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December 2014 CET forecasts (start of 2014/15 contest year)


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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

I can't see anything other than above average month unfortunately

 

6.5c

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

I can't really see it being a particularly cold month either, unless I suppose the possible forecasted Stratospheric Warming events, such as the Wave 2 activity, deliver. Though even then, it might not be until mid to late-ish December when the results of it show (if it definitely happens).

CET guess: 4.9*C

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Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

3.0C for me please.

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Always puzzles me why people make guesses this early?

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Always puzzles me why people make guesses this early?

 

Might be worthy of analysis. See if there is any correlation between the date of the CET estimate and the accuracy...

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

Always puzzles me why people make guesses this early?

 

I think the answer lies in your sentence - a guess can be made at any time. If you want to wait and analyse each model run and try to glean trends right up to zero hour, well and good; I doubt even that proves more accurate in the long term.

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

I leave it to the last day after a quick look at the models :)

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Here's a graph of the December CET with the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

 

Lb8YxF5.jpg

 

The November CET looks like finishing somewhere between 8.0 and 8.8C this year. The average December CET, following Novembers between 8.0 and 8.8C, is 4.7C.

 

The linear trend over the entire record is +0.35C per century, following this trend gives a December CET of 4.7C this year.
The linear trend since 1850 is +0.54C per century, following this trend gives a December CET of 4.9C this year
The linear trend since 1950 is +0.45C per century, following this trend gives a December CET of 4.8C this year.
The linear trend over the last 50 years is -0.44C per century, following this trend gives a December CET of 4.7C this year.
The linear trend over the last 30 years is -4.7C per century, following this trend gives a December CET of 4.1C this year.
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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

Is that likely to be anymore accurate though. :shok:

Possibly not, but I am in the top 20 most years :)

However I am getting prone to forgetfulness and not posting until 1st of late :(

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Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland

Possibly not, but I am in the top 20 most years :)

However I am getting prone to forgetfulness and not posting until 1st of late :(

Better than I'll ever be, I'm hopeless with these.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

My forecast for December a few weeks back looks potentially bust already. Though the models are starting to sniff out how December may pan out.

Changing my CET prediction from 5.5C to 4.5C

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m
  • Location: Leeds (Roundhay) 135m

Mildest of the winter months, although nothing noteworthy. Best of any cold (i.e. notable) towards towards new year/ last 1/3 of the month. Edit: i'll lower 5.0c 4.6c please; mostly average 

Edited by Mark Bayley
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Posted
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)

I'll have a bash at 4.7C.

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