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Roger J Smith

December 2014 CET forecasts (start of 2014/15 contest year)

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I think I'll hold fire in the hope that, this time next week, there's a clearer indication of how things'll pan out. The now, it all looks as clear as mud!

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I'll give my prediction end of next week - lots of uncertainty at present.

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I can't see anything other than above average month unfortunately

 

6.5c

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I can't really see it being a particularly cold month either, unless I suppose the possible forecasted Stratospheric Warming events, such as the Wave 2 activity, deliver. Though even then, it might not be until mid to late-ish December when the results of it show (if it definitely happens).

CET guess: 4.9*C

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Always puzzles me why people make guesses this early?

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Always puzzles me why people make guesses this early?

 

Might be worthy of analysis. See if there is any correlation between the date of the CET estimate and the accuracy...

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Always puzzles me why people make guesses this early?

 

I think the answer lies in your sentence - a guess can be made at any time. If you want to wait and analyse each model run and try to glean trends right up to zero hour, well and good; I doubt even that proves more accurate in the long term.

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I leave it to the last day after a quick look at the models :)

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I leave it to the last day after a quick look at the models :)

Is that likely to be anymore accurate though. :shok:

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Here's a graph of the December CET with the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

 

Lb8YxF5.jpg

 

The November CET looks like finishing somewhere between 8.0 and 8.8C this year. The average December CET, following Novembers between 8.0 and 8.8C, is 4.7C.

 

The linear trend over the entire record is +0.35C per century, following this trend gives a December CET of 4.7C this year.
The linear trend since 1850 is +0.54C per century, following this trend gives a December CET of 4.9C this year
The linear trend since 1950 is +0.45C per century, following this trend gives a December CET of 4.8C this year.
The linear trend over the last 50 years is -0.44C per century, following this trend gives a December CET of 4.7C this year.
The linear trend over the last 30 years is -4.7C per century, following this trend gives a December CET of 4.1C this year.
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Is that likely to be anymore accurate though. :shok:

Possibly not, but I am in the top 20 most years :)

However I am getting prone to forgetfulness and not posting until 1st of late :(

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Possibly not, but I am in the top 20 most years :)

However I am getting prone to forgetfulness and not posting until 1st of late :(

Better than I'll ever be, I'm hopeless with these.

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My forecast for December a few weeks back looks potentially bust already. Though the models are starting to sniff out how December may pan out.

Changing my CET prediction from 5.5C to 4.5C

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Mildest of the winter months, although nothing noteworthy. Best of any cold (i.e. notable) towards towards new year/ last 1/3 of the month. Edit: i'll lower 5.0c 4.6c please; mostly average 

Edited by Mark Bayley

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