December 2014 CET forecasts (start of 2014/15 contest year)

[jonboy]

We had very few hot records set this year this record will be based on high minimum not high max so for many this does not feel like a record hot year

[The PIT]

We will end on 5.3C so I'd be surprised if the CET zone matches that although colder nights may do the trick.

[March Blizzard]

We had very few hot records set this year this record will be based on high minimum not high max so for many this does not feel like a record hot year

Yeah. It's felt more like consistent warmth than any exceptional heat, with mild overnight minima almost certainly more of a factor than high maxima.

[Mair Snaw]

so if its going to be the warmest CET year since 1990 do we know what the following Jan and Feb 1991 weather was like??

[Timmytour]

There's been 15 years with annual CETs above 10C in the last 21 years near enough three every four years

The previous 15 years with such CETS took place over a period of over 90 years! one in every six years!

But from my cold loving perspective, the trends are these..... only one of the last three years has had a CET above 10C

Four of the last six winters have been under the 1700-current day average, and the two that weren't had CDEcember CETs of 6C or above.

So going by the trends I want to go by, a December coming in under 6C means a good chance of a winter with below average temps

so if its going to be the warmest CET year since 1990 do we know what the following Jan and Feb 1991 weather was like??

It's the warmest since 2006. And yes we do know what Jan and Feb 2007 were like! <yikes>

[Daniel*]

The Summer here in London was not exceptionally warm although it did heat up in July, last year was like a furnace although it was concentrated. August was a damp squid... it was the consistency day after day maxima & minima above the average, not exceptionally so but it does add up. Jan/Feb/March done us no favours to begin with IMO - it felt like the seasons were all meddled up by such a mild winter. 2014 has been thoroughly poor year, cloudy mild and wet roll on 2015.

[The PIT]

Interestingly we're just going to miss here 10.8C in 1999. We are looking at 10.6C for the year.

Edited December 30, 2014 by The PIT

[Don]

Almost certain to finish on 5.4C before corrections.

Imagine how different the reaction would be if we were at the end of the coldest year on record!?

 

Well, I would be much happier but it is what it is.  However, at least my CET guess of 5.2C is going to be very close!

[Interitus]

We had very few hot records set this year this record will be based on high minimum not high max so for many this does not feel like a record hot year

Yeah. It's felt more like consistent warmth than any exceptional heat, with mild overnight minima almost certainly more of a factor than high maxima.

 

It has been consistently warm but this assumption is not totally correct though - while this year will have the highest annual minima on record and the second highest annual maxima, it is the maximum anomaly which contributes more to the mean with 1.65°C vs 1.31°C as of 29/12/14.

Edited December 30, 2014 by Interitus

[Timmytour]

If December finishes up on 5.3C then the last six months of the year will be more or less the same as 1857......which was followed by an average January but a cold February

[BornFromTheVoid]

We had very few hot records set this year this record will be based on high minimum not high max so for many this does not feel like a record hot year

 

 

Yeah. It's felt more like consistent warmth than any exceptional heat, with mild overnight minima almost certainly more of a factor than high maxima.

 

Just to add to Interitus' post (all based of the 61-90 average)

 

 

 

 

[March Blizzard]

Thanks for that info interitus and BFTV, would never have guessed the maxima contributed more. I assumed the opposite mainly due to how much overnight cloud there has seemingly been this year.

[TonyH]

so if its going to be the warmest CET year since 1990 do we know what the following Jan and Feb 1991 weather was like??

More like since 1690  :smiliz34:

[Weather-history]

Looks like 5.9C remains elusive for another year.

[March Blizzard]

Looks like 5.9C remains elusive for another year.

That really is an odd quirk! Surely we will see it before long?

[Summer Sun]

5.5C to the 30th

 

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[J10]

A quick look at  the stats this month and it seems that the later entries did well with a correlation of circa -0.21 if the CET is 5.4c

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Looks like the warmest year on record for the CET is going to be very close likely to beat the record by 0.1c

 

It’s also worth noting it’s set to be the warmest year on record in the Met Office’s Central England Temperature (CET) series, which dates all the way back to 1659. The mean temperature estimate for the year is 11.0°C, which would just beat the record of 10.9 Â°C set in 2006.

 

Human influence on the climate is likely to have substantially increased the chance of breaking the UK and CET temperature records. Estimates from the Met Office suggest that it has become about ten times more likely for the UK record to be broken as a result of human influence on the climate.

 

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/

[reef]

Hadley confirmed as 5.2C, a 0.2C downward adjustment:

 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2014

 

Actually closer to average than expected after the cold final week.

 

The year is down as 10.93, the warmest on record.

Edited January 1, 2015 by reef

[March Blizzard]

Hadley confirmed as 5.2C, a 0.2C downward adjustment:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2014

Actually closer to average than expected after the cold final week.

The year is down as 10.93, the warmest on record.

That was quick! I guess a few of the Met Office guys and girls stayed sober over new year then!

Only 0.1C out. A good start for me after last year's nightmare.

Edited January 1, 2015 by March Blizzard

[Summer Sun]

Hadley confirmed as 5.2C, a 0.2C downward adjustment:

 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2014

 

Actually closer to average than expected after the cold final week.

 

The year is down as 10.93, the warmest on record.

 

I've actually got it spot on!!

 

 

I shall take a punt on 5.2c please

 

[Timmytour]

Hadley confirmed as 5.2C, a 0.2C downward adjustment:

 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2014

 

Actually closer to average than expected after the cold final week.

 

The year is down as 10.93, the warmest on record.

Does the year not got by the average monthly CET then?

If December is 5.2C i would have thought the annual CET was slightly cooler at just under 10.92C

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5.2C as well. A rare match.

[March Blizzard]

Sunny Sheffield at 5.2C as well. A rare match.

How much do they differ by, typically?

[Timmytour]

December is the only month for which the mean CET average in the 21st century is lower so far than it was in the 20th century.

The average increase in monthly mean CETs between the 21st  (so far) and the 20th centurys is nearly three quarters of a degree centigrade.

The average increase in monthly mean CETS comparing the last 15 years to the 19th century is over one degree centigrade