December 2014 CET forecasts (start of 2014/15 contest year)

[BornFromTheVoid]

4.7C to the 15th

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2014

 

Yesterday was 3.2C. The minimum today is -0.5C while maxima were close to 9C, so a drop back to 4.6C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 12z GFS parallel has the CET at:

4.7C to the 15th (5.8]

4.7C to the 16th (4.9)

4.9C to the 17th (8.6)

5.4C to the 18th (13.0) (Record: 11.4C)

5.5C to the 19th (6.7)

5.4C to the 20th (5.0)

5.5C to the 21st (6.6)

 

That forecast for the 18th is quite remarkable. The warmest daily average on record for any day in December is 12.9C, so it seems there's a chance of beating that and recording the first December day above 13C.

Edited December 14, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[Weather26]

There goes our below average month if the warmest December day on record comes off on Thursday.

[March Blizzard]

There goes our below average month if the warmest December day on record comes off on Thursday.

 

That figure for the 18th is looking highly improbable. Although I'm at the extreme northern end of the CET zone the forecast high is 12C, so where a daily mean of 13C comes from I don't know. It surely can't be that much warmer further south, can it?

 

A very mild day, no doubt, but I'll eat my hat if it's as warm as the 12z GFS parallel suggests.

[BornFromTheVoid]

That figure for the 18th is looking highly improbable. Although I'm at the extreme northern end of the CET zone the forecast high is 12C, so where a daily mean of 13C comes from I don't know. It surely can't be that much warmer further south, can it?

 

A very mild day, no doubt, but I'll eat my hat if it's as warm as the 12z GFS parallel suggests.

Still something close on the 18z, min around 12 and maxima in the mid to high 13s

[TonyH]

Little variation through about 48 hours Wed to Thurs day or night.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It is now looking probable to me that the CET record will be broken, but probably by less than one-tenth of a degree, which means that it might not be statistically distinguishable from 2006 when error estimates are taken into account.  (Incidentally, global temperatures are also looking set to break records by a few hundredths of a degree C).

 

The 18th is forecast to have a very mild and moist tropical maritime airmass which can produce very high overnight minima, so that record high December daily CET could indded be under threat, but chances are the GFS will tone it down a little as we get nearer the time.

 

I can't remember what my original prediction was but I think it was around 5.6, which is still looking plausible.

[Summer Sun]

4.7c to the 14th

 

-0.3c below the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

4.7c to the 15th

 

-0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

A slightly below December is still looking likely despite a few above average days popping up in the next week. The last week of December should bring the mean down to be just below.

[Lettucing Gutted]

A very mild day, no doubt, but I'll eat my hat if it's as warm as the 12z GFS parallel suggests.

At this rate it will only be a matter of time before 20C and over days appear in winter.  We only just missed 20C in February 1998.

[Summer Sun]

At this rate it will only be a matter of time before 20C and over days appear in winter.  We only just missed 20C in February 1998.

 

January 26th 2003 had a high of 18.3c in both Aboyne and Inchmarlo (both Scotland) thats the highest winter temperature in recent years just a few days later northerly winds brought snow to Scotland

[damianslaw]

At the half way point and a good bet would be a very near average CET to finish the month - quite possibly the second coldest month relative to the CET mean this year - but given 10 months have finished 0.5 degrees above average I think was always going to be a fairly easy target.

 

The next few days will see a jump upwards somewhat - given the longer term outlook next week, colder days should cancel these out.

 

Perhaps a wager on slightly above than below.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 2.1C while maxima should be around 7C, so remaining on 4.7C on tomorrows update.  

 

After that, the 12z GFS parallel has the CET at:

 

4.9C to the 17th (8.3)

5.4C to the 18th (12.7) [Record: 11.4C]

5.5C to the 19th (8.0)

5.6C to the 20th (7.0)

5.7C to the 21st (8.2)

6.0C to the 22nd (11.9) [Record:11.6C]

6.2C to the 23rd (10.8] [Record: 11.8C]  

 

A remarkably mild week coming up, with 3 daily all time records at risk, and the mildest December day on record still a possibility. It could also make it into the top 10 mildest December weeks on record.

 

Still opportunity for a cold final week to take the temps back close to average for the month, but milder than average very much favoured at this stage, perhaps a chance of the mildest since 1988.

[DAVID SNOW]

My 'bet' is the same as it was three days ago, above average is nailed.

[damianslaw]

Friday and Saturday should deliver some cooler minimas so I doubt we will see such high CET values, but yes a mild/very mild few days ahead in the southern part of the CET zone, not so in the north or Scotland still mild but nothing too exceptional.

 

The last three Christmas periods have been notably mild though, 2011 and 2012 notably so, in stark contrast to 2009 and 2010.

[Lettucing Gutted]

The last three Christmas periods have been notably mild though, 2011 and 2012 notably so, in stark contrast to 2009 and 2010.

December has completely changed in the last 4 years.  After the very cold December 2010 had gone, the December CET has been flying since then.  It seems that after oddly being the only cooling month in the 1990 through 2010 period December has finally joined all the other months in the relentless UK warming trend with perhaps only August now dropping off the warming bandwagon.

Edited December 17, 2014 by Craig Evans

[AderynCoch]

It will be absolutely ridiculous if we break daily CET records this week because the actual synoptics, though mild, don't look anything like record-breaking a la Bartlett High.

 

We struggle to get real cold from persistent NWerlies because the Arctic air is too slow getting here and gets modified along the way, but as soon as the wind direction veers even slightly south of west we're suddenly looking at temperatures of 15C and the possibility of the warmest December CET day ever! Sod's Law as far as I'm concerned (which has been in force a lot during the bland year of 2014).

Edited December 17, 2014 by AderynCoch

[Weather-history]

 

The last three Christmas periods have been notably mild though, 2011 and 2012 notably so, in stark contrast to 2009 and 2010.

Last Christmas wasn't mild, infact some places had a hint of wintriness on Christmas Eve.

[TonyH]

Snowed on the Big Day here briefly last year.

[Summer Sun]

4.8c to the 16th

 

-0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

[TonyH]

Now for jump upwards!

[BornFromTheVoid]

The MO have yesterdays maximum as 10.9C. That seems way too high to me. Mistake perhaps?

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_max_est_2014

Edited December 17, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[reef]

The MO have yesterdays maximum as 10.9C. That seems way too high to me. Mistake perhaps?

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_max_est_2014

The maximum temperature will have been at 0900 today, hence the higher value.

 

Its one of the quirks of the 0900-0900 system, in that yesterday's high maximum was actually recorded today, not to mention today's minima will have been recorded yesterday!

[BornFromTheVoid]

The maximum temperature will have been at 0900 today, hence the higher value.

 

Its one of the quirks of the 0900-0900 system, in that yesterday's high maximum was actually recorded today, not to mention today's minima will have been recorded yesterday!

 

Ok, I thought it was the case that the maximum was recorded between 9am and 9pm, and the minimum from the previous 9pm to 9am.

 

So "today's" minimum of 3.7C, when was the timeframe for that to be recorded?

[reef]

Ok, I thought it was the case that the maximum was recorded between 9am and 9pm, and the minimum from the previous 9pm to 9am.

 

So "today's" minimum of 3.7C, when was the timeframe for that to be recorded?

From 0900 yesterday to 0900 today I believe. The minimum figure goes forward to the next day when 24hr readings are taken at 0900.

 

That's why on my own AWS I've always used 0000-0000, its an utter nightmare otherwise.