiration this time but it is my first venture in here.

 

3.9c please.

[DR Hosking]

it will certainly be 4.5c